BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 22 2008

 Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
22/7/2008 590059 BIHAR TUBES SECUROCROP SECURITIES INDIA P B 42497 163.38
22/7/2008 590059 BIHAR TUBES SECUROCROP SECURITIES INDIA P S 69764 157.26
22/7/2008 523489 CMM HOSPITAL. SHEETAL RAJESH JAIN B 38250 19.16
22/7/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF S V ENTERPRISES B 2112269 4.83
22/7/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF S V ENTERPRISES S 2168744 4.71
22/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR B 115482 137.67
22/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MERIT CREDIT CORPORATION LTD S 105000 137.95
22/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR S 115482 136.32
22/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV PREM M PARIKH B 28000 22.54
22/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH P PABARI B 28500 22.50
22/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI S 90000 22.53
22/7/2008 500151 GTC INDUSTRI L AND T FINANCE LIMITED S 173000 104.90
22/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD B 84700 21.53
22/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD S 98367 20.94
22/7/2008 517522 RAJ GLO WIR MIDEX GLOBAL PVT. LTD. B 25000 91.30
22/7/2008 517522 RAJ GLO WIR SWASTIKA FIN LEASE LTD. S 25000 91.30
22/7/2008 513583 SBT INTERN KAPIL PURI B 300682 13.50
22/7/2008 513583 SBT INTERN CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS MAURITIUS PVT LTD S 125000 13.50
22/7/2008 513583 SBT INTERN ABN AMRO BANK NV LONDON S 88264 13.50

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 22 2008

 Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,ALPHA CHEMIE TRADE AGENCIES PVT LTD,BUY,93836,136.00,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,91316,134.79,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,BUY,101076,127.50,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,FIN BRAINS SECURITIES (INDIA) LTD.,BUY,129884,135.31,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,245334,138.07,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,S. J. SECURITIES LIMITED,BUY,100000,137.99,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,313536,135.90,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YUVAK SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,191600,135.51,-
22-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,BUY,3997910,39.99,-
22-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,BUY,5993807,39.96,-
22-JUL-2008,KHAITANLTD,Khaitan (India) Ltd.,MANOJ CHHAWCHHARIA,BUY,102000,36.14,-
22-JUL-2008,SB&TINTL,SB&T International Ltd,PURI KAPIL,BUY,305713,13.50,-
22-JUL-2008,TFCILTD,Tourism Finance Corp ,NEO SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,555344,14.72,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,ALPHA CHEMIE TRADE AGENCIES PVT LTD,SELL,93836,139.22,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,91326,135.92,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,SELL,41076,140.09,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,FIN BRAINS SECURITIES (INDIA) LTD.,SELL,129884,135.44,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,MERIT CREDIT CORPORATION LTD,SELL,110000,137.86,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,245334,137.65,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,S. J. SECURITIES LIMITED,SELL,125000,135.13,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,SCB CORPORATION PROP SUNIL BAMCHA,SELL,98219,139.64,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,313536,136.30,-
22-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YUVAK SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,191569,135.88,-
22-JUL-2008,GTCIND,GTC Industries Ltd,L&T FINANCE LIMITED,SELL,125875,107.34,-
22-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,SELL,3982804,40.02,-
22-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,SELL,5993807,39.98,-
22-JUL-2008,JAYAGROGN,Jayant Agro Organics Ltd.,SHASHIKANT BHAI PATEL,SELL,100000,53.43,-
22-JUL-2008,KHAITANLTD,Khaitan (India) Ltd.,CD EQUI FINANCE PVT LTD,SELL,110000,36.14,-
22-JUL-2008,SB&TINTL,SB&T International Ltd,ABN AMRO BANK N.V. LONDON BRANCH,SELL,88264,13.50,-
22-JUL-2008,SB&TINTL,SB&T International Ltd,CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,131742,13.50,-
22-JUL-2008,TFCILTD,Tourism Finance Corp ,Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd,SELL,715000,14.76,-
22-JUL-2008,TFCILTD,Tourism Finance Corp ,NEO SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,50450,14.78,-

Post Session Commentary - July 22 2008

The domestic market continued its rally as it witnessed strong buying support from the sectoral heavy weights as it sensed that vote of confidence would be in favor of UPA so that they will stay as a government. Trust vote is fixed at 6PM today, which will decide that UPA's continuance as a government or not. Indian market opened on flat note due to the political uncertainty but further it gathered the momentum to trade higher on hopes that the government will last its term. Due to the strong buying support over the counters, market extended its gains to close on a firm note. The BSE Sensex ended above 14,000 level and NSE Nifty closed above 4,200 mark. From the sectoral front, the FMCG and Power indices closed with a gain of more than 4%. Along with this huge buying was seen in Metal, Capital Goods, Bank and Oil & Gas stocks. However, Auto stock was only sufferer of negative sentiment. The market breadth was positive as 1849 stocks closed in green while 734 stocks closed in red and 74 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 254.16 points at 14,104.20 and NSE Nifty ended up by 80.60 points at 4,240.10. The BSE Mid Caps closed with gains of 89.04 points at 5,346.03 and Small Cap ended up by 98.44 points 6,536.42. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 14,206.13 and intraday low of 13,798.18.

Gainers from the BSE are Reliance Infra (6.83%), Ranbaxy Lab (4.74%), BHEL (6.04%), ITC Ltd (6.00%), Wipro Ltd (5.93%), Cipla Ltd (4.99%), Reliance Com Ltd (4.83%), Tata Steel (4.32%), ACC Ltd (4.08%) and SBI (3.73%).

Lossers from the BSE are Maruti Suzuki (9.29%), JP Associates (4.26%), Bharti Airtel (2.47%), DLF Ltd (2.00%) and Tata Motors (1.94%).

The BSE Metal index closed up by 466.21 points at 12,232.45. Gainers are Sesa Goa Ltd (7.01%), Welspan Gujarat Sr (7.00%), Steel Authority (6.96%), Jindal Steel (6.34%), Tata Steel (4.32%), and Ispat Industries (3.43%).

The BSE Capital Goods index ended up by 343.44 points at 11,406.30. As Jyoti Struct (18.03%), Alstom Proje (7.43%), Areva (6.17%), BHEL (6.04%), Punj Lloyd (5.10%) and Thermax Ltd (4.79%) closed in positive territory.

The BSE Bank index closed higher by 200.27 points at 6,628.98. Major gainers are Kotak Bank (6.97%), Axis Bank (6.09%), Bank of Baroda (5.50%), SBI (3.73%), Union Bank (3.60%), Canara Bank (3.38%), and Indian Overseas Bank (3.22%).

The BSE Power index gained 103.44 points to close at 2,512.68. Major gainers are Reliance Power (7.90%), GVK Power (7.70%), Reliance Infra (6.83%), Tata Power (6.23%), Areva (6.17%) and BHEL (6.04%).

The BSE Oil & Gas index ended up by 73.15 points at 9,382.31. As Reliance Natural Resources (6.83%), Cairn India (4.43%), BPCL (4.40%), Reliance Pet (3.53%) and HPCL (2.71%) closed in positive territory.

The BSE Auto index lost 35.10 points to close at 3,628.06. Major lossers are Maruti Suzuki (9.29%), Bharat Forge (4.02%), Tata Motors (1.94%) and Escorts Ltd (1.92%).

Sensex ends firm above 14,100

The market remained buoyant on strong foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and the index surged past the 14,200 mark in intra-day trades. Resuming on a negative note at 13,838, 12 points below its previous close of 13,850, Sensex turned positive and crossed the 14,000 mark in the afternoon. A positive close in most of the Asian indices triggered a major rally in heavyweight, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), power, metal and banking stocks that helped Sensex surge to an intra-day high of 14,206. Sensex finally closed with gains of 254 points at 14,104, while Nifty added 81 points to close at 4,240.

The market breadth was extremely positive. Of the 2,657 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,849 stocks advanced, while only 734 stocks declined; 74 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, BSE FMCG gained 4.35% followed by BSE Power index, which was up 4.29%. BSE Metal index was up 3.96%, BSE Bankex index gained 3.12% and BSE capital goods (CG) index gained 3.10%. BSE public sector unit (PSU) index jumped by 2.50%, BSE information technology (IT) index moved up by 1.89% and BSE consumer durables (CD) index was up 1.66%. BSE TEck index, BSE Oil & Gas index, BSE health care (HC) and BSE Realty index also ended the day in positive. However, BSE Auto index closed in the red, down 0.96%.

Leading the upsurge in Sensex, Reliance Infra soared 6.83% at Rs846. BHEL advanced 6.04% at Rs1597.50, ITC rose 6% at Rs189.90, Wipro advanced 5.93% at Rs394.75, Cipla added 4.99% at Rs237.75, Reliance Communications jumped 4.83% at Rs468.15, Tata Steel gained 4.32% at Rs624.35 and ACC moved up 4.08% at Rs564.50. SBI, M&M, Hindalco, HDFC, ICICI Bank, TCS, L&T, Grasim and HUL also ended the day in positive territory with 2-3% each. However, Maruti Suzuki India dropped 9.29% at Rs587.95, JP Associates was down 4.26% at Rs159.45 while Bharti Airtel, DLF and Tata Motors also ended at lower levels.

On the volume front, over 2.21 crore Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) shares changed hands on the BSE followed by IFCI (1.23 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL; 0.95 crore shares), Ispat Industries (0.72 crore shares) and JP Associates (0.65 crore shares).

Market gains smartly

The market ended with smart gains for the fourth consecutive session in a row on expectations the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government will win the trust vote in parliament. The market, which had turned volatile in the second half of trading session on account of weak global cues, firmed up in the late trade again on all round buying support. All the sectoral indices on BSE, barring the auto index, ended in green.

As per provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours, foreign funds today, 22 July 2008, sold shares worth a net Rs 597.35 crore. Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 261.61 crore.

Meanwhile, a high drama was witnessed in Lok Sabha today afternoon after market hours when Ashok Argal, a BJP MP from Morena walked into the well with a bag full of currency notes, which he claimed was given by a Samajwadi Party leader in return for his support in the trust vote. Amid the chaos, Deputy Speaker Charanjit Atwal adjourned the House briefly

The government is seeking the trust vote after the Left parties early this month withdrew support to the government. Reports suggest that the government has a wafer-thin edge of winning the trust vote.

Following disruption in Lok Sabha in afternoon, voting on the trust motion was likely to be delayed. Earlier Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee had announced that electronic voting will take place on the trust motion in parliament at 18:00 IST today. A debate on the trust vote is going on in the parliament since yesterday in a special session being held for the purpose.

If the government wins the confidence vote it will continue to be in power. If the government loses the trust vote, the president could ask the prime minister to continue in power as a caretaker government. The Election Commission of India will then fix a date and mid-term polls will be held.

The 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 254.16 points or 1.84% at 14,104.20. The index gained 356 points at day's high of 14,206.13 hit in early afternoon trade. The Sensex shed 51.86 points at day's low of 13,798.18, hit at the onset of trading session.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty advanced 80.6 points or 1.94% at 4240.10. Nifty July 2008 futures were at 4271.90, at a premium of 31.80 points as compared to spot closing.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.69% to 5,346.03 and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 1.53% to 6,536.42.

The market breadth was strong on BSE with 1849 shares advancing as compared to 734 that declined. 74 remained unchanged.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5504 crore, higher than Rs 4,408.03 crore on Monday, 21 July 2008. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 54,100.84 crore, which was higher than Rs 43942.21 crore on Monday, 21 July 2008.

The market has witnessed a solid surge ahead of the government's trust vote. Sensex has risen for four consecutive trading sessions ahead of trust vote in the parliament later today. Sensex has risen 1528.4 points or 12.15% in last four trading sessions from its close of 12575.80 on 16 July 2008. The barometer index is down 6182.79 points or 30.47% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 7102.57 points or 33.49% away from its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

ITC (up 6% at Rs 189.90), Wipro (up 5.93% at Rs 394.75), Cipla (up 4.99% at Rs 237.75), Reliance Communication (up 4.83% at Rs 468.15), and ACC (up 4.08% at Rs 564.50), were the prominent gainers from the Sensex pack today, 22 July 2008.

India's largest drug maker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories rose 1.03% at Rs 462.90 after the company said a UK court had quashed the country's Serious Fraud Office's (SFO) prosecution of the firm's subsidiary. Ranbaxy said in a statement the English Crown Court had also declined an application by the SFO for permission to appeal to the English Court of Appeal. However, the SFO retained a right to appeal to the court directly, the Indian firm said.

Jaiprakash Associates (down 4.26% at Rs 159.45), Bharti Airtel (down 2.47% at Rs 778.75), DLF (down 2% at Rs 454.15), and Tata Motors (down 1.94% at Rs 411.90), were the major losers from the Sensex pack.

India's largest passenger carmaker by sales Maruti Suzuki (India) slumped 9.29% to Rs 587.95. Its net profit fell 6.8% to Rs 465.85 on a 20.9% increase in sales to Rs 4753.58 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007. Maruti declared the results after market hours on Monday, 21 July 2008.

Power sector stocks were in demand. Reliance Power (up 7.90% at Rs 142.75), GVK Power & Infrastructure (up 7.70% at Rs 33.55), Reliance Infrastructure (up 6.83% at Rs 919.30), and Tata Power (up 6.23% at Rs 1,108.65), soared. The BSE Power index outperformed the Sensex, rising 4.29% to 2,512.68.

India's largest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) rose 6.04% at Rs 1,597.50. Its net profit rose 33.1% to Rs 384.41 crore on a 33.9% increase in sales to Rs 4329.24 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007. The company's outstanding order book stood at Rs 95,000 crore as on 30 June 2008. Bhel declared results after market hours on Monday, 21 July 2008.

Electrical equipment maker Areva T&D jumped 6.17% to Rs 1,617.15 after the company said its board will meet on 29 July 2008 to consider a 5-for-1 stock split.

Metal shares rose. Sesa Goa (up 7.01% at Rs 2,878.35), Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren (up 7% at Rs 314.15), Jindal Steel & Power (up 6.34% at Rs 1,862.90), and Ispat Industries (up 3.43% at Rs 22.60), soared. The BSE Metal index outperformed the Sensex, rising 3.96% to 12,232.45.

World's sixth largest steel maker Tata Steel rose 4.32% at Rs 624.35 after its Thailand unit reported a surge in quarterly net profit and on expectations for a domestic price rise.

India's largest state-run steel maker by output Steel Authority of India (Sail) rose for the second day in a row after it reported good Q1 results during trading hours yesterday, 21 July 2008. The stock rose 6.96% to Rs 134.40. Sail's net profit rose 20.3% to Rs 1835.19 crore on a 37.2% increase in sales to Rs 11029.44 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Banking shares moved up. Kotak Mahindra bank (up 6.97% at Rs 510.15), Axis Bank (up 6.09% at Rs 740.05), and Bank of Baroda (up 5.50% at Rs 243.65), spurted. The BSE Bankex outperformed the Sensex, rising 3.12% to 6,628.98.

India's largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank rose 2.67% to Rs 661.30. The stock hit an intra-day high of Rs 677.80 earlier in the day.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries was almost unchanged at Rs 2154.30. Bombay High Court has reportedly adjourned a hearing on the dispute over the gas supply agreement between Reliance Industries of Mukesh Ambani (RIL) and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) of Anil Ambani, to Wednesday, 23 July 2008.

For RNRL, the availability and pricing of gas from RIL's Krishna-Godavari basin is critical for the success of its proposed 7,500 megawatt power plant in Dadri. RIL, on the other hand, wants court approval so that it can enter into contracts with third parties for the sale of gas as production from the KG basin draws near.

India's second largest software exporter by sales Infosys Technologies rose 1.10% at Rs 1578.95.

Power generation equipment maker Thermax rose 4.79% at Rs 401.05 after the company, during market hours today, reported 13.72% rise in net profit to Rs 63.70 crore on a 7.56% increase in sales to Rs 7,16.97 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

State-run mortgage lender LIC Housing Finance rose 1.90% to Rs 262.25 on reports it is set to foray into the venture capital arena and intends to start a Rs 500 crore real estate fund by the end of this financial year.

Drug maker Lupin gained 4.22% to Rs 726.75 on reporting 38.45% rise in net profit to Rs 108.52 on 18.39% rise in total income to Rs 712.42 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Toys maker Hanung Toys & Textiles gained 0.72% to Rs 190 after posting 101% rise in net profit to Rs 18.69 crore on a 71.4% rise in sales to Rs 146.04 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Offshore services provider Aban Offshore declined 3.41% to Rs 2,568.40 on concerns of equity dilution after the company said it plans of raise funds through various routes.

Reliance Capital reported the highest turnover of Rs 424.32 crore on BSE. Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 254.36 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 218.07 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 160.86 crore) and Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 160.10 crore), were the other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked a highest volume of 2.21 crore shares on BSE. IDFC (1.23 crore shares), IFCI (1.20 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (95.29 lakh shares), and Ispat Industries (72.31 lakh shares), were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.

European markets, which opened after Indian market, were in red. Key indices in UK, France and Germany were down 0.68% to 1.44%. European markets tumbled after a worse-than-forecast profit fall from Ericsson and a revenue warning from Vodafone spooked investors.

Asian markets, which were subdued earlier in the day, pared losses as the trading session proceeded. Key indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan were down by 0.02% to 0.93%. However, key index in Japan was up 2.98%. The Asian indices had fallen earlier as several major US companies, including American Express Co, iPod maker Apple Inc and cruise ship operator Royal Caribbean Cruises, disappointed investors with lower-than-expected quarterly results on Monday, 21 July 2008.

US stocks finished lower on Monday, 21 July 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 29.23 points or 0.25% at 11,467.34. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3.25 points or 0.14% at 2,279.53.

Pre Session Commentary - July 22 2008

The Indian Market is expected to have negative opening on the back of unfavorable global cues as US market ended lower and Asian markets are trading mixed. On Monday, the Indian market closed with gains after going through little volatility during the trading session. The domestic market yesterday opened on firm note, tracking strong cues from the Asian markets. Further, market trimmed its initial gains as investors were taking calculative steps on political worries but later managed to gather and maintain the higher momentum to close with good gains. The BSE Sensex ended above 13,800 mark and NSE Nifty closed above 4,100 level. From the sectoral front, the Bank and Pharma indices closed with a gain of more than 3%. Along with this Reality, Metal and Oil & Gas stocks also witnessed buying interest. However, Capital Goods and Consumer Durables stocks were major sufferers of negative sentiment. The BSE Sensex closed higher by 214.64 points at 13,850.04 and NSE Nifty ended up by 67.25 points at 4,159.50.

We expect that market may remain volatile during the trading session and crucial trust vote will set direction for the market. There will be vote of confidence in parliament today, which will decide UPA's continuation as a government.

On Monday, the US market was closed in red as oil turned higher after a sharp drop last week by more than $2 to above $US131 a barrel. An announcement by Bank of America also added to negative sentiment about its second-quarter profit of $3.4 billion to $1 billion, down 41% from previous year.

The NASDAQ ended lower by 29.23 points at 11,467.34, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 3.25 points at 2,279.53 along with S&P 500 ended down by 0.68 points at 1,260.00.

Indian ADRs ended down. In technology sector, Satyam ended down by (5.22%) along with Wipro closed down by (3.05%), Infosys by (2.45%) and Patni Computers dropped by (2.13%). In banking sector, HDFC bank gained by (1.66%) while ICICI bank lost (0.13%). In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication ended up by (0.10%) and MTNL ended down by (0.44%). Sterlite industries increased by (3.59%).

Today the major stock markets in Asia are trading mixed Japan's Nikkei is trading higher by 165.31 points at 12,969.01 while Hang Seng index trading down by 24.36 points at 22,508.54 and Taiwan Weighted trading at 7,071.49 dropped by 14.18 points.

 

The FIIs on Monday stood as net buyer in equity. The gross equity purchased was Rs2,988.40 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs0.00 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs2,399.20 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs0.00 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs589.20 Crore and net debt was Rs0.00 Crore.

Today, Nifty has support at 4,081 and resistance at 4,221 and BSE Sensex has support at 13,576 and resistance at 14,106.

Market may remain volatile

The market is moving in tune with international markets for last few sessions. The local indices may witness volatility following the overnight gains in the European markets and major Asian gauges like the Nikkei, the Hang Seng index, the Straits Times Index and the Jakarta index are trading in mixed territory in current trades. Although the domestic indices moved up on Monday, intra-day volatility remains the major concern. Among the local indices, the Nifty could test higher levels around the 4215 level and has a support at 4100. The Sensex on the downside may slip to 13700 and may face resistance at 14055.

In the US markets, the broader Dow Jones was down by 29 points at 11467 and the Nasdaq was lost three points to close at 2280.

Indian ADR's had a mixed outing on the US bourses. Satyam was the major loser and tanked 5.22% while Dr Reddy, Wipro and Infosys slumped over 2-4% each. ICICI Bank and MTNL ended with steady loss However, Rediff jumped by 4.58% and Patni Computer surged over 2.13% while HDFC Bank, Tata Motors andVSNL ended with the marginal gains.

Crude oil prices gained marginally, with the Nymex light crude oil for August delivery moved up by $2.16 to close at $131.04 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for August series gained $5.70 to settle at $963.70 a troy ounce.

Market may remain jittery

Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake.

The Prime Minister was all smiles and flashed the "V" sign before moving the much-awaited confidence motion in the Lok Sabha. Fellow Congress leader and Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee went one step ahead, saying that the UPA had secured 276 votes. The confidence displayed by the two senior Congressmen rubbed off on the stock market, with the key indices gaining 1.5% each. A healthy trend in Asian markets and relatively stable oil prices forced the bears on the backfoot for the third successive day.

However, the broader market continued to buck the bullish trend. Market breadth was also negative. Also, institutions (both local and foreign) remained cautious ahead of the crucial trust vote.

In global markets, US stocks ended slightly lower after last week's rally. Oil prices have gained over $2 amid fears of disruption in the Gulf of Mexico from Tropical Storm Dolly. Lack of breakthrough in multilateral talks over Iran's nuclear program too pushed up prices. Markets in Europe rose while Asian markets are marginally down this morning. Japanese shares rose over 1% after yesterday's holiday.

Coming to today's outlook, the market could start off slightly lower. After that the trend is likely to be volatile and rangebound, as most players will stay cautious before the trust vote. The debate on the confidence motion will continue and the vote is unlikely before the close of trading. Uncertainty over the trust vote will keep most players nervous. So, it is difficult to predict a clear direction today. The market's reaction to the outcome of the trust vote will be known only tomorrow.

As for the much-talked about trust vote, it is still too close to call, as Indian politics is highly unpredictable. The UPA is banking on abstentions from the Opposition camp and a few defections as well. Its biggest threat is the emergence of the Third Front (Left-BSP-UNPA). Most political commentators and media expect the Government to survive the trial of strength by a small margin. The bulls will rejoice a UPA win, while a loss will lead to a knee-jerk fall. Once the dust settles, the focus will turn to the fundamentals, which remain fragile. Stay on the sidelines for the day due to the big event risk.

Key Results Today: Alfa Laval, Asian Paints, Bank of Rajasthan, Century Textiles, EMCO, Hanung Toys, IDBI Bank, Indraprastha Gas, Jindal Stainless, Lupin, NIIT Tech, NOCIL, Seamec, Sesa Goa, Siemens, Strides Arcolab, Tata Elxsi and Thermax.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs622.2mn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday. The local institutions offloaded shares worth Rs2.31bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs15.32bn. On Friday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs5.89bn in the cash segment. Mutual funds were net buyers of Rs1.3bn.

Asian markets were trading mixed. The Nikkei in Tokyo rallied 1.3% to 12,969 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was nearly unchanged at 22,531. The Kospi in Seoul was down 0.3% at 1557 while the Straits Times in Singapore dropped 0.7% at 2899. The Taiex in Taiwan lost 0.2% at 7074 and the Shanghai Composite in China shed 0.5% to 2847.

US stocks fell on Monday after oil prices rebounded, and investors turned cautious again on the financial sector. Sentiment was also affected by after pharma giants - Merck & Co. and Schering Plough - postponed reporting their quarterly results. Norwegian researchers said a study found a cholesterol drug marketed by the two companies to be ineffective in curtailing a cardiac condition.

The S&P 500 index closed nearly flat at 1,260. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 29.23 points, or 0.3%, to 11,467.34, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,279.53.

Market breadth remained positive. Seven stocks advanced for every five that fell on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), as all 39 energy companies in the S&P 500 advanced.

Oil prices rebounded strongly, following the largest four-day slide in trading history. Investors focused on a breakdown of negotiations with Iran, as well as Tropical Storm Dolly, which is making its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery settled up $2.16 to $131.04 a barrel.

Regular unleaded gas fell to $4.069 a gallon, down from $4.077 the previous day.

Yahoo announced a settlement with activist investor Carl Icahn over its lineup of candidates for board. Yahoo said the board is being expanded to 11 members, one of whom will be Icahn, along with two other added positions from Icahn's proposed slate of nine candidates. Shares of Yahoo slipped by more than 3%. Yahoo was scheduled to report its earnings Tuesday.

After the bell, Apple reported its third-quarter profit jumped 31%, beating Wall Street's expectations. The technology giant earned $1.07bn, or $1.19 per share, 11 cents ahead of Wall Street's expectations. Shares of Apple ended the trading day up 0.6%, but guidance for the coming quarter hit the stock in after-hours trading, pushing the stock down about 4.5%.

After the close, Merck announced that its second-quarter profit beat analyst expectations. Several charges drove second-quarter profit for Schering-Plough down, but adjusted profit results for the quarter topped Wall Street expectations.

Bank of America reported better-than-expected earnings, even as it revealed that its profit plunged 41% in the most recent quarter. After the bell, American Express reported profits that missed expectations badly, citing an economic environment that "has weakened significantly.

In currency trading, the dollar lost ground against both the euro and the yen. In the bond market, Treasury prices mostly increased, and the yield of the 10-year benchmark fell to 4.06%, from 4.08% late on Friday. COMEX gold for August delivery settled $5.70 higher at $963.70 an ounce.

Europe stocks advanced, led by banks. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% to 282.36 after Bank of America topped earnings estimates. UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.5% to 5,404.30, while Germany's DAX 30 added 0.7% to 6,424.84, and the French CAC 40 was up 0.6% at 4,327.14.

Volatile markets ended with smart gains extending winning streak to third straight trading session. Firm global cues coupled with declining crude oil prices lifted the Indian bourses to open with a positive gap. Thereon key indices turned volatile and witnessed alternate bouts of buying and selling.

However, bulls gained momentum ahead of the trust vote on back of short covering. Finally the Sensex gained 214 points to close at 13,850 and the Nifty surged 67 points to close at 4,159.

Among the 30-scrips of Sensex, RIL, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and SBI were among the major gainers. However, the laggards were Satyam and L&T.

In the overall market, 1,163 stocks advanced and 1,368 stocks declined. Whereas, 84 stocks were unchanged.

Volume Toppers…

IDFC was among the most traded counter on the bourses. Others like, RNRL, RPL, JP Associates, Chambal Fertilizer, Satyam, Idea, Renuka Sugar, RPower and ICICI Bank were among the stocks in demand in the liquid universe.

Shares of IDFC declined by over 14% to Rs93.4 after the company may need about US$250mn in equity capital, Morgan Stanley analysts said. A central bank requirement for finance firms to increase capital to 15% of assets, from 10%, will force IDFC to sell stock, the US brokerage added.

Rating companies have asked IDFC to maintain its leverage ratio at five times its capital if it wants to keep its triple A credit rating, Morgan Stanley said. IDFC has reported a 20% increase in net profit to Rs2.17bn in the three months ended June 30, from Rs1.81bn a year earlier.

IDFC's need to raise Tier-I capital in the current year, together with lower earnings growth estimates will cap near-term upside on the stock price, says another broking firm. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs112 and a low of Rs92 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

SCI ended flat at Rs207. The board of directors of the company at its meeting held on May 20, 2008 considered the proposal to issue 1 bonus share for every 2 equity shares held and decided to recommend the proposal to the administrative Ministry i.e. Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways for their approval in terms of the Articles of Association of the Company.

Further the company has said that, the Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways (MoSRTH) approved the proposal for issuance of 1 bonus equity share having nominal value of Rs10/ each for every 2 equity share held by the shareholders. Therefore, the Board may discuss the proposal at its meeting to be held on July 26, 2008. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs216 and a low of Rs203 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

3i Infotech gained by 1.6% to Rs95 after the company announced that it signed an agreement with Bank of India, to implement AMLOCK(TM), the company's award winning Anti Money Laundering (AML) software.

As part of this agreement, the company would undertake complete system integration, from procurement and installation of hardware including Storage, Database, Middleware, and Report Writer. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs99 and a low of Rs92 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.

Dr Reddys Labs advanced by 2% to Rs675 after the company posted a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent of Rs919.70mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 as compared to Rs1872.30mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.

Total Income increased from Rs12624.90mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 to Rs15476.10mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs695 and a low of Rs650 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on NSE.

SAIL gained by 3% to Rs125 after the company posted a net profit of Rs18.351bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 as compared to Rs15.251bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2007. Total Income increased from Rs83.464bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 to Rs114.219bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008.

The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs128 and a low of Rs121 and recorded volumes of over 50,00,000 shares on NSE.

Kohinoor Foods surged by over 4.5% to Rs107 after the company announced that it is planning to put up own spices manufacturing unit,synergic to its operational Indian food domain. The company is eyeing the chilled foods business and intends to augment its current manufacturing facility by bringing in chilled foods processing capabilities.

KFL's overseas arms in the US and UK - aiming to garner leadership status in their respective countries in the Indian foods business; in UK, Kohinoor has become 4th most popular Indian food brand. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs117 and a low of Rs100 and recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.

Tata Motors is set to roll out pilot batch of 25 Nanos by September 15, 2008. (ET)
Reliance Communications has launched blackberry smartphone in the Indian market. (ET)
ONGC Videsh Ltd, subsidiary of ONGC is gearing to bid for blocks in Eucador jointly with Petro Eucador. (ET)
Tech Mahindra bags US$700mn order from BT for transformation of its IT systems. (ET)
Cipla India may launch copycat version of 20 patented drugs of leading global drug makers.
GVK Power is in talks with three PE players to offload 25% stake in its power business. (Mint)
Idea Cellular offers to surrender two licenses to gain DoT nod for its proposed merger with Spice Communications. (Mint)
Tata Group and Reliance Industries have applied for allocation of captive coal blocks for converting coal into liqui8d fuels. (DNA)
Omaxe Ltd to raise funds for its ambitious affordable housing project from PE players. (DNA)
BSNL defers opening of US$6bn GSM tender to August 30 from July 16. (DNA)
Tata Power to pick up 26% stake in Government of Bhutan promoted 114MW Hydro electric power projects. (BS)
Satyam Computer Services plans to set up IT and BPO development centres in Mexico and Chile. (BS)
Reliance Communications total subscriber base has touched the 50mn mark. (BS)
Bombay High Court will hear the KG Basin gas dispute between Reliance Industries and RNRL today. (ET)
Canara Bank plans to launch a Rs5bn venture capital fund. (BS)
Air India plans to cut tariffs on international routes. (ET)
LIC Housing Finance plans to enter venture funding and plans to start a Rs5bn real estate fund by the end of current fiscal. (BS)
Voltas to raise prices of air conditioners to offset rising input costs. (BS)
Petronet LNG hopes to close a long-term LNG contract soon following its board's in-principle nod. (BL)
IVRCL Infrastructure has bagged five orders worth Rs3.5bn. (ET)
Bank of Baroda plans to open 10 new overseas branches. (ET)
Max Group is looking to list three of its subsidiaries Max India, Max New York Life and Max Healthcare. (ET)
UCO Bank may raise Rs3.25bn through preference allotment of equity shares. (ET)
Dr Reddy to buy out stake of ICICI ventures and Citigroup Venture Capital for US$18mn in Perlecan. (ET)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals may acquire a medium to large scale specialty pharmaceutical company in US. (BS)
Garware Offshore has taken delivery of its eighth vessel "MV Poorna", a AHTSV at Singapore. (FE)
Bilcare along with US company MeadWestaco Corporation has acquired International Labs, an American pharmaceutical packaging firm. (BS)
Global Vectra plans to start helicopter shuttle services in Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata. (ET)
Elder Pharmaceuticals has signed an agreement with California based Cymbiotics to market the latter's six patented drugs in India. (ET)
Max Healthcare set to add four more hospitals tp its network by 2010. (BL)
Max India restructures its JV with New York Life to allow the latter to acquire additional 24% stake at 10% discount to fair market price. (BL)
Kirloskar Pneumatic Co to set up roadrailer manufacturing plant at Nashik. (FE)
Precision Automation and Robotics India bagged a Chrysler deal to build the US car maker's axle assembly plant. (FE)

Economic Front Page

TRAI has questioned all telecom operators with respect to high SMS tariffs. (ET)
TRAI has told DoT to hike entry fee for an all India telecom license, if it wants to impose a one time spectrum fee on all GSM operators who hold radio frequencies above 6.2MHz. (ET)
The government is planning to simplify procedure for warrants issue MNCs on auto FDI route by allowing them to bypass FIPB approval. (ET)
The finance ministry has decided to form a panel to suggest possible changes in the proposed Insurance bill. (ET)
National Housing Bank is planning to buy housing loans from banks and housing finance companies. (ET)
Government has decided to ban all companies from Dubai, China, Hong Kong and Pakistan from investing in port infrastructure projects in the country. (ET)

US Market posts slight losses

 Indices register little losses after a couple of pharmaceutical companies come under scanner

US market registered little losses today, Monday, 21 July, 2008 after crude prices climbed up again and Banc of America announced a substantial drop in its profits but however topping Wall Street's estimates. Two pharmaceutical companies postponing their earning report till market closes also took a bit of toll on the market sentiment. Seven out of ten sectors ended in the red today led by consumer discretionary. Energy sector was one of the top gainers.

After a modest climb, The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a loss of 29.23 points at 11,467.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 3.25 points at 2,279.53. S&P 500 finished lower by 0.68 points at 1,260.

Twenty-one out of thirty Dow stocks ended in the red today led by Merck and American Express.

On the economic front, June leading indicators fell 0.1%, which was in-line with expectations. The report had a limited impact on the stock market.

Bank of America reported a 43% drop in earnings per share to $0.72. However, the result easily topped Wall Street's forecast due to a lower-than-expected write-down of $1.2 billion. The stock closed higher by 4%.

Merck along with Schering-Plough delayed releasing their second-quarter earnings until after the market's close as Norwegian researchers said the study found a cholesterol drug, Vytorin, marketed by the two companies to be ineffective in curtailing a cardiac condition.

The healthcare sector recently took a sharp slip into negative ground after momentarily spiking upward into the green. The drop coincides with negative news related to two marquee names in the pharmaceutical industry.

Barring HDFC Bank, Rediff.com and Patni Computers, all other Indian ADRs ended in the red today. Rediff.com was the largest gainer with the ADR soaring more than 4%.

Crude oil prices rose for the first time in five sessions today. Price spurred up as a tropical storm, Dolly, entered the Gulf of Mexico, and Iran, the world's fourth-biggest producer, resisted demands to suspend nuclear research. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for August delivery closed at $131.04 /barrel (higher by $2.16/barrel or 1.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first increase in five days.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Texas coastline from Brownsville to Port O'Connor at morning time today by the Miami-based hurricane center. Dolly moved over the Yucatan Peninsula earlier today. Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil company, produces about 1.07 million barrels of oil a day in the Bay of Campeche, which is south of the projected track of the storm. The northern Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 25% of U.S. oil production.

Trading was relatively light, with volume on the New York Stock Exchange passing 1.2 billion, and advancing stocks outran those declining nearly 2 to 1. On the Nasdaq, more than 753 million shares traded, and advancers beat decliners 5 to 4.

For tomorrow, Wachovia Bank, UPS, United Health, Caterpillar and DuPont are some of the more widely-held companies scheduled to announce their latest quarterly results Tuesday morning. There is no market moving economic data due tomorrow. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is scheduled to speak about the U.S. economy and markets before the opening bell.

Today's Pick - Indian Bank

We recommend a buy in Indian Bank from a medium-term perspective. From the charts of Indian Bank we observe that it had been on an intermediate-term down trend from its February high of Rs 256 till it recorded its 52-week low of Rs 78 on July 16.

The area around Rs 78 is a key support level and the stock reversed direction from here.

This reversal was supported by positive divergence in the daily relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence.

On July 21, the stock jumped up 13 per cent breaking through its intermediate-term down trendline as well as the 21-day moving average.

The stock has gained 25 per cent over the past two trading sessions with heavy volume support.

The daily RSI is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and the weekly RSI has recovered from the oversold region.

We are bullish on the stock in the medium-term horizon. We expect the stock to move up until it hits our price target of Rs 124 in the medium-term.

Traders with medium-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 89.

via BL

Property prices down

Housing Development Infrastructure on Monday said countries real estate sector is going to witness a 20-25 per cent price fall but the financial capital would be insulated and would see a 10-15 per cent correction.

"There is still supply constraint in Mumbai. Hence, the fall will be in the range of 10-15 per cent, if there is further reduction in demand. But, the remaining part of the country is like to see a 20-25 per cent correction," HDIL's Managing Director Sarang Wadhawan told reporters on the sidelines of the company's Annual General Meeting here.

Wadhawan said that since the industry is cyclic in nature, the current phase of demand recession may be there for two years and then the boom period starts to stay for another five years or vice versa.

The company recorded over 56 per cent rise in net profit for the quarter ended June 30 at Rs 317.93 crore as against Rs 202.68 crore in the corresponding quarter previous fiscal.

It would not be impacted much by the slowdown in realty sector as its operations is mainly confined into the Mumbai metropolitan area.

"The company is confident of executing all the projects on time and continues to register positive growth in the remaining part of the fiscal," Wadhawan said.

HDIL's turnover increased by 28.6 per cent during the first quarter of the current fiscal at Rs 570 crore over the same quarter last fiscal.

The company, he said, is likely to develop projects on 10-12 million square feet area in the city including the Mumbai Airport Slum Rehabilitation Project (MASRP) and is set to spread it wings to Hyderabad and Kochi.

Wadhawan said the first phase of the MASRP has already been kicked off and would be completed in the next one and a half year-two year time. The company has started construction on around 15 mn sq feet of area for rehabilitating around 20,000 families in the first phase.

HDIL also plans to set up a multi-product SEZ at Virar in Thane district.

"We have acquired 2,300 acre of land and are in the process of acquiring additional 200 acre. After that, we will approach to the Government for approval," Wadhwan said.

Bullion metals register gains

 Higher crude price and weak dollar puts some shine back on precious metals

Higher crude prices led to higher bullion metal prices today, Monday, 21 July, 2008. Weakness in the US dollar also led to higher bullion metal prices today. Going economic concerns about the current health of the US economy had been increasing the metal's demand as a safe asset against the rising inflation in recent times. Silver prices also rose for the day.

Comex Gold for August delivery rose $5.7 (0.6%) to close at $963.7 ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose to a high of $966.5 during intra day trading. Last week, it ended marginally lower by $2.6. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped since then.

This year, gold prices have gained 15% till date against a 5.5% drop for the dollar against the euro. Gold prices ended June, 2008 with a gain of 4.1%. The yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. In May, it ended with a gain of higher by $22.5 (2.5%). Before May, for April, prices closed lower by 6.3%.

For first quarter prices gained 10.7%. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%. But in March, prices succumbed and fell by 5.5%.

Today, Comex silver futures for September delivery rose 23 cents (1.2%) to $18.43 an ounce. Silver has gained 25% in 2008 till date. For the second quarter, it gained a paltry 1.4%.

Silver prices ended the month of May 2008 with a gain of 2.7%. For April, it closed lower by 5.5%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%. For March, it ended lower by 13%. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies.

At the currency markets on Monday, the U.S. dollar slipped after getting some support earlier on better-than-expected results from Bank of America. The banking giant reported a 41% profit fall for the second quarter but still beat Wall Street earnings estimates. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was down 0.1% at 72.069.

In the crude market on Monday, crude futures rose for the first time in five sessions, rebounding from last week's biggest weekly losses. Prices rose after multilateral talks over Iran's controversial nuclear program didn't yield progress. Cruse also crept higher as Tropical Storm Dolly headed toward the western Gulf of Mexico. Crude for August delivery closed up $2.16 (1.7%) at $131.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials have led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. Gold and oil has climbed 42% and 82% since the past one year.

During last week of June, Federal Reserve yesterday sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the upside risks to inflation have increased. Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%. Since last September, Fed has axed interest rates seven times and brought it down to 2%. On the other hand, after keeping interest rates unchanged at 4% since June, 2007, ECB hiked the same to 4.25% last month.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed higher by Rs 95 (0.72%) at Rs 13,305 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,366 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 13,227 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 266 (1.04%) higher at Rs 25,700/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 25,515/kg and rose to a high of Rs 25,826/Kg during the day's trading.

Crude rises for first time in five sessions

 Prices rise on Iran's threats and as storm Dolly comes near the Gulf

Crude oil prices rose for the first time in five sessions today, Monday, 21 July, 2008. Price spurred up as a tropical storm, Dolly, entered the Gulf of Mexico, and Iran, the world's fourth-biggest producer, resisted demands to suspend nuclear research. Last week crude had coughed up almost $16.5 in four sessions. Prices had plunged once again on economic worries surrounding the US economy.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for August delivery closed at $131.04 /barrel (higher by $2.16/barrel or 1.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first increase in five days. Last week, prices coughed up $16.5 (11.2%). It's now 11% lower than the $147.27 record high hit last Thursday.

Crude prices gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. It ended June 2008 higher by 9.9%. Prices are 74% higher than a year ago. For the year, crude is up by 38.7% till date.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Texas coastline from Brownsville to Port O'Connor at morning time today by the Miami-based hurricane center. Dolly moved over the Yucatan Peninsula earlier today. Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil company, produces about 1.07 million barrels of oil a day in the Bay of Campeche, which is south of the projected track of the storm. The northern Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 25% of U.S. oil production.

On the other hand, Iran snubbed Western efforts to get it to suspend nuclear enrichment at talks in Geneva on 19 July setting the stage for new sanctions if the Middle East's second-largest oil producer doesn't respond to an existing proposal within two weeks.

At the currency markets on Monday, the U.S. dollar slipped after getting some support earlier on better-than-expected results from Bank of America. The banking giant reported a 41% profit fall for the second quarter but still beat Wall Street earnings estimates. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was down 0.1% at 72.069.

In its monthly report issued last week, OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day. Earlier this month, the Energy Information Administration projected that U.S. petroleum consumption will shrink by 400,000 barrels a day in 2008, 38% more than EIA's June projection of a decline of 290,000 barrels.

Natural gas in New York declined amid an outlook supplies are ample at the height of the U.S. cooling season and the path of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico will miss production areas. Natural gas for August delivery fell 6 cents (0.6%) to settle at $10.51 per million British thermal units.

At the MCX, crude oil for July delivery closed at Rs 5,599/barrel, higher by Rs 67 (1.21%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for July delivery closed at Rs 453.3/mmbtu, lower by Rs 3.6/mmbtu (0.8%).

RCom July 2008 futures at premium

 Turnover drops

Nifty July 2008 futures were at 4164, at a premium of 4.50 points as compared to spot closing of 4159.50. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 43,942.21 crore, which was lower than Rs 52,794.98 crore on Friday, 18 July 2008.

Reliance Communications (RCom) July 2008 futures were at premium at 450.10 compared to the spot closing of 446.50.

Reliance Petroleum July 2008 futures were near spot price at 154.75 compared to the spot closing of 154.40.

NTPC July 2008 futures were at discount at 179.55 compared to the spot closing of 181.50.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 67.25 points or 1.64% at 4159.50.

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 21 2008

 Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
21/7/2008 532919 ALLIED COMP NANDIT VIPUL RAJA S 100000 19.00
21/7/2008 590059 BIHAR TUBES ELARA INDIA OPPORTUNITIES FUND LTD B 50000 159.97
21/7/2008 590059 BIHAR TUBES SECUROCROP SECURITIES INDIA P B 125555 159.96
21/7/2008 590059 BIHAR TUBES GEOMATRIX HK LTD AC DUMAURITIUS CAPITAL LTD S 150000 160.00
21/7/2008 523890 DS KULKARNI CHARLEMAGNE CAPITAL IOM LTD B 424294 90.15
21/7/2008 523890 DS KULKARNI MAGNA GLOBAL EMERGING MKTS FUND S 424294 90.15
21/7/2008 500132 EMPEE SUG CH EMPEE HOLDINGS LTD B 326143 8.67
21/7/2008 500132 EMPEE SUG CH EMPEE DISTILLERIES LIMITED S 285041 8.66
21/7/2008 532876 EVERONN SYS BENOY DEVELOPERS PRIVATE LTD B 100000 427.00
21/7/2008 532876 EVERONN SYS ASHOKKUMAR RUIA S 103250 426.89
21/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN H.K. STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD S 96850 124.64
21/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI S 44000 21.00
21/7/2008 500151 GTC INDUSTRI L AND T FINANCE LIMITED S 105000 118.35
21/7/2008 524330 JAYANT AGRO SHASHIKANT A PATEL S 150000 51.75
21/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD B 96851 20.95
21/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD S 87602 20.64
21/7/2008 512559 KOHINORFOODS SUNSTAR OVERSEAS LTD. B 941000 117.34
21/7/2008 512559 KOHINORFOODS DEUTSCHE BANK AG LONDON CB AC S 900000 117.45
21/7/2008 532387 PRITISHN COM ARTINVEST INDIA PVT. LTD. B 74564 33.25
21/7/2008 532387 PRITISHN COM GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 79786 33.30
21/7/2008 506618 PUNJAB CHEM DHANLAXMI COTEX LTD B 50000 235.47
21/7/2008 506618 PUNJAB CHEM SHRIPAL SHARES AND SECURITIES LIMITED S 25115 235.34
21/7/2008 506618 PUNJAB CHEM JITENDRA MEHTA S 25000 235.00
21/7/2008 500355 RALLI INDIA FIDELITY TRUSTEE COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED AC FIDELITY EQUITY FUND B 200000 407.00
21/7/2008 500355 RALLI INDIA PRUDENTIAL I.C.I.C.I. MF TRUST LTD DISCOVERY FUND S 200000 407.00
21/7/2008 513583 SBT INTERN KAPIL PURI B 150000 13.50
21/7/2008 526049 SHRILAKSHMI PRARTHANA TARUNKUMAR BRAHMBHATT S 136000 90.36
21/7/2008 524129 VINYL CHEM STANDARD SEC AND INVST INTER LTD B 154725 11.13
21/7/2008 524129 VINYL CHEM STANDARD SEC AND INVST INTER LTD S 143725 10.83
21/7/2008 507410 WALCHAND IN OLSSON HOLDINGS INC S 174500 255.02

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 21 2008

 Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,94990,116.53,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,FIN BRAINS SECURITIES (INDIA) LTD.,BUY,93271,117.39,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,INNOVATE SECURITIES PVT LTD.,BUY,990,118.25,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,289310,118.73,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,BUY,142557,107.38,-
21-JUL-2008,HINDDORROL,Hindustan Dorr-Oliver Ltd,KARAN MEHTA,BUY,200000,81.88,-
21-JUL-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,201639,38.21,-
21-JUL-2008,MAXWELL,Maxwell Industries Ltd.,KAPIL JAYKUMAR PATHARE,BUY,600000,14.35,-
21-JUL-2008,NICCO,Nicco Corporation Limited,KARAN MEHTA,BUY,520000,13.00,-
21-JUL-2008,PUNJABCHEM,Punj Chem & Crop Prot Ltd,DHANLAXMI COTEX LTD.,BUY,50000,235.20,-
21-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,143208,136.07,-
21-JUL-2008,SB&TINTL,SB&T International Ltd,PURI KAPIL,BUY,150000,13.50,-
21-JUL-2008,VINYLINDIA,Vinyl Chemicals (India) L,STANDARD SECURITIES & INVESTMENT INTERMEDIATES LIMITED,BUY,148785,11.11,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,94990,117.10,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,FIN BRAINS SECURITIES (INDIA) LTD.,SELL,93271,117.54,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,INNOVATE SECURITIES PVT LTD.,SELL,100000,106.25,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,289310,119.04,-
21-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,SELL,142557,124.11,-
21-JUL-2008,GTCIND,GTC Industries Ltd,L&T FINANCE LIMITED,SELL,101747,119.68,-
21-JUL-2008,HINDDORROL,Hindustan Dorr-Oliver Ltd,ANJANA PROJECTS LTD,SELL,200000,81.88,-
21-JUL-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,KAMALABEN A. THAKKAR,SELL,125000,38.34,-
21-JUL-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,201639,38.22,-
21-JUL-2008,MAXWELL,Maxwell Industries Ltd.,PRASHANT JAIPAL REDDY,SELL,600000,14.35,-
21-JUL-2008,NICCO,Nicco Corporation Limited,ANJANA PROJECTS LTD,SELL,520000,13.00,-
21-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,150908,136.26,-
21-JUL-2008,VINYLINDIA,Vinyl Chemicals (India) L,STANDARD SECURITIES & INVESTMENT INTERMEDIATES LIMITED,SELL,148785,11.39,-

Post Market Commentary - July 21 2008

The domestic market ended the day in positive territory after showing a little volatility during trading session. Investors were taking calculative steps during the session due to political worries, as there will be vote of confidence in parliament tomorrow, which will decide UPA's continuation as a government. Indian market opened higher on the back of positive cues from the Asian markets but pared some of its gains soon after the firm start and later gathered the momentum to close with good gains due to selective buying in key stocks gathered the momentum during final trading hours, which led the market to close in green. The BSE Sensex ended above 13,800 level and NSE Nifty closed above 4,100 mark. From the sectoral front, the Bank and Pharma indices closed with a gain of more than 3% after. Along with this Reality, Metal and Oil & Gas stocks also witnessed buying in these baskets. However, Capital Goods and Consumer Durables stocks were major sufferers of negative sentiment. The market breadth was negative as 1169 stocks closed in green while 1362 stocks closed in red and 85 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 214.64 points at 13,850.04 and NSE Nifty ended up by 67.25 points at 4,159.50. The BSE Mid Caps closed with gains of 17.60 points at 5,256.99 while Small Cap ended with loss of 17.91 points 6,437.98. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 13,878.88 and intraday low of 13,581.19.

Gainers from the BSE are Cipla Ltd (5.20%), Ranbaxy Lab (4.74%), NTPC Ltd (4.70%), DLF Ltd (8.44%), ICICI Bank Ltd (4.29%), Maruti Suzuki (3.92%), HUL (3.76%), JP Associates (3.74%), SBI (3.67%) and Reliance Com Ltd (2.62%).

Lossers from the BSE are Satyam Computer (4.14%), Ambuja cement (2.17%), BHEL (1.56%), L&T Ltd (1.26%) and Bharti Airtel (0.44%).

The BSE Banking index closed higher by 239.82 points at 6,428.71. Major gainers are Bank of Baroda (6.95%), Union Bank (6.16%), Bank of India (6.11%), Indian Overseas Bank (5.95%), HDFC Bank Ltd (4.78%), Punjab Natioanl Bank (4.57%), and ICICI Bank Ltd (4.29%).

The BSE Pharma index gained 120.88 points to close at 4,111.73. Major gainers are Sun Pharma (5.30%), Cipla Ltd (5.20%), Ranbaxy Lab (4.74%), Glenmark Pharma (3.88%), Dishman Pharma (3.79%) and Orchid Chem (3.14%).

The BSE Reality index ended up by 114.04 points at 4,784.28. As Housing Development (7.80%), Indiabull Real (5.24%), Anant Raj (4.78%), Unitech Ltd (2.28%), Purvankara (1.49%), DLF Ltd (1.39%), and Ansal Infra (1.23%) closed in positive territory.

The Metal index closed up by 97.85 points at 11,766.24. Gainers are Nalco (8.27%), Steel Authority (2.36%), Sterlite In (1.31%), Tata Steel (0.99%), Jindal Stain (0.70%), and Jindal Steel (0.50%).

The Oil & Gas index ended up by 77.12 points at 9,309.16. As Reliance (1.92%), ONGC (1.34%) and Reliance Petroleum (0.39%) closed in positive territory.

The BSE Capital Goods index lost 83.65 points to close at 11,062.86. Major lossers are Kirloskar br (7.69%), Bharat Elect (2.53%), Alstom proje (2.41%), Crompton Greaves (1.86%), Jyoti Struct (1.79%) and BHEL (1.56%).

Sensex gains on positive global cues

The market attracted considerable buying interest for the third session in a row on firm global cues and gained nearly 200 points in early trades. Sensex resumed with a huge positive gap of 147 points at 13,782 and the market was range-bound with a positive bias, but the index lost some ground in the mid-noon trades to touch the day's low of 13,581, down 54 points from yesterday's close. The market however regained its lost momentum towards the final hour of the session on hectic upsurge in banking, heavyweight and HC stocks, but profit booking at close led Sensex shed its gains and end the session at 13,850, up 215 points. The Nifty gained 67 points to close at 4,160.

The breadth of the market was negative. Of the 2,615 stocks traded on the BSE 1,368 stocks declined, 1,163 stocks advanced and 84 stocks ended unchanged. Among sectoral indices, the BSE Bankex notched up 3.88% at 6,428.71 followed by the BSE HC index (up 3.03% at 4,111.73), while the BSE Realty index and the BSE Auto index were up 1-2%.

Most of the index heavyweights received considerable buying interest. Cipla soared 5.20% at Rs226.45, HDFC Bank rose 4.78% at Rs1,082.95, Ranbaxy Laboratories was up 4.74% at Rs458.20, National Thermal Power Corporation gained 4.70% at Rs181.45 and ICICI Bank moved up 4.29% at Rs644.10. Among the other major gainers Maruti Suzuki India shot up by 3.92% at Rs648.20, Hindustan Unilever jumped 3.76% at Rs227.95, Jaiprakash Associates added 3.74% at Rs166.55, State Bank of India gained 3.67% at Rs1,347.45, Reliance Communications moved up by 2.62% at Rs446.60 and Tata Consultancy Services was up 2.33% at Rs813.45. However, Satyam Computer Services slipped 4.14% at Rs367.10 and Ambuja Cement fell 2.17% at Rs81 while Bharat Heavy Electrical Ltd, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors inched marginally lower.

Banking stocks notched up significant gains during the day. Bank of Baroda surged 6.95% at Rs230.95, UBI scaled up 6.16% at Rs122.30, Bank of India rose 6.11% at Rs272.45, Indian Overseas Bank jumped 5.95% at Rs83.75, HDFC Bank added 4.78% at Rs1,082.95, Punjab National Bank gained 4.57% at Rs460.60 and Oriental Bank was up 3.06% at Rs139.65.

Over 1.33 crore IDFC shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (0.88 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (0.64 crore shares), IFCI (0.61 crore shares) and First Winner Industries (0.59 crore shares).

Value wise, Reliance Capital registered a turnover of Rs245 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Industries (Rs204 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs196 crore), Reliance Communications (Rs139 crore) and IDFC (Rs128 crore).

Market shrugs off political uncertainty

The market notched decent gains amid intra-day volatility, extending its winning streak to third straight trading session ahead of the government's trust vote in parliament to be held on Tuesday, 22 July 2008. A strong rally in Asian stocks lifted the investor sentiment. Healthcare pivotals were in demand. Banking stocks notched up modest gains even as capital goods shares declined.

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh today, 21 July 2008, morning moved the confidence motion in Lok Sabha. Earlier, Dr Singh asserted that his government will win the vote of confidence

The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 214.64 points or 1.57% at 13,850.04. At day's high of 13,878.88, the index gained 243.48 points in the mid-afternoon trade. The index shed 54.21 points at the day's low of 13,581.19, it hit in the early trade.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty advanced 67.25 points or 1.64% at 4159.50. Nifty July 2008 futures were at 4164, at a premium of 4.5 points as compared to spot closing.

As per provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours, foreign funds today, 21 July 2008, sold shares worth a net Rs 62.22 crore. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 230.96 crore.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.34% at 5,256.99, while the BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.28% at 6,437.98. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was weak on BSE with 1169 shares advancing as compared to 1362 that declined. 85 remained unchanged.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4387 crore as against Rs 5,330.45 on Friday, 18 July 2008. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 43942.21 crore, which was lower than Rs 52794.98 crore on Friday, 18 July 2008.

Sensex has risen 1274.24 points or 10.1% in last three trading sessions from its close of 12575.80 on 16 July 2008. Sensex is down 6436.95 points or 31.72% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 7356.73 points or 34.69% away from its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

Coming back to today's trade, the top gainers from the Sensex were Cipla (up 5.20% at Rs 226.45), HDFC Bank (up 4.78% at Rs 1082.95), Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 4.74% at Rs 458.20), NTPC (up 4.70% at Rs 181.45), and Maruti Suzuki (up 3.92% at Rs 648.20).

Top Sensex losers were, Satyam Computer (down 4.14% at Rs 367.10), Ambuja Cements (down 2.17% at Rs 81), Bharat Heavy Electricals (down 1.56% at Rs 1506.45), Larsen & Toubro (down 1.26% at Rs 2513.05), Bharti Airtel (down 0.44% at Rs 798.45).

India's second largest listed telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communication rose 2.62% to Rs 446.60, after it called off tie-up talks with South Africa's MTN Group, Africa's biggest mobile phone group, citing legal issues.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 1.92% to Rs 2,153.30.

India's second largest software exporter by sales Infosys Techologies rose 0.88% to Rs 1,561.80.

Banking shares were in demand. Bank of Baroda (up 6.95% at Rs 230.95), Union Bank of India (up 6.16% at Rs 122.30), Punjab National Bank (up 4.57% at Rs 460.60), State Bank of India (down 3.67% at Rs 1,347.45), and Axis Bank (up 1.57% at Rs 697.60), rose. The BSE Bankex outperformed the Sensex, rising 3.88% at 6,428.71.

India's largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank rose 4.29% to Rs 644.10.

Capital goods shares declined. Kirloskar Brothers (down 7.69% at Rs 154.85), Bharat Electricals (donw 2.53% at Rs 1,025.80), Cromton Greaves (down 1.86% at Rs 224.50), and Thermax (down 1.01% at Rs 382.70), declined. The BSE Capital Goods index underperformed the Sensex, falling 0.75% to 11,062.86.

Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) slumped 14.81% to Rs 93.45 on a huge volume of 1.33 crore shares on BSE. The stock slumped on concerns it may have to raise additional capital of $250 millionl. A central bank requirement for finance firms to increase capital to 15% of assets, from 10%, will force IDFC to sell stock, Morgan Stanley said in a note. As per reports, ratings companies have asked IDFC to maintain its leverage ratio at five times its capital if it wants to keep its triple A credit rating.

Smart cards maker Bartronics India spurted 9.95% to Rs 171.90 after posting 220.37% surge in net profit to Rs 15.27 crore on 165.71% increase in total income to Rs 679.32 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Mortgage lender LIC Housing Finance soared 8.61% to Rs 257.35 after it reported 72.74% growth in net profit to Rs 104.66 crore on 34.68% rise in total income to Rs 622.01 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Farm vehicles maker Punjab Tractors advanced 10.98% to Rs 221.85 after posting 580% surge in net profit to Rs 22.44 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.

Reliance Capital clocked the highest turnover of Rs 245.94 crore on BSE. Reliance Industries (Rs 205.07 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 196.58 crore), Reliance Communication (Rs 139.72 crore), and IDFC (Rs 128.12 crore), were the other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.

IDFC reported a highest volume of 1.33 crore shares on BSE. Reliance natural Resources (88.94 lakh shares), Reliance Petroleum (64.81 lakh shares), IFCI (61.55 lakh shares), and First Winner Industries (59.87 lakh shares), were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.

European markets, which opened lower, turned positive as the session proceeded. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were up by between 0.17% to 0.89%.

Asian stocks rose sharply on Monday, 21 July 2008, as concerns about the global impact of a weak US financial sector eased after Citigroup, the largest US bank on Friday, 18 July 2008, reported a second-quarter loss of $2.5 billion, which was smaller than expected. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were 2.51% to 3.97%. Markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.

US stocks finished mixed on Friday, 18 July 2008. Favorable results from No. 1 US bank Citigroup and technology leader IBM drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher, but the Nasdaq fell on disappointing results from tech icons Google and Microsoft. The Dow closed up 49.91 points, or 0.44%, at 11,496.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.34 points, or 0.03%, at 1,260.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 29.52 points, or 1.28%, at 2,282.78.

Crude prices edged up on Monday, 21 July 2008 but remained below $130 a barrel as talks between world powers and nuclear ambitious Iran, the fourth largest oil exporter, proved inconclusive.

The government is seeking a vote of confidence in parliament in a special two-day session of the parliament starting today after it was reduced to minority following withdrawal of support of Left parties early this month. Voting will take place tomorrow.

Media reports suggest that the government has wafer-thin edge of winning the trust vote. If the government wins the confidence vote it will continue to be in power. If it the government loses the trust vote, the president could ask the prime minister to continue in power as a caretaker government. The Election Commission of India will then fix a date and mid-term polls will be held.

Another possibility in case the government loses the trust vote is that the opposition may try to form an interim government before the scheduled May 2009 election. However, this is an unlikely scenario given that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has said it would prefer elections if the government falls

A section of the market reckons that the government may push forward economic reforms if it survives the vote of confidence in parliament. There has been a virtual halt in reforms process in the last four years due to strong opposition to reforms from Left parties. Left parities had stalled privatisation of state-run firms, pension reforms, higher foreign limits in insurance and more liberal norms for foreign bank

Today's Pick - NTPC

We recommend a buy in National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) from a short-term perspective. From the charts of NTPC, we note that it had been on a medium-term downtrend from its early May 2008 peak of Rs 203 to its late June trough of Rs 148. However, the stock found support at around Rs 150 (significant long-term support level) and has been on a short-term uptrend since early July.

On July 9, the stock conclusively penetrated the medium-term down trendline and its 21-day moving average by gaining 4 per cent. The stock decisively breached the 50-day moving average by jumping up by 5 per cent, accompanied with good volume on July 18.

The daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered in to the bullish zone and the weekly RSI is rising in the neutral region. The daily moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) is on the verge of entering in to the positive territory. Our short-term forecast for the stock is bullish.

We anticipate the stock's current up move to continue until it hits our price target of Rs 195 in the approaching trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 164.

via BL

Market valuation eroded

For every rupee of earnings managed by BSE Sensex companies, investors are today willing to pay only half of what they paid in January 2008.

The market meltdown of 2008 has seen the Sensex value fall by 35 per cent till date, but it has halved the price-to-earnings multiple (PE multiple) for companies in the bellwether index.

The PE multiple of the Sensex, which was at a rich 28 times (based on historic 12-month earnings) at 21,000 levels, has plunged to a staid 14 times now, Bloomberg data shows. The lower valuation indicates that investors now expect Sensex companies to grow at only half the rate that they factored in, in January.

World over, investors value companies based on potential growth and the PE multiple is one of the widely used tools to evaluate how expensive or cheap stocks are, relative to their growth prospects.
Worst in a decade

The erosion in Sensex PE multiple in this meltdown may be the worst in a decade, even including the dotcom crash of 2001.

Banking and realty companies have been worst hit, with SBI seeing its PE multiple fall from 20 times to just 6, while DLF has seen its PE plunge from 90 times to 8 times.

Reliance Industries, Jaiprakash Associates, SBI, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure (formerly Reliance Energy) and DLF, are among companies that have seen their PE multiples trimmed to half their January level.

Many of these companies have seen their valuation fall even as they managed a sharp ramp-up in their earnings for 2007-08.

DLF (earnings per share grew from Rs 13 to Rs 47 between FY07 and FY08), Bharti Airtel (Rs 21 to Rs 34), HDFC (Rs 69 to Rs 100) are key instances.
'De-rating' stocks

While concerns about rising interest rates have prompted investors to tone down growth expectations from bank and realty companies, worries about the economy slowing down have made them 'de-rate' infrastructure and capital goods stocks.

Companies in the Sensex basket that have managed to escape this bout of de-rating are Infosys, Satyam, Ranbaxy Labs, Cipla and Hindalco, which have more or less held on to their PE multiples.

via BL

Market may bounce back

The markets bounced back sharply in the last two days of the trading week, mainly on account of short-covering in banking stocks, as the US markets rebounded. Realty and energy stocks logged smart gains.

The Nifty hit a fresh calendar low of 3,790 (close to the support level of 3,770 mentioned last week) and then pulled back to higher levels. The buying momentum was so strong that the index zipped past the 4,000-mark to a high of 4,118. The index finally settled with gains of 43 points at 4,092.

The Nifty MACD (moving average convergence divergence) and Stochastic Slow indicate more upside. The index could re-test its recent high of 4,215. If it sustains above this level, one may see the 4,500 level in the medium term.

The index closed above its short-term moving (20-days) average (4,064) after a gap of 41 days. The medium-term (50-days) moving average is 4,492. Going forward, the 3,850 level will be crucial. The Nifty may see a further upside as long as it trades above this level. But a dip below the mark could take the index up to 3,400-3,250.

The Nifty is likely to find support around 3,965-3,930-3,890, while it may face resistance around 4,215-4,255-4,295 this week.

The Sensex moved in a range of 1,170 points - from a low of 12,514, the index rallied to a high of 13,684 and finally ended with gains of 165 points at 13,635.

Among the index stocks, ONGC and Maruti soared 11 per cent each. Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, Reliance Infrastructure and SBI gained 6-8 per cent each. On the other hand, Ranbaxy slumped 18 per cent to Rs 531, and Satyam, Wipro, Tata Steel, Hindalco and Infosys dropped 8-14 per cent each.

Shree Renuka Sugar

The domestic sugar cycle is set to enter a favourable phase for producers, with output expected to decline sharply over the next two years, lending support to sugar prices.

Investors looking to capitalise on this trend can consider buying the stock of Shree Renuka Sugars, a South-based integrated sugar producer.

With sizeable capacities coming on-stream this year, Shree Renuka appears well-placed, among large listed players, to capitalise on a scenario of firming sugar prices amidst dwindling cane supplies.

At the current market price of Rs 113, the stock trades at about 11 times its estimated earnings for 2008-09 (year ending September).

Shree Renuka has used proceeds of earlier equity offers to fund an ambitious expansion in sugar (now at 25,250 tcd), distillery (450 klpd) and power cogeneration (103.5 MW) capacities.

It augments owned capacity with facilities leased from cooperative sugar mills; making for a less capital intensive model.

With the commissioning of a Haldia-based refinery in June, the company also has sugar refining capacities of 4000 tpd under its belt. Units located in Karnataka and Maharashtra allow the company to source cane at competitive prices, unlike Uttar Pradesh-based mills which have to shell out higher state-fixed prices.

After a two-year slump, domestic sugar prices are set to firm up over the next year, on the back of a 20 per cent drop in sugar output in the crushing season commencing October 1 and lower inventories.

Recent policy changes which allow sugar mills to process cane directly into ethanol also allow producers to switch between the two products, based on demand and relative realisations.

Going forward, while rising domestic prices would improve the profit margin on the company's core sugar business, favourable policies on ethanol (for which the company is the leading supplier) and revenues from power, will also bring in sizeable revenues.

Both ethanol and power capacities will be substantially scaled up this year.

Port-based refining facilities, backed by a recent sourcing arrangement with a Brazilian sugar producer, may help the company tap export opportunities in neighbouring Asian and West Asian markets, amidst rising global sugar prices.

Looking ahead, any policy changes to decontrol sugar will be a positive trigger to the stock price.

The key risks to the earnings outlook may arise from any upward revision in output estimates and any policy moves that seek to restrict sugar exports, to quell prices.

Market to remain shaky

MUMBAI: Even as the Congress-led UPA government faces a trust vote on Tuesday, the two-day rally in the stock market appears to suggest that investors are confident about the government's survival.

But the sharp gains in the past couple of sessions have come amid cautious optimism, which was evident many times in the past too, when ruling parties were in trouble.

A look at the Sensex's behaviour ahead of a no-confidence motion in Parliament that different governments faced since 1990 shows that the market did not witness any clear trend (sustained downward or upward movement), as investors mostly preferred to remain on the sidelines till political problems were resolved.

Notwithstanding the 1000-point rally in the Sensex in the past couple of sessions, there is uncertainty if the government will be able to survive the trust vote, say brokers. Besides next week's political developments, the market will also be influenced by many other factors like crude oil prices, inflation and first quarter numbers, they say.

"Friday's upsurge was mostly because of a fall in oil prices. There is also a feeling that the government will survive and so the nuclear deal will go through," said KR Choksey Shares and Securities chairman Kisan Choksey. If oil prices soften further, it would help ease inflationary pressures, as India is a major importer of crude oil, says Mr Choksey.

In April 1999, the then BJP-led coalition government was in trouble as the AIADMK party withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex ended weak on most trading days during the month. It, however, gained sharply by 216 points on April 16, a day before vote of confidence. The Sensex slipped 246 points after the BJP lost the no-confidence motion by a single vote on April 17.

On April 11, 1997, the then prime minister HD Deve Gowda lost the confidence vote after the Congress withdrew support to the United Front government. The market gained on most trading days during the month, before ending with a gain of 35 points, or 1%, at 3,633.7 on the day of the trust vote.

Among other notable occasions of vote of confidence, Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned before the confidence motion was put to vote on May 28, 1996. The BJP then could not prove the majority. The market remained week ahead of the vote of confidence. On November 7, 1990, VP Singh lost the vote of confidence after the BJP withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex recorded some gains ahead of the event, before ending 49 points up, or 3.7%, at 1,381 on the day of the vote.

On Friday, the Sensex climbed 524 points, or 4%, to end at 13,635 while Nifty jumped 145 points, or 3.7%, to close at 4,092, on the back of a sharp fall in oil prices. "Crude is weak below $135 and once it breaches $129 levels the price could fall towards $121 levels. If the government survives the market may move up towards 4200 and 4600 in a short span of time" said Alex Mathew, research head of Geojit Financial Services.

via ET

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 19 2008

 Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,124918,114.54,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,BUY,89338,116.60,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,BUY,195053,113.34,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,H K STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD,BUY,126866,113.22,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,S. J. SECURITIES LIMITED,BUY,100000,112.48,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,SHAH RUPAK KUMUDBHAI,BUY,35168,112.46,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,207285,114.47,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,BUY,171980,114.76,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YES INVESTMENTS VISHAL KISHORE BHATIA,BUY,83700,111.90,-
18-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,BUY,6209227,38.95,-
18-JUL-2008,KALINDEE,Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng,KOTAK INDIA FOCUS FUND,BUY,200000,185.00,-
18-JUL-2008,POLARIS,Polaris Software Lab Ltd,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,BUY,616640,80.44,-
18-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,198427,136.03,-
18-JUL-2008,DCB,Development Credit Bank L,BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE,SELL,943761,51.12,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,124918,114.76,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,SELL,89338,116.45,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,SELL,198053,113.02,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,H K STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,103000,121.25,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,SHAH RUPAK KUMUDBHAI,SELL,111468,112.71,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,207285,114.59,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,SELL,171980,116.09,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YES INVESTMENTS VISHAL KISHORE BHATIA,SELL,95000,115.70,-
18-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,SELL,6209227,38.96,-
18-JUL-2008,KALINDEE,Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng,QUANTUM (M) LIMITED,SELL,291697,185.00,-
18-JUL-2008,LICHSGFIN,LIC Housing Finance Ltd,TCI CYPRUS HOLDING LTD,SELL,936167,236.12,-
18-JUL-2008,POLARIS,Polaris Software Lab Ltd,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,SELL,602640,80.67,-
18-JUL-2008,PRAENG,Prajay Engineers Syndicat,GENERAL ELECTRIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION A/C GENERAL ELECTRIC,SELL,172192,55.70,-
18-JUL-2008,PRIMESECU,Prime Securities Limited,OMEGA FINHOLD PRIVATE LTD.,SELL,137551,37.46,-
18-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,198427,136.09,-

Someone just covered their shorts ;-)

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has sought to suggest that the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) may invest funds in high yielding instruments in order to provide better returns to its over four crore subscribers.

When asked whether there is a case for increasing the EPF rate in view of the rising inflation, he said that the government cannot increase the interest rates on Special Deposit Schemes (SDS), where the bulk of the EPF funds are parked.

"SDS gets eight percent returns. You cannot touch that eight per cent, because that applies to very many instruments also. So, it cannot be looked at in isolation," he said.

The EPFO, however, he added, was welcome to take money and invest it elsewhere, if they can get better returns.

"We have told them (EPFO) two-three years ago that you can withdraw SDS money and invest it elsewhere," he said.

Finance Minister's statement comes after some members of the Central Board of Trustees of EPFO has raised the demand for increasing interest rate on provident fund from 8.5 percent to 12 percent in view of the rising inflation.

EPFO board had earlier rejected the proposal to invest five per cent of its funds in the stock market following opposition from trade unions.

The board at the recent meeting of the trustees on July 5 deferred the decision on revising the interest rates.

With inflation inching towards 12 percent mark, 8.5 percent interest rate fetches negative real returns.

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 18 2008

 Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
18/7/2008 531190 A V COTTEX I PEGASUS STOCKS AND SHARES PVT. LTD. S 97318 13.27
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR B 88992 113.55
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN JITENDRA MEHTA S 100000 112.50
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN H.K.STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD S 253875 114.22
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR S 88992 113.13
18/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI S 50000 21.95
18/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD S 45108 20.03
18/7/2008 530543 MARG LTD FRONTPOINT FINANCIAL SERVICES FUND LP B 155000 148.02
18/7/2008 530543 MARG LTD MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED S 186973 148.00
18/7/2008 532606 PAREKH ALUM MANISH JASWANT MARU B 80865 107.00
18/7/2008 500337 PRIME SECU L CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS MAURITIUS PVT LTD S 1249040 37.00
18/7/2008 500337 PRIME SECU L DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED S 571530 37.19
18/7/2008 502587 RAMA PUL PAP PRITI KRISHNAGOPAL CHANDAK S 51527 17.10
18/7/2008 526365 SHYAM STAR MAHAJAY INVESTMENTS PVT LTD B 75000 175.00
18/7/2008 526365 SHYAM STAR VIPUL DASHRATLAL SHAH S 63955 175.00
18/7/2008 526161 SPENTA INTER MOHANLAL DAGA S 16364 9.47

MTN - RCOM Deal off

The much-touted deal between Anil Ambani group company Reliance Communications (RCom) and South African telecom giant MTN was called off on Friday.

"The two sides were unable to conclude the transaction due to certain regulatory issues," RCom spokesperson said in statement on Friday night.

 

The deal, which was clouded by the bitter dispute between the Ambani siblings, was called off a day after Reliance Industries nominated an arbitrator to resolve the dispute with RCom.

RCom and MTN decided to end the exclusivity agreement three days before its expiry.

Post Session Commentary - July 18 2008

The domestic market continued its rally for the second consecutive day to close on an upbeat note on the back of heavy buying across the counters. The fall in global crude oil prices to $130 a barrel gave a boost to the sentiments in the domestic market. The market opened higher but did not present a good show till the mid session as it was trading almost flat but the market changed its gear soon after that to kept on marching forward on sustained buying across the indices. The BSE Sensex ended above 13,600 level with gain of more than 3.5% and NSE Nifty closed above 4,090 with increase of more than 3.67%. From the sectoral front, the bankex index surged to close with gains of more than 8%. The Capital Goods, Oil and Gas and Realty index also followed the rally to post good buying. However, the IT and Metal index remained out of favor. The market breadth was positive as 1616 stocks closed in green while 980 stocks closed in red and 90 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 523.55 points at 13,635.40 and NSE Nifty ended up by 145.05 points at 4,092.25. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Cap closed up 84.05 points and 68.77 points 5,239.39 and 6,455.89 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 13,684.27 and intraday low of 13,093.34.

Gainers from the BSE are Infra Dev fin 15.54%, ICICI bank 12.05%, Indian bank 10.08%, Essar Ship 9.99%, HDFC 9.47%, Jet Airways 9.37%, Gujarat NRE 9.07%, Yes bank 8.93%.

The BSE Bankex index surged 461.29 points to close at 6,188.89. Major gainers are ICICI Bank 12.05%, Yes bank 8.93%, Axis bank 8.07%, HDFC bank 7.87%, PNB 7.56%, Union bank 6.62% and IOB 5.09%.

The BSE Capital Goods index advanced by 384.50 points to close at 11,146.51. Scrips that gained are Alstom Projects 6.02%, Havell India 5.84%, Bhel 5.35%, Punj Lloyd 5.31%, L&T 4.29%, ABB 3.59% and Areva 2.31%.

The Oil & Gas index closed up by 379.86 points at 9,232.04 as Gail India 5.39%, Reliance industries 4.82%, IOCL 4.79%, ONGC 4.30%, RNRL 3.52% and BPCL 3.37% closed in green.

The BSE Reality index grew by 242.22 points to close at 4,670.24. Gainers are Ansal infra 7.83%, Indiabul Real 7.62%, DLF 6.99%, HDIL 4.99%, Sobh Dev 4.82%, Unitech 4.63%.

The IT index fell by 94.55 points to close at 3,580.65. Losers are Satyam Comp 7.51%, Mphasis 7.33%, HCL Tech 5.85%, Niit Tech 4.30%, Wipro 3.75%, Infosys 2.20% and I-Flex 1.25%.

The Metal index dropped by 28.91 points to close at 11,668.39 as Tata Steel 2.43%, Sterlite inds 2.09%, JSW Steel 1.62%, Sesa Goa 1.38%, Hind Zinc 0.88% and Jindal Stainless 0.41%.

Nifty July 2008 futures above 4,000

 F&O turnover surges

Nifty July 2008 futures were at 4056.70, at a discount of 35.55 points as compared to spot closing of 4092.25. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 52,794.98 crore, which was higher than Rs 46,300.96 crore on Thursday, 17 July 2008.

Satyam Computer Services July 2008 futures were at premium at 385.80 compared to the spot closing of 383.55.

Infosys Technologies July 2008 futures were at premium at 1557 compared to the spot closing of 1547.40.

State Bank of India July 2008 futures were at discount at 1282.85 compared to the spot closing of 1299.65.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 145.05 points or 3.67% at 4092.25.