Via BL
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Gujarat Gas Company
Via BL
Posted by Admin at 9:03 AM 0 comments
The elephant and the bull market
Inside, the Bombay Stock Exchange's once-rambunctious trading floor has long since closed. Now brokers place orders quietly and electronically from elsewhere.
But the calm belies what's really going on - an unprecedented run-up in stock prices fed by foreign-investor enthusiasm about India's economic growth, averaging 9% over the past three years. In the past three months more than $7.9 billion in foreign equity capital has flooded in, pushing the market up such a steep curve that the key Sensex index gained some 3,000 points, or 17.5%, in just 33 days this fall.
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Posted by Admin at 9:03 AM 0 comments
Market up but smallcaps slaughtered
Profit-taking at higher levels saw the index drop to a low of 20,697 - down 381 points from the peak. Fresh buying towards the end saw the index finish with a gain of 60 points at 20,873.
The Smallcap Index plunged 3.3% (459 points) to 13,516, and the Midcap Index tumbled 2.8% (285 points) to 9817.
The market breadth was extremely negative - out of 2,922 stocks traded, 2,369 declined, 541 advanced and 12 were unchanged today.
INDEX MOVERS...
Bharti Airtel zoomed 4% to Rs 974. HDFC Bank soared 3.6% to Rs 1,716.
Satyam, SBI and Mahindra & Mahindra surged around 2.5% each to Rs 424, Rs 2,465 and Rs 830, respectively.
Reliance Communications and ONGC rallied nearly 2% each to Rs 804 and Rs 1,322, respectively.
TCS and Infosys advanced 1.5% each to Rs 991 and Rs 1,662, respectively.
DLF and Larsen & Toubro gained over 1% each at Rs 1,151 and Rs 4,333, respectively.
Reliance and Wipro were also up around 1% each at Rs 3,050 and Rs 488, respectively.
...AND SHAKERS
Hindalco and Tata Steel plunged 3.7% each to Rs 209 and Rs 892, respectively.
Grasim shed 3.3% to Rs 3,401. Maruti slipped 2.4% to Rs 940.
ICICI Bank and Reliance Energy tumbled around 2% each to Rs 1,333 and Rs 2,536, respectively.
ACC, Tata Motors and HDFC dropped around 1.5% each to Rs 985, Rs 774 and Rs 3,064, respectively.
NTPC and Cipla declined 1.3% each to Rs 265 and Rs 209, respectively. Hindustan Unilever was down over 1% at Rs 235.
MOST ACTIVE COUNTERS
Reliance Natural Resources topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 1,020.35 crore followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs 600 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs 334.30 crore), Reliance (Rs 276.50 crore) and Himachal Futuristic (Rs 273.80 crore).
Himachal Futuristic led the volume chart with trades of around 4.59 crore followed by Reliance Natural Resources (4.23 crore), Arvind Remedies (3.22 crore), Reliance Petroleum (2.39 crore) and Alka India (2.35 crore).
Posted by Admin at 9:02 AM 0 comments
Market Close: 21k touched but..Couldn't sustain?
Profit booking was seen in all the sectors except IT and selective stocks in sugar. Metals and Capital Goods were hit badly. Mid and small caps which had been outperformer for so many sessions, today were hammered. The both the index hit badly, ended down by 3%.
Sensex ended up by 61 points at 20873.33. It was helped up by gains in Bharti Tele (974.15,+4 percent), HDFC Bk (1716.3,+4 percent), Satyam (424.5,+3 percent), SBI (2465.25,+3 percent) and RCVL (804.3,+2 percent). Restricting the gains are Hindalco (208.95,-4 percent), TISCO (891.8,-4 percent), Grasim (3400.6001,-3 percent), Maruti (939.65,-2 percent) and ICICI Bk (1333.5,-2 percent).
Domestic car sales managed to beat the year-end blues in December 2007 registering an 8.8% growth while bike sales skid by 11.4% for the two-wheeler industry. Car market leader Maruti Suzuki India managed to increase sales by 4.5% to 50,056 units in December against 47,877 units in the corresponding period a year ago. Rivals Hyundai registered a growth of up 18.2% at 13,069 units, compared to 11,049 in the year-ago period, while Tata Motors witnessed a fall of 14% at 10,876 units, against 12,672 units in the same month in 2006. General Motors more than tripled its sales during the month at 4,130 units, compared to 1,064 in December 2006, thanks to heavy discounts offered on its hatchback 'Spark'. On the motorcycle front, the down-slide continued with all the top three manufacturers, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and TVS registering negative growths in December 2007. However, the auto stocks ended in deep red.
ABG Shipyard Ltd reported impressive results for the third quarter December 2007. The top line grew by 55% to Rs 275 cr and the bottom line grew by 61% to Rs 47 cr. The Ebidta profit grew by 55% to Rs 82 cr from Rs 53 cr on yoy basis. The company has been able to maintain the Ebidta margins at 30%, and has received Rs 17 cr in quarter as subsidy. The company imports 50-60% of raw material required, the appreciating rupee will be benefited. The major raw material is steel; the increase in prices of steel will impact on company?s margins. It has also planed to convert new facility at Dahej to SEZ. This may give some relief to the company if subsidy discontinued. ABG has main advantage of employee cost; it has appointed most of the employees on contract basis, this helps the company to save the fixed cost. The valuations are not compelling at this point of time; the business scenario is extremely good. Read our report here to get more calrity and ther will be a result analysis here too.
Technically Speaking: It was extremely volatile session with no clear direction, Sensex traded on both the sides without direction and ended with small gains. Sensex touched intraday high of 21,078 and low of 20,697. Overall breadth was in favor of Declines, where the Advances stood at 541, while Declines at 2371. The turnover was good at Rs 11,580 cr. Sensex support lies at 20,530 and resistance lies at 20,950 levels.
Posted by Admin at 9:02 AM 0 comments
Post Session Market Commentary
BSE Metal index declined by 603.62 points to close at 19,538.34. Scrips that dropped are Ispat industries (6.59%), Nalco (4.74%), Tata Steel (3.66%), Bhushan Steel (3.73%) and Sail (2.93%).
BSE Realty index closed lower by 130.27 points at 13,483.90. Scrips that fell are Penland (5.51%), Indbul Real (4.97%), Parsvnath (4.18%), Mahindra Life (3.67%)
BSE Bankex index slipped by 105.42 points to close at 12,086.57 as Andhra bank (4.93%), CentBOP (4.29%), Allahabad bank (4.31%), Oriental bank (3.33%), BOB (3.24%) and ICICI bank (2.23%).
BSE Oil & Gas index closed higher by 76.97 points at 14,051.27. Scrips that grew are RNRL (7.15%), ONGC (1.69%), Reliance industries (1.16%) and Gail India (0.35%).
BSE Capital Goods index grew by 64.36 points to close at 20,214.92. Scrips that jumped are Suzlon energy (4.77%) and L&T (1.29%).
BSE Health Care fell by 55.77 points to close at 4,297.11 as Fortis Health Care (6.73%), Bilcare (4.62%), Dishman pharma (4.41%), Wockhardt (3.70%), Biocon (3.10%) and Cipla (1.30%).
BSE IT index rose by 49.32 points to close at 4,244.75. Scrips that advanced are Karut Net (4.39%), Satyam (2.67%), Mphasis (2.54%), Tech Mahindra (1.65%), TCS (1.48%) and Infosys (1.47%).
Posted by Admin at 9:02 AM 0 comments
Manaksia ends 5% higher on debut
Manaksia settled at Rs 168.10 on BSE, a premium of 5.06% over the IPO price of Rs 160.
On BSE, 1.22 crore shares changed hands in the counter.
The stock debuted at Rs 200, a premium of 25% over the IPO price. It touched a high of Rs 248.70 and low of Rs 161.55.
The company had fixed the issue price at the top end of the Rs 140-160 price band. At the current price of Rs 168.10, the PE multiple works out to 12.73, based on the year ended March 2007 EPS of Rs 13.20.
The public issue of Kolkata-based Manaksia ended on 19 December 2007. The IPO was subscribed 9 times. It received bids for 13.61 crore shares against 1.55 crore shares on offer. The qualified institutional buyers portion was subscribed 13.07 times, the retail segment 5.08 times, and the non institutional investors portion 2.72 times.
Manaksia's business is spread across aluminium sheets, galvanised steel sheets, mosquito coils and metal packaging products. The flat aluminium products are partly used for captive purposes to make metal containers and caps, and the rest is supplied to auto companies like Maruti Suzuki. Galvanised corrugated steel sheets are mainly used in the household sector in Nigeria.
The company plans to use the net proceeds of the IPO for expansion of the metals business at Haldia in West Bengal. A portion of money would also be used to pre-pay a certain amount of term debt and for general corporate purposes.
Manaksia reported a net profit of Rs 92.06 crore on revenue of Rs 827.78 crore in the year ended March 2007.
Posted by Admin at 9:00 AM 0 comments
Small-cap, mid-cap indices retreat even as Sensex strikes record high
The breadth of the market was negative. Of the 2,922 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,369 stocks declined, 541 stocks advanced and 12 stocks ended unchanged.
Among the sectoral indices, all the sectoral indices except BSE IT index, BSE Teck index and BSE Bankex index were trading with the marginal gains. The BSE Metal index has dropped 3%, the BSE CD index has declined 2.93% and the BSE PSU index has shed 1.70% while BSE FMCG, Auto, HC, Oil & Gas, Reality and Power were in red at the close of trading.
Selective buying helped the index overcome its losses. Bharti Airtel flared up 4.01% at Rs974, HDFC Bank advanced 3.58% at Rs1,716, Satyam Computer rose 2.67% at Rs424.50 and SBI added 2.59% at Rs2,465. M&M, Reliance Communications, ONGC, TCS, Infosys and DLF witnessed steady gains.
Selling was evident in select heavyweight counters. Hindalco dropped 3.78% at Rs208.95, Tata Steel declined 3.66% at Rs891.80, Grasim tumbled 3.26% at Rs3,400.60, Maruti shed 2.43% at Rs939.65, ICICI Bank dipped 2.23% at Rs1,333.50, Reliance Energy moved down by 1.86% at Rs2,536 and HDFC 1.54% at Rs3,064.
BSE Metal stocks dropped sharply. Ispat Industries dipped 6.59% at Rs69.40, Nalco dropped 4.74% at Rs500.50, SH Precoated declined by 3.91% at Rs453.75. However, Bhushan Steel gained 3.73% at Rs1,607.95. Tisco, Jindal Saw, and Sterlite scaled down 3-2.50% each.
Over 52.21 lakh ITC shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Communications (41.53 lakh shares), NTPC (27.81 lakh shares), ONGC (15.66 lakh shares) and Hindalco (13.40 lakh shares).
Posted by Admin at 9:00 AM 0 comments
Market ends flat amid volatility
The breadth of the market was negative. Of the 2,922 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,369 stocks declined, 541 stocks advanced and 12 stocks ended unchanged.
Among the sectoral indices, all the sectoral indices except BSE IT index, BSE Teck index and BSE Bankex index were trading with the marginal gains. The BSE Metal index has dropped 3%, the BSE CD index has declined 2.93% and the BSE PSU index has shed 1.70% while BSE FMCG, Auto, HC, Oil & Gas, Reality and Power were in red at the close of trading.
Selective buying helped the index overcome its losses. Bharti Airtel flared up 4.01% at Rs974, HDFC Bank advanced 3.58% at Rs1,716, Satyam Computer rose 2.67% at Rs424.50 and SBI added 2.59% at Rs2,465. M&M, Reliance Communications, ONGC, TCS, Infosys and DLF witnessed steady gains.
Selling was evident in select heavyweight counters. Hindalco dropped 3.78% at Rs208.95, Tata Steel declined 3.66% at Rs891.80, Grasim tumbled 3.26% at Rs3,400.60, Maruti shed 2.43% at Rs939.65, ICICI Bank dipped 2.23% at Rs1,333.50, Reliance Energy moved down by 1.86% at Rs2,536 and HDFC 1.54% at Rs3,064.
BSE Metal stocks dropped sharply. Ispat Industries dipped 6.59% at Rs69.40, Nalco dropped 4.74% at Rs500.50, SH Precoated declined by 3.91% at Rs453.75. However, Bhushan Steel gained 3.73% at Rs1,607.95. Tisco, Jindal Saw, and Sterlite scaled down 3-2.50% each.
Over 52.21 lakh ITC shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Communications (41.53 lakh shares), NTPC (27.81 lakh shares), ONGC (15.66 lakh shares) and Hindalco (13.40 lakh shares).
Posted by Admin at 9:00 AM 0 comments
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Global cues ignored as market rallies on
The index bounced strongly on buying in heavyweights like ICICI Bank, Reliance and ITC, and hit a high of 20,862 in noon deals - an intra-day swing of over 400 points.
The Sensex finally closed with a gain of 126 points (0.61%) at 20,813.
The BSE Bankex gained over 2% ( 287 points) at 12,192. The BSE Realty and FMCG indices also moved up today.
The market breadth was marginally bullish - out of 2,926 scrips traded, 1,573 logged gains today.
INDEX GAINERS....
ICICI Bank led the rally today with a gain of over 6% (Rs 78) at Rs 1,364.
ITC gained 5% at Rs 231. HUL was up 2.5% at Rs 237.
Reliance closed with a gain of 1% at Rs 3,016.
RCom added 4% at Rs 790, and REL moved up 3% to Rs 2,584.
DLF gained 2% at Rs 1,136. L&T was up nearly 1% at Rs 4,278.
.... AND LOSERS
Infosys dropped over 3% to Rs 1,638. TCS and Wipro were down over 2% each at Rs 976 and Rs 483, respectively.
ONGC declined 3% to Rs 1,300. HDFC Bank was down over 2% at Rs 1,657. Grasim, Bajaj and BHEL also declined today.
MOST ACTIVE COUNTERS
RNRL was the most active counter with a turnover of Rs 651 crore followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs 427 crore), Hindustan Motors (Rs 214 crore), Parsvnath (Rs 211 crore) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (Rs 204 crore).
Posted by Admin at 12:39 AM 0 comments
REL, L&T, IFCI January 2008 futures at premium
Nifty January 2008 futures were at 6290, at premium of 10.90 points as compared to spot closing of 6279.10.
The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 70,004.57 crore, which was higher than Rs 67,181.45 crore on Friday, 4 January 2008.
Reliance Energy (REL) January 2008 futures were at premium, at 2616.55, compared to the spot closing of 2585.65.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) January 2008 futures were at premium, at 4325.30, compared to the spot closing of 4282.95.
IFCI January 2008 futures were at premium, at 95.65, compared to the spot closing of 95.40.
In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 4.80 points or 0.08% at 6279.10.
Posted by Admin at 12:37 AM 0 comments
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 7 2008
7/1/2008 531497 MADHUCON PRO MORGAN STANLEY INV.MGT.INC. B 301000 623.84
7/1/2008 531497 MADHUCON PRO GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 384190 625.00
7/1/2008 501209 MAST MEDI SY MAVI INVESTMENT FUND LTD B 33568 70.52
7/1/2008 523710 SAYAJ HOTELS RUANE CUNNIFF GOLDFARB INC AC ACACIA PARTNERS LP B 135356 95.00
7/1/2008 523710 SAYAJ HOTELS CLEARWATER CAPITAL PARTNERS CYPRUS LTD S 200000 95.00
7/1/2008 513414 SUJANA METAL GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 627500 43.79
7/1/2008 513414 SUJANA METAL BLACKSTONE ASIA ADVISORS LL.. S 2500000 44.45
7/1/2008 590057 NORTHGATE TE VINAMRA UNIVERSAL TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITED B 220000 560.00
7/1/2008 590057 NORTHGATE TE BHASKARA REDDY KUNAREDDY S 100000 560.00
7/1/2008 590057 NORTHGATE TE UMA KUNAREDDY S 120000 560.00
7/1/2008 502455 SIRPUR PAP RARE ENTERPRISES (RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA) B 50000 132.22
/1/2008 532887 SUJANATOWER SUNDARAM BNP PARIBAS MUTUAL FUND B 826587 210.00
7/1/2008 532887 SUJANATOWER UTI BANK LTD B 200000 210.77
7/1/2008 532887 SUJANATOWER BLACKSTONE ASIA ADVISORS LLC ACCT THE INDIA FUND INC S 630000 201.90
Posted by Admin at 12:37 AM 0 comments
Market Close: Outperforms global weakness..
Sensex ended up by 126 points at 20812.65. It was helped up by gains in ICICI Bk (1363.9,+6 percent), ITC (231.1,+5 percent), RCVL (790.05,+4 percent), Rel Energy (2584.1499,+3 percent) and HLL (237.25,+3 percent). Restricting the gains were Infosys (1638.1,-3 percent), ONGC (1299.95,-3 percent), TCS (976.15,-3 percent), Wipro (483.35,-3 percent) and HDFC Bk (1657,-2 percent).
With the power cable business witnessing robust growth companies like Paramount, KEI Ind and Torrent cables is garnering interest in the investors mind. Today was the day for KEI Industries which was locked in upper circuits of 20%. It is one of the established player in the power cables segment and the second largest power cable company in India after paramount communication. It manufacture of high and low tension cables, house wires and stainless steel wires. KEI is one of the few companies in the country to manufacture specialty cables including braided cables, fire survival and zero halogen cables. KEI has a strong brand name in the institutional segment. It sells 70% of its products to institutions. KEI recently inaugurated a new plant for manufacturing of HT and LT Power cable at Chopanki near Bhiwadi, It is well geared to meet the growing demand for Power Transmission & Distribution in India. Valuations are fair at current levels. One can have position in this stock with long tern perspective. We have detailed research note on this which can provide you clear picture and our view on this stock as well as industry. Do have a look...
Gremach Infrastructure Equipments and Projects was the stock under lime light after the news that company plans to buy around 40 onshore rigs which will be deployed primarily within India as well as outside India. The rigs will be deep drilling oil rigs. With overall capex requirement over the next 18 to 20 months will be around USD 300-400 million. Gremach has just competed USD 50 million FCCV and this would be basically and primarily being deployed for oil rig business. Government of India is identifying this sector as the major thrust area which is having 60% of any oil expenditure growth for oil services. The stock ended up by 10% on the back of this news.
Technically Speaking: Markets traded well with a positive breadth across the day. Indices made a intraday high of 20862 and low of 20438. Advances were leading as they were 1564 Vs Decliners of 1344. Overall volume for the day was fine at Rs 10661 Cr turnover. Sensex ended up very close to our resistance zone of 20850--20950. If failed to cross above this zone, we could fall upto 19650. Immediate support seen at 20230.
Posted by Admin at 12:36 AM 0 comments
Sensex, Nifty at record closing highs
European markets which opened after Indian market were trading firm. Asian markets which opened before Indian market were trading weak. US stocks tumbled on Friday, 4 January 2008, as a sharp rise in US unemployment rate in December 2007, heightened fears the US economy is heading into a recession.
The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 125.76 points or 0.61% to 20,812.65, a record closing high. Sensex hit all-time high of 20,861.83 in mid-afternoon trade. At day's high, Sensex gained 174.94 points. Sensex had hit a low of 20,438.19 at the onset of the trading session. At day's low, Sensex had declined 248 points.
The broader CNX S&P Nifty inched up 4.8 points or 0.08% to 6,279.10, a record closing high. Nifty hit a high of 6,289.80.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.11% to 10,102.23 and it underperformed Sensex. It hit a high of 10,189.68. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.66% to 13,975.19 and it outperformed Sensex. It hit a high of 14,133.16, also a all time high for the index.
BSE Bankex (up 2.41% to 12,191.99), BSE Realty index (up 2.48% to 13,614.17) and BSE FMCG index (up 3.3% to 2,504.45) outperformed Sensex.
BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.41% to 13,974.30), BSE Power index (up 0.41% to 4,863.11), BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.01% to 6,768.16), BSE Auto index (down 0.39% to 5,665.72), BSE Metal index (down 0.77% to 20,141.96), BSE Healthcare index (down 0.94% to 4,352.88) and BSE IT index (down 2.86% to 4,195.43) underperformed Sensex.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 10,661 crore compared to Friday (4 January 2008)'s Rs 11,039.61 crore.
Nifty January 2008 futures were at 6290, at a premium of 10.90 points as compared to spot closing of 6279.10.
The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 70,004.57 crore, which was higher than Rs 67,181.45 crore on Friday, 4 January 2008.
The market breadth was strong on BSE with 1564 shares advancing as compared to 1346 that declined. 24 remained unchanged. 18 out of 30 shares from the Sensex pack were in the red.
India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 1% to Rs 3,015.60.
Reliance Energy rose 2.94% to Rs 2,584.15 on reports Reliance Power, in which it holds 50% stake, is reportedly planning to tap the inorganic route and explore possibilities of taking over existing government power projects, including Ratnagiri Gas and Power plant at Dabhol, to scale up its generation capacity.
IT stock slipped as weaker-than-expected job growth in United States in December 2007 sparked worries that the US economy may head towards recession. Infosys (down 3.35% to Rs 1,638.10), Wipro (down 2.72% to Rs 483.35), Tata Consultancy Services (down 2.88% to Rs 976.15), Indian IT companies derive more than half of their revenues from the US market.
India's fourth largest software service provider by sales Satyam Computer Services declined 2.08% to Rs 413.45. Satyam today said it had entered into a tie-up with Greenplum, a leading provider of database software for business intelligence, to combine Satyam's reach and expertise in delivering business intelligence (BI) solutions with Greenplum's innovative database software.
Healthcare stocks declined. Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 1.08% to Rs 420.90), Cipla (down 0.38% to Rs 211.90) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (down 2.25% to Rs 712.20) edged lower.
Metal stocks also drifted lower. Tata Steel (down 0.47% to Rs 925.70), Steel Authority of India (down 1.13% to Rs 271.05), Hindalco Industries (down 1.27% to Rs 217.15) edged lower. National Aluminium Company rose 1.27% to Rs 525.40 and Sterlite Industries rose 0.63% to Rs 1,066.15.
Realty stocks gained. Indiabulls Real Estate (up 6.45% to Rs 815.65), DLF (up 2.09% to Rs 1,135.75), Unitech (up 2.54% to Rs 534.10) edged higher.
Parsvnath Developers surged 8.52% to Rs 574.20 after the company said during the market hours it had bagged a Rs 90 crore contract to build Sai Ashram at Shirdi.
Banking stocks rose. ICICI Bank (up 6.11% to Rs 1,363.90) and State Bank of India (up 0.51% to Rs 2,402.95) edged higher. India's second largest private sector bank in terms of net profit HDFC Bank declined 2.38% to Rs 1,657.
As per reports, the mandatory licensing requirement for Indian banks to open branches may be done away with. The department of financial services is taking up the matter with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as banks are no more shying away from opening branches in semi-urban and rural areas.
FMCG stocks rose. ITC (up 5.26% to Rs 231.10), Nestle India (up 3.14% to Rs 1,506), REI Agro (up 5% to Rs 940.35), Hindustan Unilever (up 2.55% to Rs 237.25) edged higher.
India's second biggest listed telecommunication services provider by sales Reliance Communications rose 3.95% to Rs 790.05.
India's largest oil exploration firm by revenue ONGC declined 3.26% to Rs 1,299.95.
India's largest engineering & construction firm in terms of revenue, Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) rose 0.78% to Rs 4,277.65 on securing two major contracts from Cairn India for the construction of civil works and the consolidated construction works of Cairn's project located near Barmer in Rajasthan.
Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest volume of 2.93 crore shares on BSE. The scrip rose 9.15% to Rs 227.85. Centurion Bank of Punjab clocked the second highest volume of 2.81 crore shares on BSE. The scrip rose 3.81% to Rs 72.25. Hindustan Motors clocked the third highest volume of 2.35 crore shares on BSE. The scrip rose 3.13% to Rs 88.85. IFCI clocked he fourth highest volume of 2 crore shares on BSE. It rose 4.44% to Rs 95.35. Reliance Petroleum clocked the fifth highest volume of 1.71 crore shares on BSE. It rose 2.6% to Rs 251.
Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest turnover of Rs 651.35 crore on BSE. Reliance Petroleum (Rs 428.07 crore), Hindustan Motors (Rs 214.87 crore), Parsvnath Developers (Rs 211.08 crore) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (Rs 204.66 crore) were other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.
European markets opened firm. Germany's DAX (up 0.33% to 7,834.45) and UK's FTSE 100 (up 0.31% to 6,368) edged higher.
In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 1.24% to 4.11%. However, China's Shanghai Composite index was up 0.59%.
US stocks tumbled on Friday, 4 January 2008, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst three-day start to a year since the Great Depression, due to fears the economy was heading into a recession. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 256.54 points, or 1.96%, at 12,800.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 35.53 points, or 2.46%, at 1,411.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 98.03 points, or 3.77%, at 2,504.65.
A US recession may not impact India's economic growth in a big way given that domestic demand is a key driver of the Indian economy. India's economy is expected to post strong growth for a long period due to favourable demographics. Economists also reckon that a healthy investment cycle will continue to support growth through a self-perpetuating cycle of income creation, savings and investment.
Though the Indian economy may be relatively insulated from the US recession, any risk aversion globally causing setback in global markets, may cast its shadow on the Indian bourses. However, with expectations of good Q3 December 2007 results from the corporate sector, any sharp fall may attract buying.
Posted by Admin at 12:36 AM 0 comments
Sensex displays solid strength
Among the sectoral indices, the FMCG index led the upsurge with gains of 3.34% at 2,505 followed by the BSE Bankex index (up 2.46% at 12,198) and the BSE Realty index (up 2.40% at 13,604). The market breadth was positive. Of the 2,926 stocks traded on the BSE 1,572 stocks advanced, 1,338 stocks declined and 16 stocks ended unchanged.
Out of the 30 Sensex stocks, 12 managed to end in the green while 18 stocks ended with losses. ICICI Bank was the leading gainer and soared 6.11% at Rs1,364. ITC jumped 5.26% at Rs231, Reliance Communication shot up by 3.95% at Rs790, Reliance Energy advanced 2.94% at Rs2,584, HLL moved up by 2.55% at Rs237, DLF added 2.09% at Rs1,136 and Reliance Industries gained 1% at Rs3,016. Among the laggards Infosys dropped 3.35% at Rs1,638, ONGC shed 3.26% at Rs1,300, TCS declined by 2.88% at Rs976, Wipro fell 2.72% at Rs483 and HDFC Bank slipped 2.38% at Rs1,657.
Over 2.93 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Centurion Bank of Punjab (2.80 crore shares), Hindustan Motors (2.34 crore shares), IFCI (2 crore shares) and Reliance Petroleum (1.71 crore shares).
Reliance Natural Resources registered a turnover of Rs651 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs427 crore), Hindustan Motors (Rs214 crore), Parsvanath (Rs211 crore) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (Rs204 crore).
Posted by Admin at 12:35 AM 0 comments
Post Market Commentary
BSE Realty index surged by 328.88 points to close at 13,614.17. Scrips that pushed up are Parsvnath (8.52%), IndiaBull Real (6.45%), Unitech (2.54%), DLF (2.09%), Akruti City (0.97%) and Penland (0.28%).
BSE Bankex index closed higher by 286.93 points 12,191.99. Scrips that gained are IOB 7.41%, ICICI bank 6.11%, CentBOP 3.81%, Axis bank 3.13%, Yes bank 1.38% and SBI (0.51%).
BSE Oil & Gas index advanced by 57.26 points to close at 13,974.30 as RNRL 9.15%, RPL 2.60%, Essar Oil 1.89% and Reliance industries 1% closed higher.
BSE Metal index fell by 155.55 points to close at 20,141.96. Scrips that fell are Ispat industries by 3.63%, Gujarat NRE 3.06%, JSW Steel 2.94%, Jindal Steel 2.31% and Jindal Stainless 1.86%.
BSE Capital Goods index rose by 121.32 points to close at 20,150.56 as Suzlon Energy 6.80%, Siemens 3.49%, Elecon Eng 3.43%, Jyothi Struc 1.99% and Alstom Projects 1.05% closed higher.
BSE Health Care fell by 41.30 points to close at 4,352.88. Scrips that dropped are Dishman pharma 5.56%, Glenmark 3.71%, Dr Reddy lab 2.25% and Biocon 1.86%.
BSE IT index slipped by 123.71 points to close at 4,195.43. Scrips that fell are HCL Tech 4.68%, Infosys 3.35%, Tech Mahindra 3.11%, NIIT 3.06% and TCS 2.88%.
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Market ends higher
European markets which opened after Indian market were trading firm. Asian markets which opened before Indian market were trading weak. US stocks tumbled on Friday, 4 January 2008, as a sharp rise in US unemployment rate in December 2007, heightened fears the US economy is heading into a recession.
The 30-share BSE Sensex provisionally rose 112.51 points or 0.54% to 20,799.40. Sensex hit all-time high of 20,861.83 in mid-afternoon trade. At day's high, Sensex gained 174.94 points. Sensex had hit a low of 20,438.19 at the onset of the trading session. At day's low, Sensex had declined 248 points.
The broader CNX S&P Nifty provisionally inched up 6 points or 0.1% to 6,280.30.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.16% to 10,097.12 and it underperformed Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.57% to 13,963.11 and it outperformed Sensex.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 10,661 crore compared to Friday (4 January 2008)'s Rs 11,039.61 crore.
The market breadth was strong on BSE with 1569 shares advancing as compared to 1336 that declined. 24 remained unchanged. 19 out of 30 shares from the Sensex pack were in the red.
India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 0.91% to Rs 3,013.
Reliance Energy rose 1.26% to Rs 2,542 on reports Reliance Power, in which it holds 50% stake, is reportedly planning to tap the inorganic route and explore possibilities of taking over existing government power projects, including Ratnagiri Gas and Power plant at Dabhol, to scale up its generation capacity.
IT stock slipped as weaker-than-expected job growth in United States in December 2007 sparked worries that the US economy may head towards recession. Infosys (down 3.23% to Rs 1,640), Wipro (down 2.79% to Rs 483), Tata Consultancy Services (down 2.9% to Rs 976), Indian IT companies derive more than half of their revenues from the US market.
India's fourth largest software service provider by sales Satyam Computer Services declined 1.97% to Rs 413.95. Satyam today said it had entered into a tie-up with Greenplum, a leading provider of database software for business intelligence, to combine Satyam's reach and expertise in delivering business intelligence (BI) solutions with Greenplum's innovative database software.
Healthcare stocks declined. Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 1.29% to Rs 420), Cipla (down 0.56% to Rs 211.50) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (down 1.73% to Rs 716) edged lower.
Metal stocks also drifted lower. Tata Steel (down 0.28% to Rs 927.50), Steel Authority of India (down 1.15% to Rs 271), Hindalco Industries (down 1.89% to Rs 217.15) edged lower. National Aluminium Company rose 2.56% to Rs 532.10 andSterlite Industries rose 1.02% to Rs 1,070.30.
Realty stocks gained. Indiabulls Real Estate (up 6.45% to Rs 815.65), DLF (up 2.09% to Rs 1,135.75), Unitech (up 2.54% to Rs 534.10) edged higher.
Parsvnath Developers surged 8.52% to Rs 574.20 after the company said during the market hours it had bagged a Rs 90 crore contract to build Sai Ashram at Shirdi.
Banking stocks rose. ICICI Bank (up 6.11% to Rs 1,363.90) and State Bank of India (up 0.51% to Rs 2,402.95) edged higher. India's second largest private sector bank in terms of net profit HDFC Bank declined 2.38% to Rs 1,657.
As per reports, the mandatory licensing requirement for Indian banks to open branches may be done away with. The department of financial services is taking up the matter with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as banks are no more shying away from opening branches in semi-urban and rural areas.
FMCG stocks rose. ITC (up 5.26% to Rs 231.10), Nestle India (up 3.14% to Rs 1,506), REI Agro (up 5% to Rs 940.35), Hindustan Unilever (up 2.55% to Rs 237.25) edged higher.
India's second biggest listed telecommunication services provider by sales Reliance Communications rose 3.95% to Rs 790.05.
India's largest oil exploration firm by revenue ONGC declined 3.26% to Rs 1,299.95.
India's largest engineering & construction firm in terms of revenue, Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) rose 0.78% to Rs 4,277.65 on securing two major contracts from Cairn India for the construction of civil works and the consolidated construction works of Cairn's project located near Barmer in Rajasthan.
European markes opened firm. Germany's DAX (up 0.12% to 7,817.87) and UK's FTSE 100 (up 0.08% to 6,353.60) edged higher.
In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 1.24% to 4.11%. However, China's Shanghai Composite index was up 0.59%.
US stocks tumbled on Friday, 4 January 2008, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst three-day start to a year since the Great Depression, due to fears the economy was heading into a recession. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 256.54 points, or 1.96%, at 12,800.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 35.53 points, or 2.46%, at 1,411.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 98.03 points, or 3.77%, at 2,504.65.
A US recession may not impact India's economic growth in a big way given that domestic demand is a key driver of the Indian economy. India's economy is expected to post strong growth for a long period due to favourable demographics. Economists also reckon that a healthy investment cycle will continue to support growth through a self-perpetuating cycle of income creation, savings and investment.
Though the Indian economy may be relatively insulated from the US recession, any risk aversion globally causing setback in global markets, may cast its shadow on the Indian bourses. However, with expectations of good Q3 December 2007 results from the corporate sector, any sharp fall may attract buying.
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Sun increases advertising rates
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Valueline - Jan 2008
The Sensex is expected to reach 23,000-24,000 levels in 2008. This appears to be a reasonable target given our expectations of a stable growth in the corporate earnings, peaking out of the interest rates and strong foreign investor interest in the emerging markets (EMs). Though the global economic growth is likely to moderate (the USA and parts of Europe are likely to experience a housing led economic slowdown), compared with the most other EMs India is relatively better insulated from a possible slowdown in the developed economies. Thus, India is expected to continue to grow at a robust rate and attract foreign investments. A populist budget could see a reduction in the direct tax rate, which would be a boost for the market. On the flip side, the implications of the Sixth Pay Commission, greater than expected moderation in the domestic economic growth and a hard landing of the US economy remain the key risks to the market in CY2008. In this issue of Market Outlook we have analysed the positive and negative factors that will affect our market in FY2009. We prefer sectors that are driven by domestic demand and capital spending, and hence are relatively better insulated from a US slowdown. We thus like banking, capital goods, telecom and oil exploration service sectors. However, we continue to believe that the bottoms-up approach can be used to identify promising opportunities in the mid-cap space as well.
In the December 2007 issue, we had recommended the best 12 of our Stock Ideas as Sharekhan Top Picks. As on December 31, 2007, the basket of stocks has given an absolute return of 2.8% as compared with a 4.7% appreciation in the S&P Nifty and 3.5% growth in the Sensex.
STOCK IDEA
Mold-Tek Technologies
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs215
Current market price: Rs155
Unlocking value
Key points
- KPO business growing exponentially: Mold-Tek Technologies (MTT) has gained the critical size and required expertise in the niche area of structural engineering KPO services. The size of the opportunity in this space is huge and the company has taken inorganic initiatives to move up the value chain and establish presence in the key overseas markets. Consequently, we expect its KPO business to grow at a CAGR of around 160% over the next three years.
- Expanding the plastic packaging service business: In the recent past, the company invested in modernisation and expansion of its manufacturing units in the plastic packaging business. It also bagged orders from large and reputed clients in the oil & lubricant business, further consolidating its leadership position in the segment. The plastic packaging business is likely to grow at a CAGR of over 20% in the three-year period FY2007-10.
- Unlocking value in KPO business: The company has filed an application for the de-merger of its two businesses into separate entities. We believe this would result in the re-rating of the KPO business that is not only growing at an exponential rate but also enjoys much higher margins. We value the KPO business alone at Rs189 per share.
- Attractive valuations: With its revenues and earnings expected to grow at CAGR of 31% and 66% respectively over FY2007-10, MTT is attractively valued at 7.6x FY2009 and 5.3x FY2010 estimated earnings (as the existing combined entity). Taking into account the de-merger ratio also (holders of 100 existing shares to get 72 shares of the plastic company and 28 shares of the KPO company), the KPO business alone is valued at Rs189 per share. We recommend a Buy call on MTT with a price target of Rs215.
Orbit Corporation
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,060
Current market price: Rs800
Moving in a unique Orbit
Key points
- Unique strategy to support long-term outlook: Orbit Corporation (Orbit) focuses on the redevelopment of old and dilapidated buildings in the central and southern parts of Mumbai. There are around 6,300 old and dilapidated buildings in these areas that can unleash approximately 56 million square feet (msf) of saleable area for the developers. With its unique and differentiated business model, Orbit would be one of the key beneficiaries of the huge redevelopment opportunities available in the city.
- Strong growth visibility: Orbit currently has 16 projects spanning 1.1msf under development. Moreover, the company has a project pipeline of 2.1msf. All these projects (the current as well as those in the pipeline) are located in the southern and central parts of Mumbai where there is a huge demand and supply mismatch for space. Consequently, we estimate Orbit's revenues would grow at a CAGR of 89.2% during the three-year period FY2007-10.
- Healthy cash flows and margins: Unlike most of its peers, Orbit would generate substantially large free cash flows over the next three years. This is largely due to its limited working capital requirements as the company is able to pre-sell a large part of its projects during the construction phase itself. Given the prime location of its projects, the margins are also quite healthy. The operating profit margins are expected to improve to 51% by FY2010, up from around 38.7% reported in FY2007. Consequently, the consolidated earnings are estimated to grow at a CAGR of 99.6% during FY2007-10.
- Attractive valuation: For Orbit's valuation, we believe the P/E multiple approach is better than the NAV approach. That's because the company has a unique business model focused on the redevelopment of projects where the size of the opportunity is huge. At the current market price of Rs800, the stock trades at P/E multiples of 14.8x and 10.4x based on the FY2008E and FY2009E EPS respectively. We recommend a Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs1,060.
Patels Airtemp India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs135
Current market price: Rs88
Catch it young
Key points
- Booming user industries: Patels Airtemp India, which manufactures heat exchangers, pressure vessels, industrial fans and blowers and other heat-transfer-technology products, would benefit from the ongoing boom in its user industries such as oil and gas, refineries, power, cement, and fertilisers. The heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) business, where the company undertakes turnkey projects and manufactures HVAC equipment is also expected to benefit from the ongoing retail boom.
- Expect strong growth in new order booking: The company has a healthy order book of Rs45 crore, out of which Rs40 crore is executable over the next six months. We expect the orders to continue to grow at a strong rate of 45-50% annually for the next two years. We expect new order booking of ~Rs70 crore in FY2008, which should increase to ~Rs120 crore by FY2009, while the momentum is expected to continue considering the current buoyancy in its user industries. Exports too are expected to grow at a fast pace. Out of the current order book of Rs45 crore, about Rs15 crore pertains to export orders as against export orders of 0.98 crore in FY2007.
- Healthy return ratios: We expect a strong improvement in its return ratios going forward on the back of improved margins and no major capex requirement in the next two years. We estimate the topline to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.1% and the bottomline to grow at a CAGR of 72.7% between FY2007-09.
- Attractive valuations: At the current market price, the stock discounts its FY2009E earnings by 5.9x and quotes at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 3.5x. We believe the valuations are very attractive and recommend a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs135.
Punj Lloyd
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs620
Current market price: Rs519
Stepping in the upper league
Key points
- Moving up the value chain: One of the significant achievements for Punj Llyod Ltd (PLL) over the years has been its increasing average order size. PLL started with an average order size of $30 million that has grown to $130-140 million, and the company intends to increase it to $250 million. We believe higher order size would improve the margins of the company and also make it a pre-qualified player for larger and more complex orders.
- SEC turnarounda key positive: PLL acquired Sembawang Engineers & Constructors (SEC) in June 2006. SEC's acquisition has added to the expertise of PLL in the field of oil & gas, airports, jetties, MRT/LRT, and tunneling. SEC has traditionally operated at lower margins, however the new orders are booked at healthy margins. Further, the company expects to execute all the legacy orders of SEC over the next 18-24 months. We expect, this will improve SEC's operating profit margin (OPM) from 3.5% in FY2008E to 7% in FY2010E.
- Order bookmore the merrier: PLL has had a spectacular flow of orders, with orders growing from Rs3,240 crore at FY2005 end to Rs15,944 crore (including Rs4,900 crore for SEC) by FY2007 end. In H1FY2008 the company bagged orders worth Rs2,070 crore. The company has a healthy order backlog of Rs14,852 crore, which is 2.9x its FY2007 revenues and this we believe imparts strong visibility to the earnings of the company.
- Acquisitionshelp plugging and bridging gaps: PLL is the second largest engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) company in the country. Acquisition of SEC and Simon Carves has helped PLL plug gaps in its offerings and increase its addressable markets. Post acquisition, PLL has considerably bridged the gap making it more competitive against Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the largest EPC player in the country.
Tata Chemicals
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs535
Current market price: Rs411
Riding on uptrend in soda ash cycle
Key points
- Soda ash prices up by 60%: Tata Chemicals Ltd (TCL), the third largest producer of soda ash in the world, is set to benefit from the upturn in the soda ash cycle. A worldwide shortage of soda ash has pushed its prices up by 60% to $260-300 per tonne in the last six months. Since the supply of soda ash is expected to remain tight, its prices would stay firm going forward.
- Soda ash capacity addition to lead to volume growth: TCL has recently added 365,000tpa of capacity at its Kenyan (Magadi) plant, which is the lowest cost producer of soda ash in the world. It is also planning to raise its Magadi capacity by another 365,000tpa to 1.1mmtpa by FY2011. It has also undertaken the debottlenecking of its Mithapur plant to raise the latter's capacity from 0.9mmtpa to 1.2mmtpa by FY2011.
- Windfall profits awaiting de-bottlenecking of urea capacity: After the de-bottlenecking of the urea capacity to 1.2mmtpa by September 2008, the normative capacity utilisation would reach 145%. This would generate windfall profits for the company till capacity re-rating takes place in FY2011.
- IMACID JV to benefit from higher prices of phosphoric acid: Higher phosphoric acid prices due to a shortage coupled with a better pricing policy would further improve the profit margins for the IMACID joint venture.
- Investment portfolio worth Rs187 per share: TCL's investment portfolio of Rs775 crore (book value) is worth Rs4,600 crore, which works out to Rs187 per share.
- Valuation: At the current market price of Rs411, the stock is trading at 13.5x its FY2009E diluted earnings and an EV/EBIDTA of 6.6x. We value TCL's core business at 14.4x its FY2009E diluted earnings and investments at Rs94.8 per share after discounting 50% of their fair value. We recommend Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs535.
STOCK UPDATE
Bajaj Auto
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs2,800
Current market price: Rs2,782
Downgraded to Hold
Key points
- The demand for two-wheelers is slow in December, as it is the last month of the year.
- Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAL) is expected to outperform the industry due to good demand from Platina and XCD. Sales of Pulsar and Discover continue to be slow in line with the industry trend.
- Discounts on Platina to continue in view of the strong order book and the waiting period. Production of XCD to be increased to 75,000 units from January 2008.
- The three-wheeler sales from the April-November period are down by 5.3%. The outlook for the passenger segment, where BAL is a leader, appears to be weak as the market for passenger vehicles is regulated.
- The stock has reached our price target of Rs2,800. Consequently, we downgrade the stock to a Hold. We still maintain our positive outlook on the company in view of the success of its new launches, the good volume growth expected in Q4FY2008, the High Court's approval of the de-merger that is expected soon and the value of its insurance subsidiaries. At the current market price of Rs2,782, the stock trades at 19.5x its FY2009E earnings and EV/EBIDTA of 12.4x.
Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs432
Current market price: Rs361
BoI to dilute 5% government stake
Key Points
- Bank of India's (BoI) board of directors have approved the proposed issuance of 3.8 crore shares through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) route. BoI will convene an Extraordinary General Meeting on January 23, 2008 for further proceedings. Meanwhile the Government of India, the largest shareholder in BoI, has approved the QIP placement with a stipulation that the placement should be made with public sector enterprises and mutual funds only.
- The 3.8 crore shares will be issued by diluting 5% government's stake in BOI. Following the QIP placement, the government holding in BOI will be reduced to 65.4% from 69.4% currently. The issuance of 3.8 crore shares, equivalent to 7.8% of the existing equity base of 48.8 crore shares, would help the bank raise around Rs1,325 crore.
- With this, BoI becomes the first public sector bank (PSB) to make a QIP placement. The placement through QIP route will help the bank fetch much better pricing in a shorter time span compared with a follow-on public offering (FPO) considering the relatively smaller size of the issue.
Bharti Airtel
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,100
Current market price: Rs985
Stake sale to unlock value
Bharti Airtel Ltd (BAL) has announced that a group of foreign investors has agreed to invest US $1 billion in its passive infrastructure subsidiary, Bharti Infratel Ltd (BIL). The international investors are Temasek Holdings, the Investment Corporation of Dubai, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, AIF Capital, Citigroup and India Equity Partners, with Temasek Holdings being the largest investor.
Crompton Greaves
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs646
Current market price: Rs400
Riding on power boom
Key points
- Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL) is one of the major players in transmission and distribution (T&D) equipment space in India. With vast product portfolio and a roll out of massive expenditure in the T&D space, we reassert our confidence in the company to show strong growth in years to come.
- Industrial and consumer segments of the company also look well placed to grow robustly. HT motors will drive the growth of industrial segment while the booming real estate industry will drive the growth of consumer segment.
- With acquisition of Pauwels, Ganz, and Microsol, CGL is well placed to garner a pie not only in domestic market but also in international markets. We expect CGL's consolidated revenues to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7% over FY2007-09E.
- CGL has signed a distribution franchise agreement with Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd (MSEDCL) for power distribution in three divisions of Nagpur for 15 years. The net present value (NPV) of the agreement is put at Rs2,600 crore. However we have not factored in any value from this agreement and would wait for CGL to acquire assets from the utility by the end of the year.
- At the end of H1FY2008, CGL had a consolidated order book of Rs5,211 crore. The order flow remains strong for both domestic and international businesses, and we believe this to continue going forward on the back of increased spending on T&D world over.
- Continued growth stint of CGL and management's endeavors to integrate all its acquisitions (Pauwel, Ganz, and Microsol) have been impressive. Historically, CGL has traded at a discount to the likes of ABB, Siemens, and Areva due to its limited product range. By integrating its international acquisitions, CGL has emerged as a complete solution provider in T&D sub-station business, and we expect the discount vis-à-vis its peers to get reduced. A wider product range would differentiate it in the domestic market and would enable it to compete effectively with other MNCs.
- At the current market price the stock trades at 34.9x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs11.5 and 26.7x its FY2009E EPS of Rs15.We believe these valuations are attractive because of (a) Robust operating performance of stand-alone company; (b) Higher geographical width and product depth of the company due to subsidiaries and (c) Management's expertise in turning around operations of subsidiaries. We remain bullish on the stock and reiterate Buy recommendation with the price target of Rs464.
Indian Hotels Company
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs180
Current market price: Rs150
On the right(s) track
Result highlights
- Indian Hotels Company Ltd's (IHCL) Q2FY2008 revenues grew by 15.7% year on year (yoy) to Rs341.4 crore. Room revenues continued to grow robustly and grew at 19% yoy for H1FY2008, as the average room rate (ARR) grew by 17.7% yoy to Rs8,581. The growth in room revenues appears strong considering the fact that a fair proportion of room inventory was under renovation in H1 (off season) and the fact that weak dollar adversely impacted the revenues.
- Stringent cost controls and operating leverage due to higher ARR's improved the operating profit margin (OPM) by 420 basis points yoy to 29%. The net interest charge was up by a hefty 64.4% yoy to Rs25.7 crore as proceeds from foreign currency convertible bond (FCCB) were fully deployed for recent international acquisitions. Incremental debt raised during the quarter also contributed to a rise in interest cost.
- Profit before tax (PBT) increased by 25.7% yoy to Rs77.7 crore, however a higher tax incidence at 31.5% in Q2FY2008 against 25.7% in Q2FY2007 led the net profit rise by 16% to Rs53.2 crore.
- IHCL acquired an 11.01% stake in Orient Express Hotels Ltd during the quarter and has further raised its stake to 11.5%. IHCL seeks a strategic alliance with the later, however Orient Express has rejected IHCL's offer for such a strategic alliance.
- We believe IHCL's strategy of expansion both in domestic and overseas markets and better profitability of its international operations would ensure that IHCL maintain the growth momentum. At the current market price of Rs150, IHCL trades at 20.9x its consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Rs7.2 (post dilution on account of the rights issues) for FY2009E. We maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs180.
ITC
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs241
Current market price: Rs205
Price target revised to Rs241
ITC's non-cigarette fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) business has grown by leaps and bounds over the last few years. The segment grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 77.6% over FY2004-07E to register revenues of Rs1,701.5 crore. The branded packaged foods division constitutes a major chunk and the growth of the segment. With presence across product categories of biscuits, staples, confectionery and snack foods, ITC has created big brands such as Sunfeast, Aashirvaad, Kitchens of India and the most recent Bingo. ITC is leveraging its wide sales and distribution network that has an unparallel reach throughout the country, economy and quality in procurement of inputs from its agri-business and strong cash flows from its cigarettes business to grow the branded foods business.
Jindal Saw
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,018
Current market price: Rs898
Price target revised to Rs1,018
Key points
- Jindal Saw Ltd (JSL), the largest pipe manufacturer in the country, continues to benefit from the huge opportunity in the sector due a surge in E&P activities globally and a strong domestic and export demand.
- At the end of the last quarter, JSL's order book stood at $715 million, which is executable by May/June 2008. Of this, $565 million orders are for Submerged Arc Welded (SAW) pipes while the remaining orders were for ductile iron (DI) and seamless pipes.
- The performance of the company is set to improve further going forward. The US operations had been a drag on company's earnings in the past. With the US division being hived off along with a better product mix due to higher contribution from seamless and DI pipes, the overall profitability of the company is set to improve.
- JSL has a big investment book with investments in various group companies, particularly Jindal Steel & Power and JSW Steel. The total investment value works out to Rs403 per share for JSL. We believe JSL has strong potential for value unlocking and the same is likely to trigger a re-rating of its stock. We value the core business of the company at 11x CY2009E earnings and take the investment value at a 75% discount to its current value.
- The company has an aggressive capital expenditure (capex) plan, as it is expanding its Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welded (LSAW) capacity by another 200,000 tonne by September 2008 and is adding 350,000 tonne to its Horizontal Submerged Arc Welded (HSAW) capacity. The total capex for the same would be Rs250 crore by the end of CY2008. The capacity expansion of the seamless pipes to 250,000 tonnes is also on schedule.
- We maintain our positive outlook on the company considering its leadership position in the industry and the scope for margin expansion. With the sale of the US operations, the company would also be sitting on a huge cash pile, which would partly be used for debt repayments and capacity expansions. We believe the stock is trading at attractive valuations at 17.1x its CY2008E earnings and 10.8x its CY2009E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,018.
JK Cement
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs330
Current market price: Rs246
Price target revised to Rs330
Key points
- JK Cement is expanding its capacity by 3.5 million metric tonne (MMT) through a greenfield plant at Karnataka, which will be accompanied by a 50-megawatt (MW) power plant at the site. The capital expenditure (capex) programme is in progress and the plant is expected to be commissioned by FY2009 end. This will augment the capacity of the company by 70% in FY2010 and will drive the volumes of the company going ahead.
- Refurbishment of Nihon facility is expected to be complete by the end of Q4FY2008 and would increase cement volumes by 350,000 tonne in FY2009.
- JK Cement's capex on captive power plants (CPPs) is progressing well. The company has already commissioned a 20MW pet coke based power plant and has replaced its 10MW turbine. It has partially implemented the 13MW waste heat recovery plant and expects the plant to get fully operational by FY2008 end.
- With all CPPs in place, the company will be able to save Rs150-200 per tonne on power consumption from FY2009.
- JK Cement's Q2 results were much above our expectations. The topline grew by a healthy 33% year on year (yoy) to Rs356 crore on the back of a blended volume growth of 12% yoy and a realisation growth of 17% yoy to Rs3,597 per tonne.
- Strict control on variable costs led the operating profit grow by 58% yoy and the operating profit margin (OPM) expand by 450 basis points to 28.2%. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne jumped by 40% yoy to Rs1,030 per tonne.
- Lower tax provision of 13% during the quarter made the profit after tax (PAT) grow by a whopping 142% yoy to Rs72.7 crore. The PAT growth was much ahead of our expectations.
- We have been bullish on the business prospects of JK Cement on account of its cost-cutting measures and capex programme. Savings in power costs from the CPPs coupled with higher volumes from its greenfield facility will be the major business drivers for the stock. The stock is trading at 10x its earnings and 6.6x its enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA on FY2009 earnings estimate. Even after a significant run-up in the last couple of months, it commands an EV per tonne of USD 84, which is lower than the benchmark asset valuation of USD 100-115 per tonne. Considering the cheap asset valuations, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with an upgraded price target of Rs330, leaving an upside of 30%.
Madras Cements
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs4,800
Current market price: Rs4,474
Price target revised to Rs4,800
Key points
- Madras Cements' topline grew by 23% year on year (yoy) to Rs500.12 crore. The topline rose on the back of a healthy 29% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in realisations, which compensated for 5% y-o-y decline in volumes.
- Variable costs per tonne jumped by 22.3% yoy on the back of a 27% y-o-y rise in power costs and 38% y-o-y rise in freight costs. Employee costs shot up by 38% yoy. Overall costs increased by 15% yoy translating into a per tonne rise of 21% yoy.
- Higher realisations led the operating profits grow by 36% yoy to Rs214.5 crore and the operating profit margin (OPM) expand by 400 basis points to 42.9%. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne zoomed to Rs1,548, the highest in the industry and the highest in the company's history as well.
- Interest cost and depreciation provision on a sequential basis remained more or less constant at Rs8.1 crore and Rs25.7 crore respectively.
- Other income doubled to Rs2.8 crore as the company deployed the surplus cash. Consequently, profit after tax (PAT) rose by 34% yoy to Rs120 crore.
- The company is expanding its capacity by 4 million metric tonne (MMT) to 10MMT by FY2009, as already mentioned in previous updates. The clinker unit at Jayanthipuram was commissioned in October 2007 as per schedule, whereas the 1MMT grinding unit at West Bengal has been delayed and will come up only in FY2009. The other 2MMT capacity expansion at Ariyalur is expected to come up at the end of Q2FY2009.
- Taking cognisance of the realisation growth in the current quarter, we are upgrading our FY2008 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 5.8% to Rs390 and FY2009 EPS estimate by 12.1% to Rs497.
- 4MMT capacity expansion will drive the company's volume growth going ahead. Healthy realisations in the South coupled with the company's efforts on cost control will aid it in maintaining its EBITDA at an above-industry average, which in turn will drive the profitability. The company will also be able to avail tax benefits for setting up wind mills. The robust cash flow position of the company will make it well placed to withstand the downturn in the cement cycle. At the current market price, the company is trading at 9.1x its FY2009 EPS and 5.4x its enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA. With the rise in benchmark valuations, we are upgrading the price target to Rs4,800 per share.
Mahindra & Mahindra
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs900
Current market price: Rs794
New launches to drive growth
Key points
- A diversified play in the auto sector Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) aims to become a speciality player and continue its domination in the utility vehicle (UV) segment.
- In the current year, the automotive segment has grown by 22% year till date (ytd). The growth was driven by UVs other than Scorpio (such as Bolero and Maxx Maxi Truck) and revenues from exports.
- Farm equipment contributing 35% to sales has under performed in the current year. Year-till-date (y-t-d) volumes were down by 5% as compared with 6% decline witnessed by the auto industry as a whole. The focus of integration of recently acquired Punjab Tractors Ltd (PTL) is recovery of outstanding dues.
- The new UV platform code named Ingenio is slated for launch in August 2008. A new Sports UV is planned to be launched from its Chennai facility. The joint venture (JV) with International Truck for manufacturing medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) is expected to start by CY2009.
- The management continues to unlock value in its various subsidiaries and group companies. We have estimated value of Rs40 per share from its subsidiary Mahindra Holiday Resorts which is to be listed in 2008. Any higher value on listing would further add to its holding.
- All new product launches would commence from FY2009 onwards, triggering good growth.
- At the current market price of Rs794, the stock quotes at 11.4x its FY2009E consolidated earnings. We continue to value M&M on the sum-of-the-parts basis and maintain Buy with a price target of Rs900.
Maruti Suzuki India
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,230
Current market price: Rs990
To play a greater role in Suzuki's operations
Key Points
- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSL) has outperformed the passenger vehicle segment in the current year due to the success of its new products. The new managing director (MD), Shinzo Nakanishi, aims to stay focused on the goal of achieving one million sales by 2010. This translates into a compounded annual growth of 14-14.5% in sales which is achievable.
- MSL is ready to play a greater role in Suzuki Motor Corporation's (SMC) global operations with increasing focus and investments in new product development.
- The new MD has reiterated that the current profit margins are not sustainable. We have already factored this guidance in our estimates.
Nicholas Piramal India
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs377
Current market price: Rs360
Nicholas forms joint venture for diagnostics
Nicholas Piramal India Limited (Nicholas) and Kyoto, Japan based ARKRAY, Inc. (ARKRAY) have entered into a 10-year 49:51 Joint Venture to market diagnostic products, mainly self-monitoring blood glucose systems in the Indian market.
Saregama India
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Book Profit
Current market price: Rs296
Book profit
Key points
- Saregama India Ltd (SIL) reported disappointing results for Q2FY2008. While the operating revenues fell by 2.7% year on year (yoy) to Rs33.8 crore, the operating profit declined by 57.9% to Rs2.7 crore. Consequently the net profit before extraordinary items decreased by 44.7% yoy to Rs2.6 crore.
- Operating profit margin (OPM) fell sharply to 7.9% in Q2FY2008 against 18.4% in Q2FY2007. The OPM declined primarily due to a sharp jump in royalty expenses that as a percent of sales increased by 860 basis points yoy to 28.6%. Royalty payments went up as royalty model has shifted from revenue sharing model to a fixed minimum guarantee model.
- SIL's audio sales declined sharply by 34% yoy in the last four quarters. Sale of cassettes and CDs is continually falling as consumers shift to non-physical formats of music such as radio and TV.
- SIL's share in acquiring new music rights declined to 9-10% from about 30% in the past. With competition setting in, the cost of acquiring these rights has gone up substantially. We believe that the current scenario wherein music rights are awarded on minimum guarantee as against revenue sharing in the past has increased the risk for music companies.
- Increasing competition, lack of aggression on the part of the management and sharper decline in physical sales raise concerns. We believe, the current market price of Rs295.5 fully factors the risks and rewards associated with SIL's business and thereby advice investors to book profit.
Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Services
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs615
Current market price: Rs590
Bags contract worth Rs261 crore
Shiv-vani Oil & Gas Exploration (Shiv-vani) has bagged a contract worth Rs261 crore from Oil India to deploy four onshore rigs (1500HP/2000HP) for a period of two years at various locations across the country.
The contract would further boost the company's existing order backlog of over Rs3,000 crore, thereby improving its revenue growth visibility.
SHAREKHAN SPECIAL
AMCs to see a change in benchmark valuations
Asset Management Companies (AMCs) in India could see a change in their benchmark valuations after the recent deal involving Reliance Capital and Eton Park, a global investment fund. The benefit of such change in valuations is likely to impact listed players like Reliance Capital, HDFC, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India (SBI) who have AMC as subsidiaries. SBI, Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bank of Baroda (BOB) also stand to gain as they hold 25% each in UTI AMC (likely to be listed soon).
Q3FY2008 IT earnings preview
The Q3 performance of frontline tech stocks is likely to be in line with street expectations with organic growth in revenues and earnings to be in the range of 5-7.5% on a sequential basis. Including the consolidation of results of Infocrossing (expected revenues of $60 million), Wipro Technologies' (Wipro) revenue growth is estimated to be around 12.3% sequentially. With no surprises in Q3 performance, the focus would be on the commentary related to the demand environment and the possible fallout of sub-prime issue. However, going by the recent comments of some of the global majors post their results, we expect the companies to maintain their neutral stand on the issue. Any sign of weakness in the commentary would severely impact the sentiments towards tech stocks.
MUTUAL GAINS
Sharekhan's top equity fund picks
We have identified the best equity-oriented schemes available in the market today based on the following 3 parameter : the past performance as indicated by the one and two year returns, the Sharpe ratio and Fama (net selectivity).
The past performance is measured by the one and two year returns generated by the scheme. Sharpe indicates risk-adjusted returns, giving the returns earned in excess of the risk-free rate for each unit of the risk taken. The Sharpe ratio is also indicative of the consistency of the returns as it takes into account the volatility in the returns as measured by the standard deviation.
FAMA measures the returns generated through selectivity, ie the returns generated because of the fund manager's ability to pick the right stocks. A higher value of net selectivity is always preferred as it reflects the stock picking ability of the fund manager.
SECTOR UPDATE
Information Technology
Recovery in tech stock
After drifting down continuously for past few months, tech stocks have recovered part of the lost ground on the back of renewed buying interest over the last couple of weeks. In addition to attractive valuations, the recovery has been driven by external factors such as stability of rupee against the dollar and indications of stable demand outlook by some of the global tech giants during their recent quarterly results.
Oil drilling
Adding fuel to fire
It couldn't have been better for oil drilling companies. The charter rates for drilling rigs are already at a record high level due to a favourable supply-demand scenario. In fact, the day rates have increased by as much as 200% to 300% (depending on the asset specification) over the past three years. For instance, an offshore rig (350-feet-jack-up rig) has been contracted at day rates of over $2,00,000, up from around $75,000-80,000 couple of years back.
Pharmaceuticals
Teva launches generic Protonix
Teva, the world's largest generic company, has launched the generic version of Wyeth/Altana's Protonix tablets in the USA on December 24, 2007 triggering off 180 days of exclusivity period for the product. Protonix is Altana's blockbuster drug for acidity and oesophageal reflux and is marketed in the USA by Wyeth. The product generated sales of close to $2.5 billion in 2006.
Telecommunications
Large players continue to dominate
GSM mobile service providers reported a net addition of 5.82 million subscribers during November, taking the total subscriber base to 165.8 million. The month-on-month (m-o-m) growth works out to 3.6%, which is bit lower than 3.7% reported in the previous month.
VIEWPOINT
Asian Electronics
New technology may fuel growth
Incorporated in 1964, AEL is involved in designing, manufacturing and marketing of energy efficient products and specialises in lighting solutions. AEL is also one of the few companies certified with Energy Saving Companies (ESCO) in India. Its manufacturing facilities are at Nashik, Silvassa, Chennai and Solan (Himachal Pradesh). Its largest domestic customers are local municipalities and utilities and include players like Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company and Central Power Distribution Company of Andhra Pradesh. AEL has a strong distribution network comprising over 450 distributors/ dealers and over 130 marketing consultants across the country.
Rolta India
Robust growth but fully priced
Rolta India (Rolta) has established itself as a leading offshore vendor in the geospatial information system (GIS) and engineering service space. It has three business divisions: GIS, engineering design and automation (EDA) and enterprise information & communication technology (ICT).
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