Exports turnaround in November

After several months of declines, the country's merchandise exports turned positive in November 2009, logging a growth rate of 18% in dollar terms as compared to the year-ago period. Commerce Secretary, Rahul Khullar, said that the country shipped goods worth US$13.2bn in November 2009 against US$11.16bn in the same month a year ago. However, hedging his remarks with circumspection, Khullar said that exports in November have turned positive not due to a great shift in demand but because of base-side effect, as exports were at rock-bottom level last year this time.
Khullar pointed out that the country's exports during April-November 2009 at US$104.25bn are still 22.23% lower than the figure in the corresponding period of 2008 at US$134.2bn. "One should not get carried away by the November number to jump to any conclusion as you may end up making the wrong prognosis," Khullar said. Stating that it is too early to claim that Indian trade is out of the woods, Khullar said that the January-March quarter holds the key to deciding how exports would fare for the whole year. However, he said that the country's merchandise exports would be in the range of US$165bn to US$170bn this fiscal year as compared with US$182.6bn in 2008-09.