Saturday, August 4, 2007

Close: Ready for subprime levels !

This week market had roller coaster ride. The global woes had Indian markets on their knees. The huge liquidity was seen flowing out of the system. US market had the subprime market worries with the crises expected to spillover beyond the credit markets. Globally markets buckled on US woes. The worry was also fuelled by CRR hike expectations which did come in Given that these were in line with expectation, Markets rallied only to fall sharply the next day on Global woes. Though markets recovered from this, the impact will be seen gradually.

Sensex lost less than 1% this week about 105 points. There was a 670 points swing in Sensex for the week between a high of 15569 and low of 14896. Madcap index was 0.3% up. IT down 3.5%. Auto down 3%. Capital goods index 2% up. Oil and Gas 2.5% down.. The big losers included Infosys (-4%), Mahindra (-12%), MTNL -5%, Nalco - 10%, Suzon -5%, Tata Motors -6%, TCS -5%, Wipro -4%, Zee-5%, SBI was the only hewavyweight gainer up over 4% for the week clocking +9% gains.

We covered Reliance with some cautious comments on Reliance earlier in the week and the stock got whacked. Do read our views on he same in Economy: Stocks in action:

We had a note on Greenply which has been a wonderful performer. We believe that the business is now ready to catch momentum even though its up significant since we initiated coverage. The benefit of taking marketshare from the unorganised sector is expected to flow in and this is the large player with a fantastic distribution set up well placed to exploit it.

We had a detailed research note on ABG shipyard. The stock gained 14% this week. The Industry is well placed to exploit the global opportunity of ship building. The Government is backing it with a subsidy. The company managed to bag a large order and the orderbook now stands over 5500 crores. We believe that the business is good but valuations are pricing in too fine an execution. Do read the note.

There was more research as well.. including the results analysis for MoldTek, Nestle and so many more..

Technically speaking.: On a weekly closing there Sensex close was comfortable though on a daily basis the closing was below the trendline support. 15230 is a resistance but the big ones are near 15380 - 15497. In terms of support 14890 is a support but 14830 is crucial and below this markets may see more pressure.

The momentum is now broken and value buying by locals feeling left out is more likely to be met with profit taking.. making it more of a consolidative phase. We fail to find catalysts other than global bounces for markets to see further inflows and test the recent highs.

Fundamentally speaking: The results are all out and there are not many triggers left. There are hopes for an interest rate cut but with crude a $ 77 thats unlikely to happen. Growth in certain sectors has started to slow. The sectors performing are the ones which depend on Government spend. Markets may see some value buying but on valuaton basis the risks have increased given the volatility. This itself should lead to lower valuations. All in all.. we dont seem to be positive. But, thats not out of choice. We believe that the global risk of subprime lending is not play out and we have not heard the last of it. Understanding the way it works, it could grow on itself. Also the Yen carry trade is another issue we have to live with. A US rate cut is what many in the US markets are hoping for, but that would imply a weaker dollar. Having said all this we believe that there would be opportunities and we will be there looking for them for you at wow-iindia.com. Its not going to be easy and sifting through will be a tough job.

Weekly Newsletter

Global markets crack, but rebound quickly

After last week's massacre across global equity markets, the bulls got another big thrashing this week. The reason remained the same. Concerns about the trouble in the US subprime mortgage market and its wider repercussions across the global financial sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by almost 150 points on July 31, triggering off a worldwide selloff, which left a trail of destruction. However, things stabilised in the next two days, with the Dow itself climbing more than 200 points. Markets also recovered around the world.

But, despite the rebound, one can't tell whether global markets are out of the woods, as the credit woes spread to other parts of the world. IKB Deutsche Industriebank, a mid-sized lender in Germany, is being bailed out by a group of banks after admitting to steep losses stemming from its exposure to America's subprime mortgage market. Macquarie Bank, Australia's largest securities firm, said two of its high-yielding funds could post losses due to the ongoing trouble in the US subprime mortgages. Shares of Macquarie Bank had their biggest drop in five-and-a-half years.

The news came after Wall Street major Bear Stearns halted redemptions from a third hedge fund after investors demanded their money back. Two collapsed hedge funds run by Bear Stearns started bankruptcy proceedings, according to a letter sent to investors by Jeffrey Lane, CEO of the bank's asset management business. Asia Genesis Management, a hedge fund based in Singapore, said it had increased cash holdings to 95% of its assets to avoid losses.

US mortgage lender Accredited Home Lenders Holding revealed in a SEC filing it was not certain it would continue to operate. Shares of the company tumbled nearly 38% on August 2. A report stated that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. will shut shop, just two days after the mortgage lender said it was considering liquidation. Market experts expect more pain from the US subprime mortgage market. The credit squeeze has already dampened US consumer spending and is likely to do so for a while. The US subprime-market rout has got a long way to go, said Jim Rogers. " Further losses may be in store even as shares rebounded this week. This was one of the biggest bubbles we've ever had in credit." Rogers said.

YV Reddy surprises again...ups CRR by 50 bps

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor YV Reddy has made it a habit of surprising the markets. In an unexpected move, he hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points, from the current level of 6.5%. The revision will come into effect from August 4. The bank rate, the repo rate and the reverse repo rate have been kept unchanged at 6%, 7.75% and 6%. At the same time, Reddy kept the central bank's target of GDP growth and inflation rate unchanged.

The RBI also removed the Rs30bn cap on accepting excess funds from banks under the daily reverse repo auction to reduce liquidity. this move will come into effect from August 6. The RBI, however, retained the discretion to re-impose a ceiling as appropriate. Simultaneously, the second LAF, which was introduced from November 28, 2005 and is conducted between 3.00 p.m. and 3.45 p.m. on a daily basis, is withdrawn with effect from August 6.

The RBI said it will continue with its policy of active demand management of liquidity through appropriate use of the CRR stipulations and open market operations (OMO) including the MSS and LAF, using all the policy instruments at its disposal flexibly, as and when the situation warrants.

Bond prices declined while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Government bond climbed post the RBI announcement. The stock market too fell sharply initially, but rebounded sharply to close nearly 300 points up on the day.

The latest central bank measures are mainly aimed at containing inflation and mopping up excess liquidity, which could potentially put upward pressure on prices going ahead. This move will also allow the RBI to continue buying dollars to prevent rupee from appreciating further. Call rates will inch up to the level of the reverse repo rate.

Lending rates are unlikely to rise from here, though a reduction that may were looking for will not happen soon. Deposit rates, especially on the special schemes, will come down by up to 100 basis points. Some banks have already announce a cut in deposit rates. The big question is whether the RBI will be able to stem the relentless inflow of foreign money.

Bulls recover after bumpy ride

In an action packed week, bulls tried to overcome each & every battle, however, in the end they fell short to shut the week on a lower note. Ride for the bulls was bumpy following turmoil in global equity markets, high crude oil prices and CRR hike by the RBI. Volatility was at its peak, as bulls & bears struggled to find any direction, causing the indices to swing between gains & losses. Even the FIIs flows, let the bulls down, as they offloaded heavily over the week. Finally, the benchmark Sensex closed 96 points lower or down by 0.6% at 15138 and NSE Nifty fell by1 % or 44 points to close at 4402.

Profit booking was seen in Metal and Oil & Gas and Pharma stocks. While, Banking stocks advanced smartly on speculation that interest rates may slow down after inflation slowed to 4.36% in the third week of July. Oil marketing companies were on the receiving end as international crude oil prices were ruling very close to record levels. US light crude for September delivery rose 40 cents to $76.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Banking stocks recovered lost ground shrugging off impact of a 50bps hike in CRR. BSE Bank index advanced 1.6% over the week with SBI rallying by over 9% during the week, the scrip was also the top gainer among the 30-scrip's of Sensex. Others like Kotak Bank gained 6.7% to Rs762, Bank of Baroda advanced 2.6% to Rs296 and Corp Bank added 2% to Rs363. However, HDFC Bank lost 1.2% to Rs1152.

FMCG stocks continued its upward journey led by gains in Colgate, the scrip was up by over 7.5% to Rs402, Hindustan Unilever surged by over 4% to Rs204. However, ITC lost 1.2% to Rs169 on account of profit booking.

Auto stocks were in reverse gear after major auto companies announced a decline in its monthly sales figures. India's biggest motorcycle maker posted a 15% drop in sales in July after demand for the Glamour and CBZ X-treme fell. The scrip over the week lost by over 4%. M&M plunged by over 13% to Rs678, Tata Motors dropped over 6% to Rs656 and Ashok Leyland slipped 3% to Rs. However, Maruti added 2.5% to Rs850.

IT stocks continued its downward trend with BSE IT index losing by 3.5%. TCS lost by over 5% to Rs1090, Wirpo was down by 5% to Rs467, Infosys slipped by 5% to Rs1907 and Satyam Computer declined 0.5% to Rs470.

Capital Good stocks recorded smart gains. The index gained 1.8% during the week. Frontline stock L&T surged nearly by 4% to Rs2520, BHEL was up by 3.7% to Rs1720 and Punj Lloyd rose by over 3.5% to Rs275.

With major results out of the way, much will depend on the liquidity flows and the trend across the global markets.

The outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be held on Aug 7, will be closely tracked by the Indian markets. The indices will trade in a range for the coming week with global cues playing a major role, especially at start of every trading day. Investors could take comfort in defensive counters and stay invested for the long term. Adopt a strategy of sticking to 'prime' stocks and avoiding 'sub-prime' counters. As the recent meltdown proves, it better to remain in the prime bracket and ride the tide than choose sub-prime category of stocks, which could drown you.

Though, much has been talked about overstretched valuations of Indian Indices and India being considered to be the most expensive market among the emerging economies space. However, Indian markets are far behind Hang Seng Index and Shanghai's SEC Index, which in the current year gained over 70% compared to 10% returns by the Sensex in the same period.

Sleeping on your account?

In case of inactive accounts, you cannot operate it through the ATM, phone or internet banking

Shyam Kumar has three bank accounts. He routes all his transactions through two of his accounts. He never remembered when was the last time he used the third account. One fine morning, when he ran a balance enquiry, he realised that his balance amount was lower than expected. He called up the bank to find out the reason. The customer care executive replied: "Your account is inactive Sir. So we have deducted Rs 1,000 from your existing balance".

When is your savings account classified as dormant or inactive?
If you don't withdraw or carry out any transaction in your account - be it via the ATM, branch or internet, for a period of more than a year - banks consider your account as inactive. Explains a Mumbai-based branch manager of HSBC: "Usually when a customer does not operate his/her account for a year, it is classified as inactive. When the account is kept unused for almost two years, it is classified as dormant. In case of inactive accounts, you cannot operate it through the ATM, phone or internet banking."

The official also adds that: "The bank systems do not identify inactive accounts. So a customer has to walk into the branch to reactivate these accounts."

It's important to know that a bank does not consider system-generated debits (default charges or debit interest) as withdrawal. So if you do not use the account for more than a year, it will be treated as inactive even if the bank statement may depict some debit charges.

However, banks differ on the time period after which they term the account as inactive. For example, HDFC Bank terms an account as inoperative if it's out of action for a year. ICICI Bank, on the other hand, takes 15 months while foreign banks such as Citibank, HSBC and Standard Chartered classify an account as inoperative if no transactions take place in two years. While freezing the non-operative account is of a little concern, as the same can be reactivated later, what is worrisome is that most banks also slap a fee on such inactive accounts.

But there are a few others who do not levy such penal charges. But at the same time you have to exercise caution as banks might end up forfeiting your interest for the inactive period. What hurts is that the bank customer is likely to bear all these traumatic measures despite maintaining the average quarterly or monthly balances. And in case the account does not have sufficient funds to recover the penalty amount, then banks can take the liberty to close them.

Explains a senior Indian Banks Association (IBA) official: "As per the IBA model policy on bank deposits, banks have the right to transfer such unused accounts to a separate dormant or inoperative account status. This is both in the interest of the depositor as well as the bank. However, the bank will have to inform the customer, prior to freezing his/her accounts."

How do you reactivate your accounts?
If your bank account has been inactive for less than a year, you can walk into the branch for a withdrawal transaction using your cheque book. Otherwise, in the age of e-banking, you can send a message to the bank from your personal internet banking ID, instructing the bank to pass Re 1 debit and credit entries into your account. If it has been inactive for more than a year, you have to give a letter for activation of the account signed by each of the account holders. You are also required to submit a photo identity like passport or driving licence for each account holder.

How can you keep your account active?
Instead of bearing a penalty or running to the branch to reactivate your account, you can simply carry out a transaction once in a while on such unused ban accounts. This saves you from the trouble of reactivating the account and the costs attached to it. You can carry out a transaction from your account by withdrawing cash, making a cheque payment, transferring funds through either of the banking channels at least once a year.

This will ensure that your account remains active at all times. Even if you have missed to carry out that occasional transaction, you still have a last chance. A bank is liable to inform you three months prior to terming your account as inoperative.

What do banking codes say?
The onus is on the bank to inform the customers as to what period of inoperativeness could render the account as being classified as dormant or inoperative. The bank has to impart this information at the time of opening the account. Again you are bound to be informed by your bank, three months in advance that your account is likely to be classified as dormant, inoperative or treated as unclaimed account.

The consequences of not getting your account reactivated on time, including the charges for reactivation are required to be mentioned in the tariff schedule. These codes also mandate banks to tell you the procedure to be followed if you want to activate the account.

Conclusion
Now you know what it takes to keep your account inactive. So, once in a while, do pay a visit to your bank branch and ensure authorities that you are still alive and kicking!

Indo-US N-deal: 123 agreement made public

The 123 agreement, which will make the Indo-US nuclear deal operational, was finally made public earlier today. In the text of the deal there is a clause that says that the agreement will in no way be a hindrance to India's strategic programme. What is clear from the draft of the 123 agreement is that there is no legal binding commitment on India to never test again. If India does conduct a nuclear test, it will not be violating any international treaty or agreement because there is no mention of testing or detonation in this bilateral agreement.

"The United States will support an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of India's reactors," the text said. "Nuclear material, equipment and components so transferred shall not be used by the recipient party for any nuclear explosive device, for research on or development of any nuclear explosive device or for any military purpose," it said.

Puravankara Projects cuts IPO price band

Price band revised from Rs500-525 per share to Rs400-450 per share, citing adverse developments in the financial markets. Bangalore-based real estate firm Puravankara Projects Ltd. said on Friday that it had decided to revise the price band of its ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO) due to volatile market conditions. The company has revised the price band of the issue, from Rs500-525 per share. to Rs400-450 per share. "The decision was taken in view of the adverse developments in the financial markets in India over the last few days," Puravankara mentioned in a statement.

Accordingly, the issue closing period has been extended by three working days. The issue will now close on August 8 instead of the earlier closing day on August 3. The bids and any revision of bids will continue to be accepted between 10.00 am and 3.00 pm till August 8. "The shortfall in the funds raised on account of the revision in the lower end of the price band is intended to be adjusted against the general corporate requirement which has been specified in the Red Herring Prospectus," Puravankara said. The IPO of Puravankara opened for subscription on July 31.

Bird flu contained in Manipur: Govt

The Government said it had managed to contain the outbreak of Avian influenza at Chingmeirong in East Imphal district of Manipur, nine days after the so-called the so-called bird fly was notified. But, authorities are not taking any chances and continue to monitor the situation. Authorities completed health checks on thousands of people, and cleared four boys who had been suffering from fever after handling dead or sick poultry. Throat swab and tissue samples of the four boys had been sent for testing but no sign of the H5N1 virus was found. There has been no report of any unusual mortality form the surveillance zone or in any other part of Manipur, the Government said, adding that the clean-up and dis-infection was under progress.

SBI stake purchase lifts Q1 fiscal deficit

India's fiscal deficit in the first quarter of the current fiscal year touched 74.5% of the annual target, data published by the Government showed. At the end of June, the fiscal deficit stood at Rs1.12 trillion as against the budget estimate of Rs1.51 trillion. In the same period last year, the fiscal deficit was 52.3% of the annual budget projection. The Government said that the fiscal deficit was higher due to additional spending to acquire the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 59.7% stake in State Bank of India (SBI). After excluding this transaction, the fiscal deficit up to June is Rs768.73bn. This expenditure will be neutralized by realising an equal amount of receipts from the RBI during the course of this financial year, the Government said today.

June exports up 14% yoy

India's merchandise exports grew by 14% to US$11.87bn in June from US$10.41bn in the same month a year earlier, the Government said. In May, exports were up 18% at US$11.86bn while in April they rose by 23% to US$10.58bn. Imports jumped by nearly 37% to US$19.2bn from US$14.04bn in June 2006. As a result, the trade deficit for the month is up at US$7.33bn as against US$3.64bn in the corresponding month last year. Cumulative exports during April-June 2007-08 were up 18.1% at US $3434.3bn as against US $29.04bn during the same period last year. Year-to-date imports were up 34.3% at US$54.91bn versus US$40.89bn in the same period last year. The trade deficit for April-June, 2007 was estimated at US $20.61bn compared to US $11.84bn during April-June 2006-07.

Mfg sector slows in July: PMI

Manufacturing activity in India touched its lowest level in more than two years, as the series of monetary tightening measures started pinching the industry and a rising rupee hurt exports. The ABN Amro Bank purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.9 in July from 53.2 in June. It was the lowest reading since the series began in April 2005. A reading above 50.0 signals expansion while anything below 50.0 means contraction. The PMI hit a peak of 59.3 in October 2006. It has been falling since then, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unleashed a slew of monetary tightening steps to reign in inflation amid a fast-growing economy. The central bank has raised its key lending rate five times since June 2006, and jacked up Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) four times since December 2006.

REL wins revised auction for Sasan project

Reliance Energy Ltd. (REL) won the revised bid for the Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project (UMPP). The Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) company bid Rs1.19 per unit for the 4,000-MW project in Madhya Pradesh. It may be recalled that last week, the Government officially disqualified the Lanco Infratech-Globeleq consortium, alleging misrepresentation of financial data and the subsequent withdrawal of Globeleq from the consortium. Lanco had apparently bid Rs1.19 per unit in the first auction. REL had previously bid Rs1.29 per unit. Other suitors in the race for the Sasan project were NTPC and Jaiprakash Associates.

IFCI vaults as stake sale optimism improves

Shares of IFCI jumped after a financial daily reported that the public sector term lender's Board would meet on August 4, to consider inviting bids for the proposed stake sale. IFCI proposes to sell up to 26% stake in the company, and the process is expected to be completed in six months. The newspaper also reported that British bank Barclays is willing to offer a huge premium. The stock closed the week at Rs60.70. The paper also said that Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and several Indian banks have shown interest in acquiring stake in IFCI. Ernst & Young (E&Y) has been appointed as the consultant for the proposed stake sale in IFCI.

JSW Steel to buy US plant: report

JSW Steel Ltd. plans to acquire a US steel plant for as much as US$1.2bn, Managing Director Sajjan Jindal was quoted as saying by a foreign newswire agency. "We're close to buying a steel-plate mill in the US," Jindal said in an interview on July 26. However, he refused to comment on whether the target was a plant owned by pipe maker Jindal SAW Ltd., which plans to sell its steel-plate mill in the US. Some of the semi-finished slabs from India will be shipped to the US mill, according to Jindal. "The cost at the US plant can be significantly lowered if we ship the steel from India and add value there," Jindal said.

Tata Steel ups contribution for Corus buy

Tata Steel decided to increase its contribution towards the takeover of Corus from US$6.7bn to US$7.4bn, to cover additional costs and working capital requirement of the Anglo-Dutch steel maker. This increase will essentially be covered by increasing the amount of the Rights Issue of 2% Convertible Preference Shares from Rs43.5bn up to about Rs60bn, Tata Steel said. The Rights Issue will remain the same i.e. in the ratio of 1:5 at a price of Rs300 per share, it added. In April, Tata Steel announced the acquisition of Corus for about US$12.9bn. This was to be funded by Tata Steel UK's debt of about US$6.14bn, and equity contributions from Tata Steel and Tata Steel Asia. But, the consideration did not include the working capital of Corus. After the acquisition, the enterprise value, including all the debt and costs, is estimated to be about US$13.7bn. The balance funds required would be raised through appropriately structured issues in the foreign markets, Tata Steel said.

Air Deccan takeover...SEBI seeks details from UB

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) sought details from United Breweries (Holdings) and its merchant banker Edelweiss on the funding options for acquiring an additional 20% stake in Deccan Aviation. The capital market regulator pulled up UB Holdings for wrongly stating that it had not raised any questions on the proposed open offer for Deccan Aviation. SEBI termed UB Holding's announcement as inaccurate, adding that the company and its merchant bankers have not furnished details about the financing despite repeated reminders. The draft letter of offer was submitted with SEBI on June 19. The offer was to open on July 25 and close on August 13. However, on July 25, UB Holdings said the open offer schedule will be revised, as it had not received any observation SEBI.

Boeing ups aircraft projection for India

Boeing increased its estimate for new aircraft requirements from India to 911 new planes over the next 20 years from an earlier projection of 856 aircraft. These planes will be worth more than US$86bn as against an earlier estimate of US$72bn. "The Boeing company detailed its current market outlook for India projecting India's need for 911 new commercial airplanes worth more than US$86bn over next 20 years," Dinesh Keskar, Senior Vice-President (Sales), Boeing said in a statement. India would need at least 53 more twin-aisle aircraft, Keskar said

Genpact shares rise nearly 20% on NYSE debut

Genpact Ltd. made a sparkling debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 2 after raising less than expected US$494mn in the biggest ever US listing by an Indian company. The stock surged by 19.64% to close the maiden trading day at US$16.75 after touching a high of US$17.10 and a low of US$13.63. Traded volume on the counter were 18.49mn shares. Genpact had priced 35.29mn shares at US$14 apiece. The company had announced a pricing of US$16-18 per share in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) till as late as July 30. The IPO gives Genpact an initial market capitalisation of about US$2.9bn.

Punj Lloyd forms realty JV with Ramprastha Group

Punj Lloyd Ltd., a global EPC player in the energy and infrastructure sector, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Ramprastha Group for the development of multi-storied residential housing through a 50:50 joint venture (JV). The MOU envisages development of residential apartments in Ghaziabad on a 29-acre land in the first phase, Punj Lloyd said. In the second phase, substantial real estate development is proposed in Indrapuram and Gurgaon, where the Ramprastha Group holds a large land bank, it added. Punj Lloyd (or its affiliates) is expected to invest Rs1.8bn in the JV and a similar investment is planned by the Ramprastha Group.

Separately, Punj Lloyds also signed an agreement to acquire a 25.1% stake in Pipavav Shipyard Ltd. for Rs4.03bn. The investment is subject to receipt of corporate and statutory approvals and satisfaction of certain conditions precedent. This is a strategic investment by the company to support the growth of its business in the offshore sector, Punj Lloyd said.

Everonn Systems shares quadruple on listing

Everonn Systems Ltd. made a spectacular debut on the bourses on August 1 despite an overall weakness in the market, as investors scrambled to buy the shares of the knowledge solution company. The stock opened at Rs245 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) as against the issue price of Rs140 per share. The scrip ended the week at Rs474.90 after touching a high of Rs560.

Shares of Simplex Projects Ltd. jumped as much as 75% on August 3 after the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the civil construction company received an overwhelming response. The stock opened at Rs323.75 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) as against the issue price of Rs185 per share. The scrip finished at Rs272 after touching a high of Rs323.75 and a low of Rs266.70.

Take Solutions IPO subscribed 1.15 times

The Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Take Solutions Ltd. has been subscribed by 2.23 times. The company received bids for 4.81mn shares as against the issue size of 2.1mn shares. The oversubscription is thanks largely to the Qualified Institutional Investors (QIB). The shares reserved for this category were fully subscribed, while the non-institutional and retail categories had not seen any action so far. The issue will close for subscription on August 7. The price for the IPO has been fixed between Rs675 and Rs730 per share.

Central Bank fixes issue price at Rs102

Central Bank of India has fixed the issue price at Rs102 per share for the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of 80,000,000 shares of Rs 10 each. The price has been determined through the 100% book building process. The issue opened for subscription on July 24 and closed on July 27. It was subscribed approximately 62 times and received over 7.80 lakh applications. The QIB portion was subscribed about 89 times, non institutional 69.47 times and retail 16.01 times. Employee portion was subscribed 1.76 times. Post the issue, the shareholding of the Government of India in the bank will come down to 80.20%.

Oil hits new lifetime high; retreats later

Crude oil for September delivery fell 16 cents to US$76.86 a barrel in the first four days of trading this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched a record US$78.77 a barrel on Aug. 1 after a US Government report showed a larger than expected drop in crude inventories. However, oil prices declined on the next two days as the report showed a steep jump in refinery activity and an increase in gasoline inventories. The build in gasoline stockpiles was particularly significant in that it comes at the height of the summer driving season. US oil supplies fell 6.5mn barrels to 344.5mn barrels last week, leaving inventories 12% above the five-year average, Energy Department figures showed. Gasoline, diesel and heating oil supplies rose as refineries operated at 93.6% capacity, the highest since the week ended June 23, 2006. Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell 29 cents to US$76.57 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe, on Friday. September Brent crude dropped 15 cents to US$75.61 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

BOE, ECB keep key rates unchanged

The Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) left their benchmark interest rate unchanged, as both the central banks assess the impact of the previous tightening measures. The BOE held its key rate steady at a six-year high of 5.75% following five increases in less than a year. Economists had expected the British central bank to maintain status quo this month. The ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high of 4% after eight increases since late 2005. However, most economists expect ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to signal another rate increase at a press conference. Meanwhile, the BOE plans to wait for new inflation and growth forecasts before deciding whether further moves are needed. Inflation in the UK has held above the central bank's 2% target for 14th month in a row.

Japan's industrial output rebounds in June

Japan's industrial production expanded for the first time in four months in June, ending the worst manufacturing slump in almost two years, thanks to improved performance by electronics parts makers and automobile industry. Production rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% from May, halting three months of declines, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry said. Economists had forecast a gain of 1% in Japanese industrial output. What's more, manufacturers expect the output to grow by 1.8% in July and 4.9% in August, the Trade Ministry said. Industrial output had fallen marginally the previous three months, by 0.3% in May, 0.2% in April and 0.3% in March.

China asks banks to set aside more funds

In yet another move to curb excess lending, China's central bank announced it would increase reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% for commercial banks beginning from August 15. The latest increase in the reserve requirement, announced by the People's Bank of China, is the sixth such increase this year, and was widely anticipated. It will take the ratio to 12% from 11.5%. The Chinese central bank said the move was aimed at strengthening management of liquidity in the banking system and rationalising lending growth. "The increase in the reserve ratio will help control liquidity in the banking system and slow loan growth," the People's Bank of China said. The move came barely 10 days after China raised its interest rates by 0.27%, and cut the tax on interest from bank deposits to 5% from 20%.

Murdoch clinches Dow Jones deal

After dragging its feet for three months, the Bancroft-family finally said yes to Rupert Murdoch's proposed offer for buying Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. The Dow Jones Board yesterday approved the US$5.5bn bid from News Corp., says The Journal. Murdoch's US$60-a-share bid is 65% higher than Dow Jones's stock price on April 30, the day before Murdoch's proposal was announced. The Australian media tycoon (76) will get the most coveted newspaper brand in the US. The Journal will now become part of News Corp's global media portfolio, which ranges from the Fox television network to the Times of London. The Journal reports that a key Bancroft family trust reversed its decision and agreed to support the News Corp. deal, meaning that votes representing about 37% of Dow Jones' shareholder vote are now in favor of selling to Murdoch.

ABN Amro no more backing Barclays bid

ABN Amro, subject of a pitched battle between Barclays and a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), said it was no longer recommending the offer by the British bank. The Dutch bank said that while the Barclays offer is in line with its "strategic vision," its managing and supervisory boards are not currently in a position to recommend it from "a financial point of view". ABN Amro said it could not recommend the consortium offer either, citing significant unresolved questions about the proposed break-up of the company. The Dutch lender said it would further engage with both parties with the aim of continuing to ensure a level playing field. Barclays' cash-and-shares offer is worth €65.6bn (US$90bn) while the RBS consortium has made a bid of €72bn (US$98.3bn). As at July 27, an offer from the RBS group was at a premium of 8.5% to the ABN Amro market price and of 9.6% to the Barclays bid.

Market posts second straight weekly loss

The market settled on a weak note as they posted weekly loss fir the second straight as markets across the globe were gripped under corrected. Volatility was intense throughout the week. Despite the market gaining in 4 sessions out of 5, they settled lower.

The benchmark index BSE Sensex lost 96 points or 0.63% at 15,138.40; while the S&P CNX Nifty lost 44 points or 0.96% at 4401.55, for the week ended 3 August 2007.

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 26.34 points at 15,260.91 with shares from banking sector and select real estate stocks gained on speculative buying ahead of RBI's monetary policy on Tuesday, 31 July 2007

On 31 July 2007, the BSE 30-share Sensex galloped 290.08 points at 15,550.99 despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasing the CRR (cash to reserve ratio) by 50 bps to 7%.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex plunged 615.22 points to settle at 14,935.77, on 1 August 2007, its third biggest single day point fall ever. It opened with a downward gap on intense selling pressure on global meltdown

Sensex gained 49.93 points at 14,985.70 on 2 August 2007, on support from global markets

Recovery continued a day later as the Sensex advanced 152.70 points at 15,138.40 on 3 August 2007, with all the sectoral indices on BSE posting gains. Shares from real estate, banking and cement were in demand.

State Bank of India (SBI), the country's biggest commercial bank advanced 9.06% after it posted 78.6% jump in net profit to Rs 1,425.81 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Net interest income was up 15% at Rs. 4,497.40 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Reliance Industries (RIL) declined 3.49% after it reported 28.1% growth in net profit to Rs 3264 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Revenue rose 14.4% to Rs 28056 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Gross refining margin (GRM) for the quarter was $15.4 per barrel, highest in the company's history.

India's largest power equipment Bhel rose 3.61% as it posted 22% growth in net profit to Rs 288.9 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. At the end of Q1 June 2007, Bhel had an outstanding order book position of around Rs 62,400 crore.

India's second largest listed telecom service provider in terms of sales, Reliance Communications advanced 3.83% to Rs 561.40 after its net profit soared 76.58% to Rs 837.3 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income rose 18.21% to Rs 3229.69 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

IT stocks declined on fresh selling as the Indian rupee firmed against the US dollar. TCS, Wipro, Infosys and Satyam Computers, all edged lower.

Auto stocks suffered setback during the week on fall in monthly sales figures for July 2007. India's top bus and truck maker Tata Motors lost 3.64%. Its vehicle sales fell 6.6% in July 2007 to 42,098 units over July 2006. Sales of commercial vehicles dropped 3.8% to 20,705 units in July 2007 over July 2006. Exports fell 17% to 4,382 units.

India's top motorcycle maker Hero Honda Motors shed 3.99%. It sold 2,01,191 units in July 2007, down 14.5 % from 2,35,314 sold in June 2006. The announcement was made after trading hours.

Top utility vehicle maker Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) declined 12.74%, despite its sales rising 46% in July 2007 to 19,163 units over July 2006. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack

However India's top small-car maker Maruti Udyog rose 2.48%. It reported an 18% rise in sales in domestic market to 52,839 units in July 2007 over July 2006. It exported 5,070 units, up from 1,755 units in July 2006.

Everonn Systems India settled at Rs 478.45 on BSE, a 241.75% premium over the offer price of Rs 140, on 1 August 2007. The Everonn Systems India scrip debuted at Rs 245 on BSE and touched a high of Rs 560 and a low of Rs 245 during the day.

The central bank, on 31 July 2007 left the reverse repo rate, the rate at which it absorbs excess cash from banks, unchanged at 6%. It also kept bank rate unchanged at 6%. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasing the CRR (cash to reserve ratio) by 50 bps to 7% from 6.5% (100 bps is equal to 1%). The RBI said it will endeavor to contain inflation close to 5% in 2007-08 and in the range of 4–4.5% over the medium term. It also maintained its FY 2008 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 8.5%. The central bank also removed the Rs 3,000 crore cap on daily reverse repo transaction from 6 August 2007, the window through which it absorbs liquidity in a bid to check volatility in call money rates.

India's trade deficit in June 2007 widened to $7.33 billion, data released yesterday, 1 August 2007, showed. Imports surged 36.7% to $19.2 billion in June 2007, while exports rose 14% to $11.87 billion, over June 2006.

The Bank of England on 2 August 2007 left interest rates on hold at 5.75% as expected. On the same day, the European Central Bank (ECB) also has kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4%.

As per the latest data released on 3 August 2007, wholesale price index stood at 4.36% in the week to 21 July 2007, compared with 4.41% the previous week The government also revised the inflation rate for the week ended 26 May 2007 to 5.15% from 4.85%

Sensex ends firm on Lower inflation numbers

The market continued its winning trend for the second consecutive session. Today, the market opened 75 points higher tracking the positive global cues and remained above 15,200 level for the major part of the session. Sustained buying thereafter in capital goods, cement and banking stocks helped the Sensex touch the intra-day high of 15,236, up 250 points to its previous close. The index also received support from State Bank of India and ACC. The market remained firm in mid-session trades on lower inflation numbers as inflation declined to 4.36% during the week ended July 21 as compared with 4.41% for the previous week as some essential food items like pulses, fruits and eggs turned cheaper. However, the market slipped towards the close on profit bookings in select frontline stocks and ended the session at 15,138, up 153 points. The broad based Nifty closed the session at 4,401 by adding 45 points.

The market breadth was positive. Of the 2,606 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,339 stocks advanced, 999 stocks declined and 68 stocks ended unchanged. All the sectoral indices ended higher. The BSE Realty index gained 2.15%, followed by the BSE CD index (up 2.09%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.56%) and the BSE CG index (up 1.44%).

Among the heavyweights, SBI soared 2.72% at Rs1,636, NTPC advanced 2.34% at Rs166, HDFC added 2.24% at Rs1,989, ACC scaled up 2.06% at Rs1,003, Grasim rose 1.78% at Rs1,961 and Hindalco jumped 1.75% at Rs162. Tata Steel, Maruti Udyog, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Auto gained over 1% each. Among the laggards Ranbaxy dropped 1.40% at Rs366, Dr Reddy's Lab lost 1.28% at Rs623, Ambuja Cement, Bharti Airtel, Reiance Industries and HDFC Bank were marginally down.

Realty stocks registered strong gains. Indiabulls Real Estate surged 4.96% at Rs538, Peninsula Land advanced 3.94% at Rs441, Akruti Nirman gained 2.78% at Rs551 and DLF soared 2.66% at Rs602.

Over 2.66 crore IFCI shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (83.76 lakh shares), Simplex Projects (67.19 lakh shares), Reliance Petroleum (42.32 lakh shares) and Manglore Chemicals (38.30 lakh shares).

Reliance Industries was the most actively traded counter on the BSE with a turnover of Rs193 crore followed by Simplex Projects (Rs188 crore), IFCI (Rs158 crore), GMR Infrastructure (Rs154 crore) and Unitech (Rs146 crore).

Nifty settles above 4,400

The market edged higher for second consecutive day today, 3 August 2007, after Wednesday's bloodbath that was triggered by setback in global markets. The market saw steady buying interest throughout the day on sustained buying demand for index pivotals. Positive cues from US and Asian markets boosted the sentiment. All the sectoral indices on BSE posted gains. Shares from real estate, banking and cement were in demand. Pharma shares were subdued.

The BSE 30-share Sensex advanced 152.70 points or 1.02% at 15,138.40. It opened with an upward gap of 75.43 points at 15,061.13 and surged to a hit an intra-day high of 15,235.51

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 45.20 points or 1.04% at 4,401.55. The Nifty August 2007 futures settled at 4357, a discount of 34.55 points as compared to spot closing.

The market breadth was strong with small-cap and mid-cap stocks seeing buying interest. On BSE, there were close to 1.5 gainers for every loser: 1,581 shares advanced as compared to 1,081 that declined, while 73 remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 89.82 points or 1.38% at 6,605.24 and the BSE Small-Cap index inched higher by 86.08 points or 1.10% at 7,891.54.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3981 crore as compared to Rs 4,435.42 crore on Thursday, 2 August 2007

NSE's F&O turnover amounted to Rs 44285.38 crore as compared to Rs 38,783.38 crore crore on Thursday, 2 August 2007

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 23 advanced while 7 slipped.

India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India (SBI) rose 2.53% to Rs 1633, on 7.05 lakh shares, after gaining 2.95% on Thursday, 2 August 2007. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack

SBI is holding talks with potential partners for its non-life insurance venture. It is keeping options open for going alone in the general insurance business. The bank plans to set up a holding company to transfer its share holding in its insurance and asset management subsidiaries. The new holding company, valued between $5 billion to $7 billion, would eventually be listed.

Other banking scrips also posted gains after the release of inflation data in afternoon today, 3 August 2007. The BSE Bankex gained 101.71 points or 1.28% at 8,048.51. The wholesale price index was 4.36% in the week to 21 July 2007, compared with 4.41% the previous week The government also revised the inflation rate for the week ended 26 May 2007 to 5.15% from 4.85%.

Dena Bank (up 1.16% to Rs 52.40), Oriental Bank of Commerce (up 1.67% to Rs 231.50), Punjab National Bank (up 0.40% to Rs 498), Bank of India (up 0.52% to Rs 243.90), Bank of Baroda (up 1.53% to Rs 296), Axis Bank (up 0.25% to Rs 622) and ICICI Bank (up 1.73% to Rs 915.95) gained.

India's largest power generation firm NTPC soared 2.50% to Rs 166.35. Chhattisgarh State Electricity Board (CSEB) has made a written offer to NTPC to set up three mega power projects in the state in a joint venture. The plants will come up at Aklatra, Lara and Godna hamlets in Raigarh district. NTPC and the CSEB will have equity ratio of 74-26% ,while the production share will be in ratio of 51-49%.

India's largest cigarette manufacturer ITC advanced 0.63% to Rs 168.80 on follow-up buying after foreign brokerage CLSA recently raised its price target to Rs 184, and upgraded it to buy from underperformer.

Reliance Energy (REL), India's second largest power generation and distribution company in terms of sales, eased from day's high of Rs 772, to settle 0.10% lower at Rs 751.40. The stock had gained 2% yesterday, 2 August 2007 on reports it has emerged as the sole bidder for a Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) power project in the Purulia district of West Bengal. The REL stock has surged 23% in the past one month.

Cement stocks gained for the second consecutive day as buying continued in anticipation of firm cement prices. India's second largest cement producer ACC surged 1.72% to Rs 1000. It gained 2% yesterday, 2 August 2007 after its cement dispatches jumped 14.68% to 16.4 lakh tonnes in July 2007 over July 2006.

Grasim gained 2.07% to Rs 2968.95 while UltraTech Cement rose 0.67% to Rs 905.10. The Aditya Birla Group said on Wednesday its cement shipments rose 13.1% to 24 lakh tonnes in July 2007 over July 2006. Grasim and UltraTech Cement belong to the Aditya Birla Group

However, Ambuja Cements lost 1% to Rs 129 on profit booking. Its cement dispatches rose 20% to 13.9 lakh tonnes in July 2007 over July 2006.

Interest-rate sensitive auto shares hardened on a view that interest rates will remain steady with inflation under control. The BSE Auto Index rose 49.57 points or 1.04% at 4796.65. Mahindra & Mahindra (up 0.44% to Rs 678.80), Bajaj Auto (up 1.63% to Rs 2330) and Tata Motors (up 0.69% to Rs 656.70) logged gains.

The country's top small car manufacturer Maruti Udyog gained 1.40% to Rs 848 after its total vehicles sales rose 24.8% to 57,909 vehicles in July 2007 over July 2006. The company sold 52,839 vehicles in the domestic market in July 2007, a rise of 18.33% over the same period last year.

Reliance Industries (RIL), the country's largest private sector company, slipped from day's high of Rs 1838.90, and settled unchanged at Rs 1801.30, on 10.63 lakh shares. As per reports, the government is likely to clear the price quoted by RIL for its gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin without seeking to control the price.

IT pivotals posted modest gains, with the BSE IT index rising 55.19 points or 1.19% at 4704.30. Second biggest software services exporter Infosys rose 0.97% to Rs 1918 on reports that it has signed a multi-year agreement with Canadian Pacific (CP) to provide modular global sourcing services.

Satyam Computers (up 1.20% to Rs 471.80) and Wipro (up 1.48% to Rs 469.10) gained. However, India's largest software services provider TCS lost 0.12% to Rs 1094.

Mid-cap software stocks outperformed large-cap IT stocks. i-flex Solutions (up 6.53% to Rs 2169), MphasiS (up 5.92% to Rs 306), Financial Technologies (up 3.24% to Rs 2530) and Patni Computers (up 1.85% to Rs 438.30) advanced.

India's biggest housing finance company HDFC rose 1.69% to Rs 1978 on reports that it has shortlisted three foreign firms for a stake in its insurance venture and will select one of them within 15 days. HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh told shareholders last month that foreign firms were willing to pay a premium for the stake in the insurance company.

Capital goods favorites Bhel and L&T moved up. Bhel gained 0.79% to Rs 1712.20, while L&T rose 1.34% to Rs 2521.10

Pharma shares dipped on selling pressure. Dr Reddy's was the top loser from the Sensex pack. It slipped 1.10% to Rs 624 on 89,870 shares. Ranbaxy Laboratories lost 0.93% to Rs 368.

However Cipla gained at the fag end of the day and was up 0.70% to Rs 187.15, from its low of Rs 184.

Simplex Projects settled at Rs 272.05 on BSE, a premium of 47% over IPO price of Rs 185. The stock had hit a low of Rs 266.70 and a high of Rs 323.75. On BSE, 67.19 lakh shares had changed hands in the counter on BSE. Simplex Projects IPO had received overwhelming investor response. The IPO was subscribed 85.53 times

Battered real-estate stocks, the worst hit in Wednesday, 1 August 2007's market meltdown, gained for the second straight day today on bargain hunting. The BSE Realty index was up 160.51 points or 2.15% to 7618.30. It was the top performing sectoral index on BSE. Unitech (up 0.84% to Rs 536.10), DLF (up 2.22% to Rs 599.70), Orbit Corporation (up 10.20% to Rs 369.50) and Indiabulls Real Estate (up 4.59% to Rs 536) edged higher.

Jindal Stainless rose 2.20% to Rs 157.15 on reports it is planning a foray into the Russian market by setting up a greenfield facility there. In the first phase, Jindal Stainless may invest up to $60 million in an integrated stainless steel facility in Leningrad. The plant will have a capacity to make 4 lakh tonnes of stainless steel per year.

JSW Steel lost 2.06% to Rs 679.50 despite registering a growth of 18% to 2.37 lakh tonnes in crude steel production in July 2007 over July 2006. Hot rolled (HR) coils production grew 9% to 2.14 lakh tonnes in July 2007 over July 2006. HR plates production grew 15% to 0.18 lakh tonnes in July 2007 over July 2006.

Apar Industries rose 1.12% to Rs 211.65 after it bagged large export orders for aluminium conductors used for power transmission lines from giant trunk-key operators based in North Africa and Kazakhstan. The order will be executed by its conductor division and is valued at Rs 111.50 crore.

Gitanjali Gems moved higher by 1.15% to Rs 273 after a block deal of 5.5 lakh shares was struck on the counter at Rs 272 on BSE at 12:04 IST.

Accentia Technologies jumped 5% to Rs 184 on the company bagging a first order of euro 2.10 million for its hospital process management suite. The customisation and implementation of the suite at 5 locations will take about 12 months.

Jaiprakash Associates gained 2.91% to Rs 826.45 on reports of its foray into the steel sector with the acquisition of Malvika Steel in Jagdishpur, Uttar Pradesh, for Rs 207 crore.

Era Constructions India surged 5% to Rs 521.60 after it bagged an order from NTPC for main plant and offsite civil works package for Simhadri super thermal power projects, Stage-II (2 X 500 MW), in Andhra Pradesh, on works contract basis. The value of the contract is about Rs 136.33 crore and will be executed over 43 months.

Punj Lloyd jumped 2.64% to Rs 274.40 on signing a memorandum of understanding to invest Rs 403 crore for acquiring a 25.1% stake in Pipavav Shipyard. This will provide it an access to fabrication facilities for platforms, rigs and jackets to exploit the opportunities in this sector.

Sundram Fasteners rose 1.48% to Rs 54.85 on acquiring 100% share capital of PUT Grundstucks GmbH in Peine, Germany. The investment would be around euro 30,000.

GMR Infrastructure, a Rs 1000-crore Bangalore-based infrastructure company with a focus on airports, power and roads, galloped 8.95% to Rs 836 after its unit developing a new international airport in Hyderabad selected Apollo Hospitals to set up a medical centre at the upcoming passenger terminal. Apollo Hospitals rose nearly 4% to Rs 508.40.

Deccan Aviation dropped 1.48% to Rs 139.95 after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) raised queries regarding United Breweries (Holdings)'s open offer for Deccan Aviation. UB (Holdings) said on 25 July 2007 that the schedule for the open offer would be revised. UB (Holdings) made the public announcement for the open offer a few days after it bought 26% in Deccan for Rs 550 crore in May 2007.

Truck maker Eicher Motors rose 5.31% to Rs 385 after the company said on today, 3 August 2007, its commercial vehicle sales in rose 9% to 2,363 units in July 2007 over July 2006.

Divi's Labs settled at Rs 1304 compared to yesterday's, 2 August 2007, closing price of Rs 6368.25 after a 5-for1- stock split was effected in the counter today.

Most of the Asian indices advanced, 3 August, reacting to a US rally. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (up 1.20% at 9,058.23), Hong Kong's Hang Seng (up 0.42% at 22,538.44), Shanghai Composite (up 3.47% to 4,560.74) and South Korea's Seoul Composite (up 1.28% at 1,876.80) advanced.

However, and Japan's Nikkei slipped marginally by 0.03% at 16,979.86 European shares slipped after firm opening today, 3 August 2007.

Wall Street shares advanced after solid readings on corporate earnings and the job market calmed some of investors' anxiety about a tight credit market. The Dow rose 100.96 points, or 0.76, to 13,463.33. The Standard & Poor's 500 index picked up 6.39 points, or 0.44%, closing at 1,472.20, while the Nasdaq Composite index rose 22.11 points, or 0.87%, to 2,575.98.

Oil hovered near $77 a barrel on Friday, 3 August 2007 keeping in sight of this week's fresh record high after OPEC officials poured cold water on US hopes for an output rise, reiterating that the world was not short of crude supplies. US oil was unchanged at $76.86 a barrel. Prices touched an all-time high of $78.77 on Wednesday, but sharply retreated on signs of improved US refinery operations.

Friday, August 3, 2007

Market may resume on a positive note

The market may open on a positive note on yesterday's gains in US markets and firm Asian markets in current trades. Major Asian indices like Nikkei, Hang Seng and Kospi are trading with the gains of around 50 points each. However, caution should be maintained on account of the prevalence of a intra-day volatility. Among the local indices, The Nifty has a short-term support is at 4300 and could test higher levels around 4420. The Sensex on the upside may touch 15135 level and has a support at 14900.

US indices registered gains on Thursday, despite subprime and credit market fears. While the Dow Jones gained by 101 points at 13463, the Nasdaq advanced by 22 points at 2576.

Indian ADRs had a mixed outing on US bourses. Patni Computer fell sharply and tumbled over 3.85% while MTNL, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, VSNL and Rediff declined over 1-3% each. However, Infosys, Satyam, Wipro, HDFC Bank and Dr Reddy's Lab ended with steady gains.

The Nymex light crude oil for September series gained by 33 cents at $76.86 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for December delivery rose by 70 cents to settle at $676.60 an ounce.

Desperately seeking stability!

A truly stable system expects the unexpected, is prepared to be disrupted, waits to be transformed.

Some stability appears on the horizon with most global markets posting gains overnight and Asian markets too holding their ground. The bulls failed to hold on to their gains on Thursday amid continuing worries about the impact of global meltdown on the local market. The rally also lacked conviction due to the lower traded volumes. This probably implies that it was more of a short covering than fresh buying. The market breadth was also marginally positive. It would be wise to wait for the current weak phase to pass before taking a fresh call. Avoid fresh long positions.

The outlook for today is positive at open, but avoid fresh buying unless you are taking position for the long term. Defensive stocks like HLL and potential doublers like RPL could be accumulated for the long haul.

Though, the subprime woes in the US and trouble in the credit markets are unlikely to have a direct bearing on India, indirectly, it may affect foreign inflows. So, the writing is on the wall: Keep a close watch on the trend in FII inflows. A sharp reversal in fund flows to emerging markets could lead to a fresh carnage worldwide. Though India is insulated due to its local-centric economy, the growing integration with the global markets will ensure some pain in the short term.

Players with weak hearts and equally weak portfolio should be careful while long-term investors should cash in on the opportunity. Give yourself a much needed break after a rollercoaster ride. In fact, the movie 'Cash' opens in theaters today. It is a story of a bunch of thieves who pull off a daring heist involving priceless diamonds. As investors, take your time identifying priceless stocks you could add to your portfolio. Avoid the 'daring' part for the time being.

Car makers like Maruti, Tata Motors and M&M may come under some pressure amid reports that the Urban Development Ministry has sought a special tax on four-wheelers, citing lack of adequate infrastructure. Deccan Aviation will also be in action as SEBI has sought details on funding from the UB Group. Petronet LNG is also likely to be in focus as the company will move the Supreme Court to vacate the stay given by the Ahmedabad High Court restraining it from adopting a new pricing formula. TV18 could also gain amid reports that it proposes to buy 50% in MTV Networks India for Rs2bn.

US stocks rallied for the third time this week after consumer and media companies reported better-than-forecast earnings. The S&P 500 added 6.39 points, or 0.4%, to 1472.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 100.96 points, or 0.8%, to 13,463.33 and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 22.11 points, or 0.9%, to 2575.98.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 4.77%. The dollar weakened 0.2% against the euro on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show US companies added fewer jobs in July.

Subprime concerns resurfaced after mortgage lender Accredited Home Lenders Holding revealed in a SEC filing it was not certain it would continue to operate. Shares of the company tumbled nearly 38%. Adding to the subprime related woes, a report stated that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. will shut shop on Friday, just two days after the mortgage lender said it was considering liquidating its assets.

The US subprime-market rout has got a long way to go, says Jim Rogers. Further losses may be in store even as shares rebounded this week, says Rogers.

Oil prices remained near record highs reached earlier this week as US light crude for September delivery rose 40 cents to $76.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting 4 cents lower at $76.82 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

Treasury prices climbed, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 4.77% from 4.79%. The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen. COMEX gold for December gained 70 cents to $676.60 an ounce.

European shares advanced, spurred by better than expected earnings from the likes of Unilever, Nokia, France Telecom and Societe Generale. Investors also picked up shares in the beleaguered financial services sector after a raft of high-profile banks, including Credit Suisse reported strong profit growth.

The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.7% to 376.56. The German DAX 30 closed up 0.8% at 7,534.13, the French CAC-40 increased 0.5% to 5,682.07 and the UK's FTSE 100 advanced 0.8% to 6,300.30.

Most major Latin American equity markets rose. In Sao Paulo, the benchmark Bovespa index finished up 457 points, or 0.8%, at 54,690.02. Mexico's IPC index rose 1.2% to 30,394.81 and Argentina's Merval rose 0.4% to 2,186.64. In Santiago, the benchmark IPSA finished flat at 3,326.45. Among the other emerging markets, the RTS index in Russia gained 0.5% to 1956.

Asian markets were trading marginally higher this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo was flat at 16,980 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong too was static at 22,442. The Kospi in Seoul climbed 20 points to 1874 and the Straits Times in Singapore was down 7 points at 3427.

Markets ended marginally up after witnessing a seesaw trading session. After a jerky start key indices took off as Sensex gained almost 200 points touching an intra-day high of 15134. However, later as the session progressed selling pressure in the heavyweights like Infosys, ONGC, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank dragged the benchmark Sensex to hit a low of 14896. Shares of Auto and Technology witnessed profit booking while Realty and Banking stocks were in the limelight.

Finally, BSE 30-share Sensex gained 50 points to close at 14985 hitting an intra-day low of 14896. NSE-50 added 10 points to close at 4356 touching an in intra-day high of 4399 and a low of 4327.

IFCI surged by over 7% to Rs56 amid reports that the Board of Directors of the company would meet on August 4 to consider inviting bids from the interested strategic investors. Among the prominent names doing the rounds are Barclays, Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs57 and a low of Rs53 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

Gujarat Ambuja advanced by 1.3% to Rs130 after the company's July sales rose 20% to 1.39mn tons. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs135 and a low of Rs127 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.

Hindustan Dorr was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs113.75 after the company announced that it has secured Rs700mn order from Bharat Oman refineries. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs113.75 and a low of Rs106 and recorded volumes of over 16,000 shares on NSE.

Bharati Shipyard slipped by 1.5%to Rs552 after the company announced that it secured a repeat order worth Rs1.77bn from UP Offshore (BAHAMAS) Ltd. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs569 and a low of Rs533 and recorded volumes of over 82,000 shares on NSE.

Nitin Fire spurred by over 2.5% to Rs409 after the company announced that it has secured Rs5mn order from Indraprastha. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs418 and a low of Rs398 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Auto stocks further lost ground on back of fall in monthly sales figures. Hero Honda dropped by 2.4% to Rs652 after the company's July sales fell 15% to 201191 units, Tata Motors was down by 2.4% to Rs651 after the company's sales figures dropped 6.6% in July to 42,098 units. However, M&M slipped by 2.5% to Rs675 despite posting strong growth in its July sales. The company sold 19163 units in July posting 45.8% growth.

IT stocks also were on the receiving end as selling pressure dragged them lower. Wipro lost by over 3% to Rs462, TCS was down by 2% to Rs1095, Infosys slipped by 1.6% to Rs1899 and Satyam Computer ended 1% lower to Rs465.

Metal stocks shined brightly led by gains in index heavyweight Tata Steel as the scrip gained by 2.6% to Rs639; Hindalco was up by 0.5% to Rs159 and Hindustan Zinc added 0.5% to Rs707. However, SAIL lost by 0.5% to Rs143.

Power stocks perked up led by gains heavyweight, REL gained by 2.1% to Rs752, Suzlon was up by 2.3% to Rs1230, NTPC advanced by 1.6% to Rs162. However, Tata Power lost 1% to Rs693.

Banking stocks ended with strong gains. Frontline stock SBI surged by 3% to Rs1592, ICICI Bank was up by 1.2% to Rs901 and PNB added 1.7% to Rs494. OBC, Corp Bank and Syndicate Bank were the top gainers among the Mid-Cap stocks.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net sellers of Rs5.38bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday. At the same time, local institutions were net buyers of Rs2.83bn. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net buyers at Rs11.78bn.

On Wednesday, FIIs offloaded Rs9.83bn from the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs1.48bn.

Major bulk Deals:

Goldman Sachs has bought Gitanjali Gems; Citigroup has purchased Karuturi Networks; Principal MF has sold SRF Polymers.

Insider Trades:

UTV Software Communications Limited: FMR Corp. and its direct and indirect subsidiaries and Fidelity International Limited (FIL) and its direct and indirect subsidiaries has purchased from open market 50490 equity shares of the company on 30th July, 2007.

Shringar Cinemas Limited: Mr. Balkrishna Shroff, Director has purchased from open market 10000 equity shares of the
company on 1st August, 2007.

KEC International Limited: SBI Mutual Fund under its various schemes has purchased from open market 122350 equity
shares of the company on 30th July 2007.

Lower Circuit:

Rama Pulp, IID Forgings, Tanla, IOL Broadband, Easun Reyrolle, Hindustan Oil Exploration, Murli Industries and BF Utilities.

Upper Circuit:

Jai Corp, Prism Cement, Shree Precoated, Karuturi Networks, DMC International, Anant Raj Industries and Hindustan Dorr

Delivery Delight (Rising Price & Rising Delivery):

Birla Corp, Prism Cement, IOB, Gujarat NRE Coke and GTC Industries.

Abnormal Delivery:

Pfizer, UB, Corporation Bank, Balaji Telefilms and Divi's Labs.

Major News & Announcements:

Nitin Fire gets Rs5mn order from Indraprastha Gas

Punj Lloyd to acquire 25.1% in Pipavav Shipyard for Rs4.03bn

Punj Lloyd wins order worth Rs6.66bn

ACC July sales at 1.64mn tons (up14.6%)

JSW Steel July production at 237,000 tons (up 18%)

Sundaram Fastener acquire Germany's PUT Grundstucks for Euros 30,000

Hindustan Dorr gets order from Bharat Oman Refineries

GMR Infrastructure selects Apollo for medical centre at Hyderabad airport.


Result Updates

Cadila Healthcare
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs425
Current market price:
Rs355

Results beat expectations

Result highlights

  • The total operating income of Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) increased by 28.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs572.2 crore in Q1FY2008, driven by a 19.7% growth in the domestic business and a 49.9% rise in the exports. The sales growth was ahead of our expectations.
  • The domestic business was driven by an 18.2% increase in the sales of branded formulations, a 44% rise in the sales of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and a 52.4% jump in the consumer business. The improved performance of the French business (a growth of 49.8% yoy) and the US business (a growth of 122.6% yoy) contributed largely to the robust growth in the exports.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) shrank by 70 basis points to 19.4%, largely due to a 245-basis-point decline in the gross margin due to lower realisation on exports and a changing product mix. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 23.8% to Rs111.2 crore.
  • Despite a jump in the interest expense, the depreciation charge and the tax provision, the net profit rose by an impressive 38.1% to Rs73.9 crore. The profit growth was aided by a foreign exchange (forex) gain of Rs9.1 crore (on translation of outstanding foreign currency loans) recorded during the quarter as compared with a forex loss of Rs1.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The net profit surpassed our expectations.
  • In order to incorporate the impact of the recent acquisitions and the appreciation of the rupee against all the other major currencies (on account of which the realisations on exports have reduced), we are revising our estimates for Cadila. We have upgraded our revenue estimates by 5.2% and 5.1% to Rs2,241.0 crore and Rs2,600.8 crore for FY2008E and FY2009E respectively. Further, we have reduced our FY2008 and FY2009 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 2.1% each to Rs21.6 and Rs26.1 respectively.
  • At the current market price of Rs355, the company is trading at 16.4x its FY2008 and at 13.6x its FY2009 estimated earnings. With all the growth drivers in place and on track, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on Cadila with a price target of Rs425.

Bharat Electronics
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,975
Current market price: Rs1,650

Price target revised to Rs1,975

Result highlights

  • In Q1FY2008, Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) reported a decline of 16.3% in its net sales to Rs404.4 crore. Given the fact that the company had a record order backlog of Rs9,100 crore at the beginning of the fiscal, the revenues in Q1 were much below street expectations.
  • The performance at the operating level was even more disappointing with an operating loss of Rs4.6 crore during the quarter. In addition to the lower than expected execution in Q1, the operating profit was dented by the provision of Rs25.7 crore made for wage hikes and additional increments to its employees (of which Rs6.4 core pertains to the previous year).
  • However, the other income component for the quarter jumped by 71% to Rs65.6 crore (as against Rs38.4 crore in Q1FY2007) which enabled the company to report a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs26.3 crore. The PAT for the quarter was, however, down by 56.4% as compared with Rs60.3 crore reported in Q1FY2007.
  • Though the performance has been disappointing in Q1, the management expects the growth to pick up in the coming quarters on the back of a robust order book executable in the current year. Consequently, we are not revising our estimates and would review the same depending on the performance in Q2FY2008.
  • Along with the results, the company announced a final dividend of 140% (or Rs14 per share) for the year 2006-07. Including the interim dividend of 40%, the total dividend for the year stands at 180% (or Rs18 per share).
  • At the current market price the stock trades at 11.8x FY2008 and 9.3x FY2009 estimated earnings (multiple adjusted for estimated free cash on its books). We maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,975 (12x FY2009E earnings plus estimated free cash of Rs545 per share on its books).

Mahindra & Mahindra
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs900
Current market price: Rs694

Price target revised to Rs900

Result highlights

  • The Q1FY2008 results of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) were below our expectations. The stand-alone net sales of the company grew by 16.8% to Rs2,612.8 crore in the quarter led by an overall volume growth of 13.6%. The estimated impact on sales due to strengthening of the rupee is at Rs18-20 crore.
  • On segmental basis, the automotive revenues rose by 21% to Rs1,504.5 crore, whereas the FE division's revenues grew by 9.7%. The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin in the automotive segment declined by 110 basis points due to the strengthening of the rupee. The appreciation in rupee led to lower export realisation and lower profitability during the quarter. The FE division maintained the PBIT margin at 13.4%. Consequently, the overall operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 150 basis points to 10.6%, causing the operating profit to grow by only 2.5%.
  • On account of an increase in the interest expenditure and higher depreciation, the adjusted net profit grew by 6.8% to Rs192.75 crore. After taking into account the extraordinary items (voluntary retirement scheme expenses, special dividend income) the profit after tax (PAT) declined by 6.4% to Rs191.16 crore.
  • On consolidated basis, the gross revenues grew by 40.7% to Rs5,879.2 crore in Q1FY2008 while the profit before tax (PBT) and exceptional items grew by 11.7% to Rs535.7 crore.
  • We expect FY2008 to be the year of consolidation for the company as new product launches would take place only in FY2009. We are downgrading our consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2008 by 13% to Rs61.8 and for FY2009 by 15% to Rs69.7.
  • We have a sum-of-parts price target for M&M. In view of the downgrade in earnings we lower our price target to Rs900, where the core business is valued at Rs490 and 50% of the value is derived from its subsidiaries.

Tata Motors
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs792
Current market price: Rs699

Results below expectations

Result highlights

  • Tata Motors' Q1FY2008 results were below our expectations due to lower than expected margins. However, the bottom line was buttressed by a higher foreign exchange (forex) gain on account of strengthening of the rupee during the quarter.
  • The net sales of the company grew by 5.3% to Rs6,056.8 crore during the quarter on the back of a 1.3% growth in volumes and a 3.9% growth in realisations.
  • However a high raw material cost and lower volumes particularly in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment adversely affected the margins (excluding the forex gain/loss), which declined to 9% from 11.9% in the same quarter last year. Hence, the operating profit declined by 19.9% to Rs546.3 crore.
  • A little higher interest and depreciation charges caused the adjusted net profit for the quarter to drop by 39.4% to Rs259 crore. After accounting for the forex gain of Rs205.9 crore, the net profit for the quarter grew by 22.4% to Rs466.76 crore.
  • Looking at the consolidated performance, the company's sales grew by 13.3% to Rs7,631.3 crore while the profit excluding the forex gain declined by 27.7% to Rs308.2 crore. The profit after tax, extraordinaries and forex adjustments grew by 35.7% to Rs516.1 crore.
  • We continue to take a cautious outlook on the CV industry, considering the high interest rates and lower availability of finance. We expect the lacklustre trend to continue for another quarter at least. Things are, however, expected to improve somewhat in the third quarter as freight demand may receive a boost with the advent of the festive season.
  • In view of the lower than expected profit margins, we are downgrading our consolidated FY2008 earnings by 10% to Rs54.5 for FY2008 and by 5% to Rs62.9 for FY2008. At the current levels, the stock trades at 11x its FY2009E consolidated earnings and is available at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 5.9x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs792.

Hindustan Unilever
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs280
Current market price: Rs201

Results above expectations

Result highlights

  • The Q2CY2007 results of Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) were above our expectations. The net revenues of the company grew by 12.9% year on year (yoy) on the back of an 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the home and personal care (HPC) segment, which comprises the soap and detergent, and personal care businesses.
  • The soap and detergent business grew by 14.6% whereas the personal care product business grew at a lower rate of 6%. The growth in this segment was lower due to the pipeline clean-up in the skin care segment prior to the relaunch of Fair & Lovely. The beverage business grew by 20.8% yoy whereas the processed food business grew by 37.4% yoy.
  • The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin showed an expansion of ten basis points to 16.2%. The expansion in the PBIT margin is attributable to the improved margins in the HPC segment, which showed an increase by 118 basis points. The PBIT margin was slightly depressed by the losses in the nascent water business excluding which the PBIT margin stood at around 17%.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) of HUL expanded by 126 basis points to 14.7% on a y-o-y basis due to a lower advertising spend and a stable raw material cost. The selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 155 basis points which improved the margin. Moreover HUL has been able to maintain its market share in such a competitive market which is quite commendable.
  • The operating profit grew by 23.5% to Rs512 crore in Q2CY2007 from Rs414.7 crore in Q2CY2006. Excluding the losses from the water business, the growth in the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA) had been at 30%, which is quite commendable. The net profit grew by 29.5% to Rs493.1 crore in Q2CY2007.
  • HUL has announced buy-back of shares from the market at a price of Rs230 per share for a total amount of Rs630 crore, which will reduce its equity capital upto 1.2%. This is likely to begin in September 2007 and we expect the impact of this buy-back to be neutral on the earnings but to positively affect the sentiment of the stock.
  • At the current market price of Rs201, the stock is quoting at 23.5x its CY2007E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs8.5 and 21x its CY2008E EPS of Rs9.6. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs280.

VIEWPOINT

Tata Steel

Subdued volume

Results highlights

  • In Q1FY2008, the revenues of Tata Steel grew by 7.6% year on year (yoy) due to a 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in realisations to Rs40,324 per tonne. However the sales volume dropped by 7% yoy to 1.04 million tonne. Sequentially, the realisations grew by 2%, whereas the volumes declined by 17%. The reduction in volume was mainly due to the shut down of LD2 furnance for upgradation and the delay in the cold rolled shipment of 27,000 tonne.
  • The operating profit per tonne improved by 15% yoy and 8% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs16,323 per tonne mainly due to increased realisations and improving efficiency. The operating margins during the quarter were stable at 40.5%. The other income included sale of a cold rolling mill for a consideration of 67 crore.
  • The profit after tax (PAT) grew by 28% yoy to Rs1,222 crores largely driven by the forex gain of Rs553 crore due to exchange gain from foreign currency borrowing. The adjusted PAT declined by 10% yoy to Rs669 crore on account of a sharp increase in the interest cost (due to increased borrowing for Corus acquisition) and the increase in one time wage expense.