Thursday, February 21, 2008

Nifty February 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment rises

Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5130, at a discount of 24.45 points as compared to spot closing of 5154.45.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 43,987.02 crore, which was higher than Rs 36,397.03 crore on Tuesday, 19 February 2008.

Reliance Capital February 2008 futures were at premium, at 2007.95, compared to the spot closing of 2004.95.

Reliance Natural Resources February 2008 futures were at premium, at 133.40, compared to the spot closing of 132.70.

Reliance Energy February 2008 futures were at premium, at 1595, compared to the spot closing of 1573.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 126.35 points or 2.39% at 5154.45.

Crude closes above 100$ mark again

Fed Chairman's comment keeps crude above $100 mark

Crude prices ended once again higher today, Wednesday, 20 February, 2008. Prices rose today after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman's that Fed is quite ready to ease interest rates further to help US economy find a solid footing. Oil also rose after the U.S. dollar fell enhancing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery today closed at $100.74/barrel (higher by $0.73/barrel or 0.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, the March contract, which expired today, hit a record all-time high of $101.32 a barrel.

The Federal Reserve confirmed today that it is willing to do more to help the economy find its footing, but warned that inflation worries might necessitate swift rate hikes once growth resumes.

Yesterday crude prices had rallied more than 5% after it was reported that Iranian oil minister said over the weekend that reducing production is very normal for OPEC in March. Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer.

Brent crude oil for April settlement today fell $0.14 (0.1%) to $98.42 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude's biggest yearly gain in five years.

Natural gas remains unchanged

Natural gas in New York was little changed, erasing an earlier gain, on speculation supplies are ample for the remaining cold-weather months. Gas for March delivery fell 0.9 cent to $8.968 per million British thermal units. Gas surged 3.7% and has advanced 20% so far this year.

Against this backdrop, March reformulated gasoline ended down 1 cent at $2.59 a gallon and March heating oil dropped 1 cent to end at $2.75 a gallon.

In a monthly report released last week, EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.

At the MCX, crude oil for February delivery closed at Rs 3,952/barrel, higher by Rs 51 (1.3%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for February delivery closed at Rs 360.6/mmtbu, higher by Rs 3.3/mmtbu (0.9%)

Today's Pick - ABG Shipyard

We recommend a buy in ABG Shipyard from a short-term perspective. From the charts of ABG Shipyard, we see that the stock had formed a double top pattern spanning almost two months between November 2007 and January 2008 with baseline at Rs 870. On January 21, the stock conclusively penetrated the baseline of the double top and achieved the pattern price target. Thereafter, the stock continued to decline and found support at around Rs 600. This level almost coincides with 20 0-day moving average and a key support level. Triggered by positive divergence in the daily momentum indicator, the stock has recently commenced a short-term up-trend. This up move has breached the medium-term down trendline and 21-day moving average. We notice a crossover in the daily moving average convergence divergence, which indicates establishment of bullishness. Our short-term outlook for the stock is bullish. We expect the stock's existing up move to continue to our target price of Rs 840 in the short-term. Investors with a short-term perspective can buy the stock while keeping the stop loss at Rs 698.

Ranbaxy, SEAMEC, Crompton Greaves

Ranbaxy Laboratories
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs558
Current market price: Rs412

Board clears proposal for hiving off discovery R&D

Key points

  • The board of Ranbaxy Laboratories (Ranbaxy) has cleared a scheme of demerger of the company's New Drug Discovery Research (NDDR) unit into a subsidiary, Ranbaxy Life Science Research Ltd (RLSRL). The demerger scheme is subject to requisite approvals.
  • Under the scheme of demerger, all assets, liabilities, research personnel and pipeline related to the NDDR unit will be transferred to RLSRL. In consideration, each shareholder of Ranbaxy will receive one equity share of Re1 each of RLSRL for every four equity shares of Rs5 each held in Ranbaxy.
  • The demerged company will be an independent company, the equity shares of which will be listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), while global depositary receipts (GDR) will be listed at the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. All approvals required for the scheme to come into effect are expected in the 2nd half of 2008.
  • The demerger will enable the company to explore various funding options for the NDDR projects as well as allow for enhanced focus and dedicated resources for long-term value creation.
  • The demerger will also improve the profitability of the core manufacturing business. The management has indicated that the demerger will result in savings of approximately $25 million in CY2008. The savings have already been factored into our estimates.
  • At the current market price of Rs412, Ranbaxy is trading at 19.3x its base CY2008E earnings and 16.8x its base CY2009E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with the sum-of-the-parts price target of Rs558 (20x CY2009E earnings of base business plus Rs68 for exclusivity opportunities).

SEAMEC
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs273
Current market price: Rs165

Price target revised to Rs273

Result highlights

  • Q4CY2007 results of SEAMEC have been quite disappointing. The revenues during the quarter declined by 64% year on year (yoy) to Rs22.3 crore from Rs61.6 crore due to lesser deployment of vessels. During the quarter, SEAMEC III was the only vessel that was fully deployed, while SEAMEC II and SEAMEC IV were not operational due to up-gradation or repair work for longer duration than expected. SEAMEC I was also under-utilised due to premature termination of contract.
  • The company registered an operating loss of Rs11.6 crore as against the operating profit of Rs30.4 crore during the corresponding quarter last year (Q4CY2006). The company incurred dry docking expense of Rs10.3 crore during the quarter.
  • The company suffered a net loss of Rs15.9 crore during the quarter as against the net profit of Rs25.9 crore during Q4CY2006 on account of lower revenue generation and higher dry docking expenses.
  • On yearly basis, the revenues registered a modest growth of 7.1% to Rs170.4 crore, while the operating profit declined by 28.2% to Rs50.8 crore.
  • With SEAMEC II to be out of operations for a minimum of six-month duration and delay in up-gradation of SEAMEC IV, we expect the company's performance to suffer during H1CY2008. Consequently, we are downgrading our CY2008 estimates to Rs23.1 per share from the earlier estimate of Rs33.5 per share.
  • At the current market price, the stock trades at 7.2x CY2008 and 5.2x CY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs273 (8.5x CY2009 earnings).

Crompton Greaves
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs423
Current market price: Rs313

Price target revised to Rs423

Key points

  • The M9FY2008 performance of Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL) has been below our expectations. The power system business of the company displayed sluggish growth in its revenues. While in Q2 the revenue growth saw a set back due to a fire in a transformer plant, the Q3 revenues grew by only 13.1% due to logistical problem and delay in the delivery of orders.
  • In the recent conference call, the management of the company has guided for a revenue growth of 19% in the power business, 20% in the industrial business and 15% in the consumer business in FY2008. The guidance was below our earlier estimates, leading us to the downgrade our estimates.
  • In this report, we are also introducing our FY2010 earning estimates and expect CGL revenues and profits to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% and 33.7% respectively over FY2007-10E.
  • The standalone order book of the company remained flat at Rs2,175 crore, while the consolidated order book of the group stood at USD1.3 billion. We expect the order inflow to pickup from Q4FY2008 onwards.
  • On a consolidated basis, the company reported net sales of Rs1,713.5 crore, while the net profit was at Rs82.7crore. The consolidated operating profit margin (OPM) increased by 80 basis points quarter on quarter (qoq) to 10.9%. An year-on-year (y-o-y) comparison could not be made, as the quarterly consolidated numbers were not reported earlier.
  • We have downgraded our earnings estimates by 8.8% and 4% respectively for FY2008 and FY2009. Our revised earning per share (EPS) estimates now stands at Rs10.6 and Rs14.4 for FY2008 and FY2009 respectively.
  • We remain bullish on the stock and reiterate Buy recommendation with a revised price target of Rs423. We have valued CGL based on 23x FY2010E EPS, which is based at 15% premium to our target multiple of Thermax.
  • CGL is one of the largest players in the power sector and with the acquisition of Pauwel, Ganz, and Microsol has plugged the gaps in its products and services offerings. We believe these valuations are attractive because of (a) Robust operating performance of the company on a standalone basis; (b) Higher geographical width and product depth of the company due to its subsidiaries and (c) Management's expertise in turning around the operations of the subsidiaries. At the current market price, the stock trades at 21.7x and 17x its FY2009E and FY2010E consolidated earnings.

Reliance Power - targeted by FIIs ?

It's well known that Anil Ambani's Reliance Power lost 17% to close on Rs 372.50 against the issue price of Rs 450 on its debut on the stock exchanges. But what's not known is that a handful of Mauritius-based foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and a domestic bank offloaded their entire or almost entire shareholding in the company within minutes of the opening bell.

The stock opened with a handsome premium at Rs 530 on NSE and Rs 547.80 on BSE at 9.55 am. But within four minutes, it went down by 26% to Rs 389.80 on NSE. The fall was even sharper on BSE by 28% to Rs 395. In other words, it fell almost 7% a minute, resulting in erosion of shareholders' wealth of Rs 30,000 crore.

Reliance Power is well aware of the price hammering on the first day. Incidentally, all companies of Mr Ambani's group were down by 10-20% on that day. In a letter written on February 15, Reliance Power has requested the market regulator to investigate the matter in line with the Sebi ( Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices) Regulations.

The letter, which was addressed to the Sebi chairman, has demanded the regulator investigate all relevant information and data from the stock exchanges, including the quantities of shares sold, the identity of the brokers and their clients, the pattern and timing of the sales and the funding of margins, stock lending under the FII route and P-notes.
The very nature of the stock trading demands that the price should move in both directions. So what's so special about it? The answer, perhaps, lies in the way the FIIs exited from the counter within minutes by selling their shares at a price lower than their purchase cost.

A closer look at the trading data indicates that as much as 23.77 million shares, 10.4% of the total 228 million shares sold through the Reliance Power IPO, changed hands on the twin bourses of Mumbai within the first four minutes of trade. More interestingly, the entire sale took place at the price ranging between Rs 443 and 392, lower than the allotment price of Rs 450. "They did not mind to exit at a loss, but did not have the patience to continue for a few more days, forget months. Why did they apply for the issue?" asked a city-based broker who did not wish to be named.

Three FIIs sold out their entire allotment of 2.6 million shares each during the period. Five other FIIs sold almost their entire holdings - they sold 2.47 million, 2.46 million, 2.45 million, 1.99 million and 1.68 million, respectively while a domestic bank sold 1.69 million.

A person close to the development said some sell orders were made at progressively declining prices - completely irrational to a seller- pointing towards a concerted attempt at hammering at the counter. In some cases, the visible quantity of sale orders was much larger than the traded quantity, leading to the suspicion that large quantities were displayed to create panic, and they were withdrawn. "All this points out towards a possibility of a pre-meditated manipulation of the Reliance Power order book to create a negative sentiment," he added.

The Reliance Power board will meet on Sunday to consider issue of bonus shares to the shareholders, excluding the promoters. The company said promoters would accept the dilution in their shareholding in the broader interest of investors.

The IPO had closed on January 18 by creating a history of sort when it got investment commitments of Rs 750,000 crore from nearly 500 institutional investors and five million retail investors. Subsequent to the closing of the IPO, the global and Indian equity markets suffered an extra-ordinary meltdown, with all benchmark indices down 15-20 % and leading Indian stocks lower by 20-40%.

Some people also blame the management for 'over-pricing' the issue. Indirectly, the management agrees to it by announcing that it will consider issue of free shares to the non-promoter shareholders. The stock on Wednesday closed at Rs 408.20 on BSE, 1.23% lower than Tuesday's close.