Pre Session Commentary - March 13 2009

Today domestic markets are likely to open positive as the US markets closed with phenomenal gains and the other Asian markets have also opened with green numbers. The sentiments are strong on the global front as such one could witness similar trend on the domestic front also. There is no specific news to support the market sentiments therefore there would be some room for profit booking that may lead to mild volatility.

On Thursday, the domestic markets opened with a positive gap to catch up with the global markets that had surged on the Tuesday and Wednesday. Phenomenal buying was witnessed across frontline stocks. Though there was little profit booking pressures in the morning session, but the buying strength helped maintain the northward movement. The IIP data for the January month recorded a contraction of 0.5% as against 2% contraction in the month of December. The inflation on the other hand recorded at 2.43% for the week ended Feb 28. Investors were well aware of the IIP contraction and therefore no turbulence was seen during the day's trade. Sectors like Auto, Bankex, Oil & Gas and Metal gained phenomenally by 3.70%, 3.33%, 3.21% and 2.87% respectively. Whereas CD and Teck were the only sectors that conceded losses of 1.30% and 0.09% respectively. During the session we expect the markets to be trading positive.

The BSE Sensex closed high by 183.35 points at 8,343.75 and NSE Nifty gained by 44.30 points at 2,617.45. The BSE Small cap and Mid Cap closed with gains of 10.91 points and 10.59 points at 2,564.40 and 2,877.27 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 8,439.71 and intraday low of 8,274.78.

On Thursday, the US stock markets closed with remarkable gains. The phenomenal surge in the markets was inspired by better than expected retail sales data, renewed buying interest in bellwether General Electric, and more encouraging news from the financial sector. February retail sales declined just 0.1%, which is better than the 0.5% decline that was expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7%. A decline of 0.1% was expected. Meanwhile, January total sales and sales less autos were revised to show an even larger increase. Weekly initial claims climbed 9,000 to 654,000, which was worse than expected. Continuing claims jumped nearly 200,000 to 5.32 million, which was also worse than expected. US light crude oil for April delivery grew by $4.70 to settle at $45.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude oil prices surged ahead of the OPEC meeting this weekend to consider a fourth production cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) inclined by 239.66 points to close at 7,170.06 The NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) index grew by 54.46 points to close at 1,426.10 and the S&P 500 (SPX) grew by 29.38 points to close at 750.74.

Today major stock markets in Asia are trading positive. Shanghai composite is up by 13.20 points to 2,147.08 along with Hang Seng that is trading higher by 471.88 points at 12,473.41 and South Korea''s Seoul Composite is up by 5.07 points at 1,133.46. Japan''s Nikkei is also high by 354.90 points at 7,553.15 and Singapore''s Straits Times is high by 52.63 points at 1,546.16.

Indian ADRs closed up. In technology sector, Satyam ended higher by 0.56% along with Infosys by 3.67%. Further, Patni Computers gained 7.39 and Wipro closed up by 4.84%. In banking sector ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank gained 4.26% and 2.27% respectively. In telecommunication sector, MTNL dropped by 2.46% while Tata Communication advanced by 2.55%. Further, Sterlite Industries increased by 3.78%.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net buyers in equity and net sellers in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1,028.40 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 130.30 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,016.40 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 571.70 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 12 Crore and Rs (441.40) Crore respectively.

On Thursday, the Indian rupee closed at 51.88/89, 0.03 paise weaker than its previous close of 51.85/87. The gain in the stock markets kept the rupee firm.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 23.72 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 2,726.77 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 50.87 Crore and total turnover was Rs 8,353.43 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – ICICI Bank with 27371681, Suzlon Energy with 20824838 shares, Unitech with 15143785 shares, Bharti Airtel with 14874877 shares followed by Reliance Comm with 9316917 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1049444 with a total turnover of Rs 13,098.44 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 420857 with a total turnover of Rs 10,639.76 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1863364 with a total turnover of Rs 24,621.59 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 41948 and notional turnover was Rs 1,166.44 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,639 and resistance at 2,674 and BSE Sensex has support at 8,396 and resistance at 8,528.

Three straight days of rally at Wall Street

Encouraging retail sales data take stocks higher for third consecutive day

Stocks at Wall Street witnessed huge gains on Thursday 12 March, 2009. For stocks at Wall Street, it was the best three days since November, 2008. Couple of better than expected economic reports, mainly the retail sales data acted as the main catalyst behind today's rally. The fact a congressional subcommittee is meeting to examine mark-to-market accounting rules also helped support a positive bias. All the ten sectors surged led by huge gains in the financial sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended higher 239 points at 7,170, the Nasdaq closed higher by 55 points at 1,426 and the S&P 500 closed higher by 30 points at 750. Dow had started the day 36 points down earlier during the day

All but one of thirty Dow stocks ended in the green. Microsoft was the sole loser. American Express, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase were the main Dow winners. GE stock also rallied today despite the company getting a downgrade.

The financial sector had some good news once again today after Bank of America announced that it has witnessed profits for two months in a row this year. Other than that, the company also announced that it is perhaps done with taking further government aid.

Among major economic news at Wall Street today, the Commerce Department reported today that U.S. retail sales began the year 2009 much stronger than expected. It came after a disastrous holiday shopping season in 2008. Retail sales dropped 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, better than the 0.4% decline expected. More importantly, January's sales gain was revised much higher, to a 1.8% growth rate from the 1% increase estimated a month ago.

Retail sales are down 8.6% in the past year and had declined for a record six straight months before January's surprising gain. Sales had plunged 3.1% in December.

The report detailed that auto sales sank 4.3% in February, after automakers reported their worst month for sales in a generation. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.7% in February after an upwardly revised 1.6% gain in January. Sales excluding both gasoline and autos rose 0.5% in February after a 1.4% gain in January.

Other than the above report, the Labor Department reported today that the number of workers filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 654,000 last week. The average of new claims over the past four weeks also gained, rising 6,750 to stand at 650,000, the highest level since October 1982.

Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.

In a separate report, February business inventories declined 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus estimate.

Crude prices shot up on Thursday, 12 March, 2009. Prices rose today as traders mulled over OPEC's forthcoming meeting at Vienna this coming weekend where the cartel is expected to decide another production cut to restore crude prices. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for April delivery closed at $47.03/barrel (higher by $4.7 or 11.1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Tomorrow the main important economic reports expected are February export and import prices and the January trade balance. Around 10:00ET, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March.

Market seen extending gains on strong global cues

Key benchmark indices are likely to extend Thursday's 12 March 2009 rally on the back of surge in global markets. The SGX Nifty futures for March 2009 series jumped 67 points in Singapore.

Asian markets gained mirroring overnight rally in US markets. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.41% and 4.63%.

US stocks spurted on Thursday, 12 March 2009, on relief that a ratings cut by S&P in General Electric was just one notch and that no further cuts loomed, while retail sales data showed some stabilisation in consumer spending. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 239.66 points, or 3.46%, to 7,170.06, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 29.38 points, or 4.07%, to 750.74 and the Nasdaq Composite index added 54.46 points, or 3.97%, to 1,426.10.

On Thursday, 12 March 2009 Bank of America followed Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co in saying it was profitable in the first two months of 2009, easing concerns about the global credit crisis that has caused writedowns and losses at institutions worldwide to swell to more than $1.2 trillion.

Back home, Key benchmark indices advanced on Thursday, 12 March 2009, attempting to catch up with the global markets which surged in the past two days on 10 and 11 March 2009 while the local markets were shut for holiday. Expectations of further cut in policy rates by the central bank helped the market shrugged off weak data on industrial output whereas easing inflation raised hopes for further monetary-policy easing.

The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 183.35 points, or 2.25%, to 8,343.75 and the S&P CNX Nifty advanced 44.30 points, or 1.72%, to 2,617.45.

According to provisional data on NSE, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 186.66 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 227.10 crore on Thursday, 12 March 2009.

Industrial production declined for the third time in fours months in January 2009, government data released during trading hours on Thursday, 12 March 2009 showed. The index of industrial production (IIP) declined 0.5% in January 2009 against a upwardly revised 0.6% decline in December 2008. Industrial production had risen 6.18% in January 2008.

Manufacturing and mining contracted at 0.8% and 0.4% respectively while capital goods, consumer durables and consumer goods expanded at 15.4%, 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) rose 2.43% in the year through 28 February 2009, much lower than previous week's 3.03% rise, data released by the government on Thursday, 12 March 2009 showed. It was the smallest annual rise in inflation since 8 June 2002 when inflation was at 2.18%. Its lowest ever was 1.13% on 2 February 2002. However, the inflation for the year through 3 January 2009 was revised upwards to 5.33% from 5.24%.

The National Stock Exchange had earlier said that trading would continue in the normal course from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 despite Sun Outage between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST. The exchange has advised members to use alternative mode of connectivity instead of VSAT during the above mentioned period for continuing trading without any disruptions on account of Sun outage.

Earlier on 25 February 2009, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had informed the NSE that there would be Sun Outage from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST due to which trading members may face connectivity problems at different times on different dates based on geographical location during this period.

Daily News Roundup - March 13 2009

Vedanta Resources to set up a large aluminum complex at Bihanbag, Asansol, at an investment of Rs200bn. (ET)

DLF REIT to raise Rs20bn from a clutch of PE investors. (ET)

TCS forms JV with Thai Re-Insurance Public Corporation to offer IT outsourcing services on an ASP model to insurance providers in Thailand. (BL)

Bharti Airtel signs a US$100mn investment agreement with the Board of Investment of Sri Lanka to begin operations there. (ET)

Ashok Leyland plans to invest Rs60bn to shore up CV business in the next few years. (ET)

NTPC Board approves an investment of Rs73.4bn in 1,920 MW Barh super thermal power project stage-II in Bihar. (FE)

Tata Steel to source chrome ore from Iran for its upcoming ferro chrome plant in South Africa. (BS)

IOC to invest Rs5bn in R&D during the 11th five-Year plan ending 2012. (BL)

M&M's arm, Mahindra Intertrade opens an electrical steel plant in Vadodara, Gujarat. (BL)

Alok Industries has taken 50% stake in Ashford Infotech through a 100% subsidiary for joint development of realty projects. (BS)

Hikal to invest Rs2bn to set up four new manufacturing facilities in Bangalore and Mumbai and a R&D centre in Pune. (BS)

Gujarat Gas Company expects 10% drop in the availability of natural gas from Panna-Mukta-Tapti source from April. (BL)

Voltas eyes 20% share in AC market by adding 1,000 new channel partners to the distribution network. (DNA)

Gayatri Projects to enter the urban infrastructure and water treatment business segments. (DNA)

Everonn Systems plans to raise US$50mn to carry forward the expansion in the virtual classroom segment. (ET)

Tanla Solutions is in acquisition talks with 3-4 US-based firms with annual revenues in the range of US$30-70mn. (DNA)

Godfrey Phillips launches 'Fundamint' brand of mouth freshner. (DNA)

Goldstone Tech plans to roll-out IPTV services in 11 countries by the end of FY09. (BS)

Mumbai-based property developer, Oberoi Constructions, is planning Rs40bn IPO by the year end. (BS)

Piaggio eyes 5-fold increase in its Ape Truk (sub-one-tonne light CV) sales. (BS)

Shriram Properties to invest Rs5bn to develop mid-income housing projects across India over next 2-3 years. (ET)

Blackstone has picked up minority interest in Titagarh Wagons at Rs672/share. (ET)

The Government has notified new FDI norms for sectors including PSU oil refineries, industrial parks, credit information companies, titanium mining, commodity exchanges and civil aviation. (BL)

Royalty on iron ore mining may be changed to an ad Valorem rate of 10% from the current fixed rate of Rs13-27/ton. (ET)

Cement sales for the month of February were up 13% yoy. (BL)

Indian battery industry is set to double by 2011, says Exide Industries. (BL)

India's Travel & Tourism revenues are estimated at US$100bn in 2008 and may increase to US$276bn by 2018. (ET)

Global PC shipments to grow 12.8% this year, as per IDC. (BL)

Just not durable!

Man must be prepared for every event of life, for there is nothing that is durable.

Hoping for One Fine Day has also become difficult these days. Just when global cues seemed better, grim industrial output report spooked the bulls yesterday. We expect the market to open soft in the wake of the weakness in US and Asian markets. The trend thereafter will partly hinge on global cues. Tomorrow, we will get the weekly inflation data. A fresh spike there could deal another blow to the sentiment.

Shares of V-Guard Industries will get listed today on the bourses. The company has fixed the issue price at Rss82 per share. The issue was subscribed 2.45 times. The stock may list around Rs90 to Rs100. It can see the intraday level of Rs105 to Rs110.

India's industrial production halved in January (5.3%) from 11.6% in the year-ago period. The steep drop was led by continuing weakness in the consumer durables segment, which shrunk yet again. But, surprisingly, growth dipped sharply even in capital goods (2.1% vs 16.3%), which had so far held up quite well in the face of a slowdown on the consumption side. The figures are certainly worrisome and point to a clear slowdown in the domestic economic activity from the peak of last year.

The bad news on the industrial slowdown comes in the backdrop of an imminent recession in the US and persistent turmoil in the global financial markets. Another factor that could pose serious challenge for policymakers worldwide is the spurt across various commodities over the past few weeks. So, what we have is a weird situation where economic growth is slipping across the globe while at the same time inflation has started shooting up again.

It will be really tough for the Finance Minister and the RBI Governor to revive momentum in the Indian economy. The budget is partly an exercise in this direction. Another remedy to boost both consumption and investment demand could be an immediate easing of interest rates. But, it remains to be seen if the RBI obliges when it meets for its annual policy meeting next month. Before that we will have the Fed meet on March 18 and of course the all-important fourth quarter and annual results.

Asian stocks fell for the first time in three days, on concerns that demand for the region's exports will slow as record crude oil prices threaten to dent consumer spending worldwide.

Toyota dropped as the dollar slumped to the lowest against the yen since 1995. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group led declines among banks. But, Japanese oil producer Inpex Holdings rose.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% to 139.53 as of 10:24 a.m. in Tokyo, snapping a two-day, 2.3% gain. Nine of the benchmark's 10 industry groups declined, with more than three stocks dropping for each one that climbed.

The Nikkei in Tokyo was down 2% at 12,600 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slid 2.1% to 22,915. The Kospi in Seoul fell 1.2% to 1639 while the Straits Times in Singapore dropped 1.3% to 2880.

The Shanghai Composite in China shed 1.2% to 4019 after briefly slipping below 4,000 for the first time since July. The Taiex in Taiwan fell 0.6% to 8382. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.4%. All markets open for trading fell except New Zealand.

US stocks ended lower on Wednesday, erasing early gains, as record oil and gas prices overshadowed the Fed announcement that it will inject $200bn into the banking system to soften the liquidity crunch. Some Wall Street observers also attributed the decline to investors taking profits from the previous session's rally.

Stocks rose through the early afternoon as investors continued to cheer the Fed's plan to restore sanity in the credit markets. But the rally fizzled out late in the session and stocks turned lower as investors paid attention to record oil and gas prices.

The S &P 500 Index dropped 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,308.77. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 47 points, or 0.4%, to 12,110.24. The Nasdaq Composite fell 12 points, or 0.5%, to 2,243.87.

The Dow fell 211 points from its midday high as oil rose. On Tuesday, the bluechip benchmark had rallied 416 points, or 3.6%, its largest percentage climb since March 2003 and its fourth biggest point jump.

Market breadth was negative. Two stocks dropped for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Nine of 10 industries in the S&P 500 fell after Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and others said that the Fed's plan may not be able to ease the strain in the credit markets.

Crude oil prices resumed their advance, topping $110 for the first time, as the dollar remained under pressure. Oil had fallen in the morning after the government's weekly inventory report showed a surprise jump in crude supplies.

US light crude oil for April delivery rose $1.19 to settle at $109.72 a barrel in New York, a record close. COMEX gold for April delivery added $4.50 to $980.50 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro but was off its worst levels of the day after touching a fresh record low against the European currency earlier. The greenback fell versus the yen.

Treasury prices rallied after plunging a day before. The advance lowered the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.45% from 3.59% late on Tuesday.

European shares rose for a second straight session. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index climbed 1.2% to end at 311.48. The UK's FTSE 100 closed up 1.5% at 5,776.40, while the French CAC-40 climbed 1.5% to 4,697.10 and the German DAX 30 advanced 1.2% to 6,599.37.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 0.3% at 62,176 while the IPC index in Mexico shed 0.6% to 29,283. The RTS index in Russia rose 1% to 2079 and the ISE National 30 index in Turkey gained 2.4% to 55,190.

The start was quite promising for bulls with the benchmark Sensex hitting an intra-day high of 16,683. Key indices were firm and were in momentum ahead of break. However, post sun-outage disappointing IIP figures dampened the sentiments on Dalal Street.

Government data indicated that India's industrial growth dropped. India's industrial output growth shrank sharply in January as high interest rates sapped consumer spending in Asia's fourth-biggest economy even as a US-led global economic slowdown loomed.

Production at factories, mines and utilities rose by 5.3% in January as against 11.6% in the same month last year, data released by the Government showed today. The reading was lower than average expectations of 7-8% expansion.

Finally, the 30-share Sensex closed flat at 16,127 hitting an intra-day low of 16,064. The NSE Nifty also closed flat at 4,872 touching an intra-day high of 5,019 and a low of 4,854.

Overall about 1,264 stocks advanced, 1,442 stocks declined while 57 stocks remained unchanged. Among the Nifty-50 stocks 28 stocks advanced while 22 stocks declined.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices; BSE Metal index (down 2.3%), BSE IT index (down 2.1%), FMCG index (down 1.05%) and BSE Auto index (down 0.4%).

REC Electrification Corporation a public sector enterprise engaged in financing and promoting transmission, distribution and generation projects started trading at Rs124.65 against the issue price of Rs105. During the day the scrip took a beating hitting a low of Rs118, however, it managed to make a come back finally closing at Rs121 translating into a premium of 15%.

REC raised close to Rs1,640crore through its IPO. The company entered the capital market with its issue offering of 15.6crore shares. The issue got subscribed over 27 times. The price band for the IPO was Rs90 to Rs105.

The initial public offering of Rural Electrification Corporation was subscribed 27.30. The retail portion was subscribed 0.78 times of the 30% of the total offer on offer. The non-institutional investor portion was subscribed 0.76 times. The qualified institutional buyers segment, was subscribed 6.5 times.

Strides Arcolab slipped by 2% to Rs148. The company said that it secured an approval from Canada for its Tazo PIP Sterile. The company also secured approval for Penicillin Sterile facility. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs157 and a low of Rs148 and recorded volumes of over 71,000 shares on NSE.

Bajaj Auto gained by a percent to Rs2093. The company said that it would change name to Bajaj Holdings and Investments Ltd and would exit from benchmark Sensex and Nifty from March 14, 2008. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2150 and a low of Rs2055 and recorded volumes of over 4,0,000 shares on NSE.

Orbit Corp lost ground and slipped 2% to Rs521. Rodere Holdings, the Cyprus-based private equity investor, would invest Rs2bn in Orbit Corp. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs583 and a low of Rs515 and recorded volumes of over 60,000 shares on NSE.

Suven Life Science surged by over 8% to Rs38.30 after the company announced that it entered in a drug discovery pact with Eli Lilly. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs38.30 and a low of Rs31.35 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.

Fiscal Deficit woes

The UPA Government, which had expressed a strong intent at the beginning of its term to go by the rule-book in achieving the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management targets, is completing its five-year term without achieving those fiscal targets.

The FRBM targets of 3 per cent fiscal deficit and the elimination of revenue deficits will not be met and the goalposts have been shifted in the wake of the economic compulsions arising from the global financial meltdown. Things may not look up even in the next fiscal.
Rupee pressured

The huge fiscal deficit – which is estimated to cross 11 per cent (as percentage to GDP) by March 2009 – has prompted foreign funds to rush out of India, placing downward pressure on the rupee. Standard & Poor's, international credit rating agency, had recently revised the outlook on India's long-term sovereign credit rating to "negative" from "stable".

It would be wrong to blame the financial meltdown alone for the fiscal mess because the subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuels have also played a part when the global commodity cycle was on the upswing. But for the income-tax bounty that came the way of the UPA Government, many of the new schemes could not have been rolled out.

Critics feel that India could have done well to save some portion of the tax collections to be spent in the "bad times" rather than splurging them on "politically dividend paying" farm debt waiver and pay hike for government employees.

The three rounds of stimulus packages have only been the last nail in the fiscal coffin. The latest package, unveiled after the Interim Budget, involved revenue foregone of about Rs 30,000 crore through excise duty and service tax cuts.

In 2008-09, the counter-cyclical fiscal measures to minimise the impact of the global meltdown resulted in a cash spend of over Rs 1,50,000 crore. There was unprecedented rise in the subsidy bill of the Government for 2008-09. The higher subsidy bill will be met through issuance of special securities to the tune of Rs 95,942 crore for the fiscal year under review. While oil bond estimates for 2008-09 stood at Rs 75,942 crore, fertiliser bond estimates stood at Rs 20,000 crore.

via BL

Asian stocks open in green

Asian stocks climbed, after statements from Bank of America and General Electric eased concern the financial crisis will deepen.

Mizuho Financial Group gained more than 4%. Sony jumped 5.5% after the electronics maker said it will form a partnership with Seiko Epson on liquid-crystal displays.

Japanese benchmark index Nikkei advanced 90.15 points, or 1.22%, to trade at 7,285.97.

Hong Kong`s Hang Seng index rose 25.19 points, or 0.21%, to trade at 11,905.47.

China`s Shanghai Composite gained 22.48 points, or 1.05%, to trade at 2,116.54.

Taiwan`s Taiex index went up 18.31 points, or 0.38%, to trade at 4,778.27.

South Korea`s Kospi index increased 9.50 points, or 0.84%, to trade at 1,118.01.

Singapore`s Straits Times climbed 6.75 points, or 0.45%, to trade at 1,498.76. (7.39 a.m., IST).

Gold and silver continue to shine

Prices rise for second consecutive day

After dropping for two straight days, precious metals shone for second straight day on Thursday, 12 March, 2009. Prices rose today as buyers were back in action who had been refraining since quite some time due to the overall gloomy economic conditions.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Thursday, Comex Gold for April delivery rose $13.3 (1.5%) to close at $924 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last Tuesday, gold had dropped below $900 for first time in two months. Last week, the yellow metal remained almost unchanged. For the month of February, gold ended higher by 7.4%. For January, 2009, gold had gained 3.9%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 4.7%.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (8.9%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for May delivery rose 14.3 cents (1.1%) to end at $12.943 an ounce. Last week, silver rose 1.7%. In February, 2009, silver had rose 4.3% after climbing 14% in January. Year to date, silver has climbed 12.4% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

Crude takes a huge leap

Prices rise more than 11% at one shot

Crude prices shot up on Thursday, 12 March, 2009. Prices rose today as traders mulled over OPEC's forthcoming meeting at Vienna this coming weekend where the cartel is expected to decide another production cut to restore crude prices.

On Thursday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for April delivery closed at $47.03/barrel (higher by $4.7 or 11.1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, crude ended higher by 1.7%. For the month of February, crude prices had ended higher by 1.5%.

Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 68% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 11.3%. On a yearly basis, crude prices are lower by 55%.

OPEC has been trying to cut production consistently in order to step up prices from their current low levels. There has been conflicting reports in the market regarding the fact that OPEC is likely to reduce output in March, 2009. OPEC has already agreed to cut cartel quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day since September, equivalent to about 5% of global oil demand. The cartel is supposed to meet on 15 March, 2009 at Vienna.

Crude had slumped more than 10% in its past two sessions. The EIA had reported yesterday in its weekly inventory report that crude inventories rose by 700,000 million barrels last week. Market had expected a decline of 1 million barrels. As per the report, refinery capacity utilization rate remained low at 82.7%. It also showed that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex futures, fell for a fourth week to $33.6 million barrels.

The EIA report also showed petroleum demand has been falling. Total petroleum products supplies over the past four weeks, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, averaged 19.3 million barrels a day, down by 2.1% from a year ago. But gasoline demand over the past four weeks rose by 1.6% from a year ago.

Also at the Nymex on Thursday, April reformulated gasoline rose 7.6% to $1.3457 a gallon and April heating oil gained 8.2% to $1.2264 a gallon.

April natural-gas futures rose 5.2$ to $3.995 per million British thermal units. EIA reported today that U.S. natural-gas inventories fell by 112 billion cubic feet in the week ended 6 March, 2009. At 1,681 billion cubic feet, inventories were 271 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 197 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.

Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex

Inflation down, food still costly

The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation dipped 60 basis points to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent. Food inflation, however, continued to hover around the double-digit levels, offering little respite despite the declining trend in the headline inflation.

While the dip has largely been driven by low fuel group inflation and slowing manufactured product inflation levels, the latest reported data show that year-on-year inflation in case of primary articles, led by mass consumption food items, continued to stay near double-digit levels. Besides, the sequential inflation in some of these items is also high; the week-on-week inflation in vegetables recorded an alarming 4 per cent.

According to the latest data, the WPI-based inflation rose 2.43 per cent for the week ended February 28, lower than the 3.03 per cent annual rise the previous week. Items such as cereals (11 per cent), pulses (13 per cent) and sugar (23 per cent) showed a year-on-year inflation well over the double digits. Besides, inflation levels in case of milk and fruits (both 7 per cent) and vegetables and spices (both 9 per cent) were within touching distance of the double-digit mark. On a sequential basis as well, inflation in the case of vegetables (4 per cent), fruits (1 per cent) and sugar (1 per cent) showed a surge during the latest reported week.

"There is no doubt that continuing food-based inflation is a worrying sign, though there's been a bit of a declining trend. Also, food inflation tends to hit the poor the hardest," an analyst said.

With food-based inflation continuing to stay high, the year-on-year inflation rate of primary articles was at 6 per cent; for manufactured products, it was at 4 per cent during the latest week. In 'fuel and power', inflation continued to decline at (-) 5.1 per cent vis-a-vis (-) 4.0 per cent dip last week, mainly on account of fall in non-administered oils.

Inflation in the overall food index (with a weight of 25.43 per cent in the index) declined marginally to 7.5 per cent the latest week, compared to 7.7 per cent last week, on account of fall in manufactured food products.

Even as food inflation stayed high, some analysts warn the drop in headline inflation has been too rapid. WPI-based inflation is "on track to turn negative in the next two or three months," according to HSBC economist Mr Robert Prior-Wandesforde

Markets end in positive

The market displayed a positive trend almost for the entire session. Taking cue from firm US indices, Sensex opened 115 points higher at 8275 and continued to rally to touch the day's high of 8440 on buying in auto and banking stocks. Thereafter, the market remained range-bound with a positive bias. However the announcement of index of industrial production (IIP) numbers for January 2009 did little for the market despite IIP reporting a -0.5% growth. However, profit booking in some of the frontline stocks dragged the market to its intra-day low of 8275. Sensex bounced back towards the close, as short covering in heavyweights helped the index to recover and end the session at 8344, up 183 points. Nifty finally settled at 2617, up 44 points.

The market breadth was negative. Of the 2,523 stocks traded on BSE, 1,262 stocks declined, whereas 1,162 stocks advanced. Ninety nine stocks ended unchanged. Among sectoral indices, BSE Auto notched up by 3..70% followed by BSE Bankex (up 3.33%) and BSE Oil & Gas (up 3.21%). The remaining indices gained 1-2% each except BSE CD and BSE Teck, which had a negative run today.

The heavyweights witnessed strong buying interest. ICICI Bank soared 8.10% at Rs284.25, Sterlite Industries rose 7.26% at Rs262.20, Tata Motors was up 6.77% at Rs145.95, Maruti Suzuki India shot up by 5.83% at Rs688.65, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries jumped 4.78% at Rs1,025.45, Reliance Communications added 4.57% at Rs138.30, Reliance Industries gained 4.17% at Rs1201.95, ACC moved up by 4.15% at Rs541 and Hindustan Unilever was up 4.09% at Rs225.35. However, Bharti Airtel slipped 6.37% at Rs550.30 and Tata Power lost 2.52% at Rs607.10.

Over 3.75 crore shares of Satyam Computer Services changed hands on BSE followed by Infrastructure Development Finance Company (1.61 crore shares), Rolta India (98 lakh shares), ICICI Bank (79 lakh shares) and Cal Refineries (75 lakh shares).

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - March 12 2009

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
12/3/2009 505506 AXON INFOTEC SAI KANAKAMAHALAKSHMI FINANCE B 5000 8.04
12/3/2009 505923 CEEKAY DIAKI HIMANIKA HIMANSHU TIMBADIA B 25000 22.16
12/3/2009 505923 CEEKAY DIAKI SHILPA KETAN SHAH S 24532 22.08
12/3/2009 524388 CRAZY INFOTE ALKA DAGA B 302965 0.82
12/3/2009 524388 CRAZY INFOTE MANOJDAGA S 300000 0.82
12/3/2009 533055 EDSERV SOFT OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 175161 44.38
12/3/2009 533055 EDSERV SOFT OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 175161 44.40
12/3/2009 533055 EDSERV SOFT MEENA KISHORE PATKI S 75000 40.65
12/3/2009 531137 GEMSTONE INV BIPINKUMAR RAMNIKLAL GANDHI S 44800 22.91
12/3/2009 532659 INFRA DEVFIN MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITED B 13202060 44.55
12/3/2009 532659 INFRA DEVFIN GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 13202060 44.55
12/3/2009 512185 IOL NET COM ICG Q LIMITED B 340000 39.00
12/3/2009 512185 IOL NET COM HSBC BANK MAURITIUS LIMITED S 340000 39.00
12/3/2009 505840 JAIPAN INDUS KAILASH CHHAPARWAL B 111192 40.75
12/3/2009 505840 JAIPAN INDUS SHIWAM KUMAR BHARTI B 53999 42.84
12/3/2009 505840 JAIPAN INDUS BHUPENDRA RAMESHCHANDRA JAIN B 40000 42.66
12/3/2009 505840 JAIPAN INDUS KANTA ANANTRAI DESAI S 50000 42.95
12/3/2009 505840 JAIPAN INDUS MANOJ H.MEHTA S 100000 42.95
12/3/2009 532967 KIRI DYES T K DUGAR AND CO S 200000 114.40
12/3/2009 532967 KIRI DYES RISHABH DUGAR S 140000 114.20
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING HARDIK M MITHANI B 29276 65.08
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING NAINESH HIMAT JATANIA B 20000 65.90
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING HARDIK M. MITHANI B 20125 65.89
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING KAMLESH H DAFTARY B 20000 65.90
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING PARESHBHAI MANHARBHAI ZATAKIA B 31003 65.57
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING HARDIK M MITHANI S 29276 65.90
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING VISHAL VASANTBHAI HINSU S 17000 64.90
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING VISHAL V HINSU S 30000 65.90
12/3/2009 511728 KZLEASING PARESHBHAI MANHARBHAI ZATAKIA S 31003 65.48
12/3/2009 523523 RAINBOW PAPE ULTRATECH PAPER PVT LTD B 70215 35.00
12/3/2009 531952 RIBA TEXTILE SHAILESH SOMABHAI PATEL S 61500 29.93
12/3/2009 500376 SATYAM COMP OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 3966061 49.38
12/3/2009 500376 SATYAM COMP OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 3966061 49.46
12/3/2009 512048 SPLASH MEDIA TAMMANSA D KATWA B 11000 91.00
12/3/2009 531962 VALLEY INDIA MUKESH RADHESHYAM KAKHANI B 38500 8.36
12/3/2009 532917 VARUN INDS KUNVARJI FINSTOCK PVT LTD S 123000 25.87
12/3/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA TUSHAR RAMESHBHAI PATEL B 23700 86.77
12/3/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA KAMOD DEVI BACHHAWAT S 40000 86.78

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - March 12 2009

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
12-MAR-2009,AUTOIND,Autoline Industries Limit,DUKE ADVISORS (P) LTD,BUY,98900,50.40,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,102767,43.09,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,CPR CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,BUY,104508,43.53,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,BUY,76267,43.63,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,DKG SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,BUY,170000,40.81,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,MEENA KISHORE PATKI,BUY,75000,43.46,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,145338,44.77,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,72093,43.51,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,VAIBHAV DOSHI,BUY,123606,42.84,-
12-MAR-2009,KIRIDYES,Kiri Dyes and Chemicals L,SILVER CROSS MARKETING PVT LTD,BUY,250839,114.42,-
12-MAR-2009,RAJESHEXPO,Rajesh Exports Ltd.,RAJESH JASWANTH RAJMEHTA,BUY,2954185,22.50,-
12-MAR-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,OM INVESTMENTS,BUY,3779924,49.05,-
12-MAR-2009,UMITL,Usha Martin Infotech Ltd,SAUGATA BANERJEE,BUY,475000,3.00,-
12-MAR-2009,VARUN,Varun Industries Limited,HASMUKHBHAI N VORA,BUY,256000,25.92,-
12-MAR-2009,VARUN,Varun Industries Limited,Interface Network & Marketing P. Ltd,BUY,175726,25.77,-
12-MAR-2009,AUTOIND,Autoline Industries Limit,DUKE SPECIAL OPPORTUNITY FUND LLC,SELL,98900,50.40,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,102767,42.62,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,CPR CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,SELL,109078,43.49,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,SELL,76267,43.42,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,DKG SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,18615,46.42,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,MEENA KISHORE PATKI,SELL,75000,44.26,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,145338,44.79,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,72093,43.49,-
12-MAR-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,VAIBHAV DOSHI,SELL,123606,42.59,-
12-MAR-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,NORGES BANK,SELL,80000,84.99,-
12-MAR-2009,KIRIDYES,Kiri Dyes and Chemicals L,RICHIKA DUGAR,SELL,85000,114.09,-
12-MAR-2009,KIRIDYES,Kiri Dyes and Chemicals L,SILVER CROSS MARKETING PVT LTD,SELL,839,115.00,-
12-MAR-2009,KIRIDYES,Kiri Dyes and Chemicals L,T K DUGAR & CO - PROP - TULSI KUMAR DUGAR,SELL,200000,114.40,-
12-MAR-2009,RAJESHEXPO,Rajesh Exports Ltd.,SANDEEP DHIRAJLAL DHAKAN,SELL,2300000,22.50,-
12-MAR-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,OM INVESTMENTS,SELL,3779924,49.09,-
12-MAR-2009,UMITL,Usha Martin Infotech Ltd,SANGHAI COMMERCIAL & CREDIT (P) LTD.,SELL,475000,3.00,-
12-MAR-2009,VARUN,Varun Industries Limited,Interface Network & Marketing P. Ltd,SELL,165670,25.02,-
12-MAR-2009,VARUN,Varun Industries Limited,KUNVARJI FINSTOCK PVT LTD,SELL,130514,26.00,-

Post Session Commentary - March 12 2009

Indian market gained sharply today after 2 days of holiday tracking the Wall Street gains. Investors ignored weak industrial production data for January 2009, which stood at -0.5 per cent as against -0.6 per cent in December 2008. However, the domestic market also got the support from the drastic fall in India''s annual inflation rate that dropped to six and a half year low to 2.43% for the week ended February 28 against 3.03% previous week.

The domestic market opened on pleasant note on the back of positive cues from US markets during two days local holiday. Wednesday, the US stock markets ended flat after a sharp solid start. The financial stocks rallied as investors were carried away by the government plans to stabilize banks. Benchmark indices continued to gain ground on sustained buying over the ground. Upward movement was also supported by lower inflation number for the week ended 28th February 2009. Further, strong sentiments overlooked negative IIP data for January 2009. Market maintained its northward journey till end despite negative opening of European markets. BSE Sensex ended above 8,300 mark and NSE Nifty above 2,600 level. From the sectoral front, traders on-loaded position in majority of the sectors. Besides, most of the buying was witnessed in Auto, Bank, Oil & Gas, Metal, IT, FMCG and Capital Goods stocks. BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks also followed the same trend. However, Consumer Durables and Teck stocks remain out of favour as observed most of the selling from these baskets.

Among the Sensex pack 25 stocks ended in green territory and 5 in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1262 stocks closed in green while 1162 stocks closed in red and 99 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 183.35 points at 8,343.75 and NSE Nifty ended up by 44.3 points at 2,617.45. BSE Mid Caps and BSE Small Caps ended with gains of 10.91 points and 10.59 points at 2,564.40 and 2,877.27 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 8,439.71 and intraday low of 8,274.78.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are ICICI Bank (8.10%), Sterlite Industries (7.26%), Tata Motors (6.77%), Maruti Suzuki (5.83%), Sun Pharma (4.78%), RCom (4.57%), Reliance (4.17%), ACC Ltd (4.15%) and HUL (4.09%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Bharti Airtel (6.37%), Tata Power (2.52%), NTPC Ltd (1.56%), DLF Ltd (01.33%) and Ranbaxy Lab (0.41%).

For January 2009, industrial production stood at -0.5 per cent as against -0.6 per cent in December 2008. The December figure of (-2.2) per cent has now been revised to (-0.6) per cent. This is the third time in this fiscal that industrial growth has turned negative on account of sharp drop in demand both overseas as well as domestic markets. The IIP number stood at 6.18 per cent for the corresponding period of previous year.

India''s inflation for the week ended 28th February 2009, slipped below 3 per cent as stood at 2.43 per cent as against 3.03 per cent in the previous week. This is the lowest level for inflation since June 2002. However, wholesale price index (WPI) for all commodities, increased 0.04 per cent to 227.7 as compared to 227.6 on a week-on week basis. The annual inflation rate was 6.21 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

On the global markets front the Asian markets which opened before the Indian market, ended lower amid renewed worries about the economy. Japan's economy contracted at 3.2% in the three months to December and 12.1% on an annualized basis as the global downturn choked off demand for cars, high-tech goods and other exports. Shanghai Composite, Nikkei 225, and Straits Times index ended lower by 5.14, 177.87 and 11.98 points at 2,133.88, 7,198.25 and 1,493.53 respectively. However, Hang Seng gained 70.87 points at 12,001.53.

European markets which opened after the Indian market are trading in red. In London FTSE 100 is trading lower by 63.90 points at 3,629.91 and in Frankfurt the DAX index is trading down by 99.87 points at 3,814.23.

The BSE Auto index ended up by (3.70%) or 96.12 points at 2,695.27 as Indian automakers are confident of weathering economic storm. Gainers are Escorts Ltd (15.62%), Tata Motors (6.77%), Bharat Forge (5.86%), Maruti Suzuki (5.83%) and Herohonda Motor (4.19%).

The BSE Bank index closed with increase of (3.33%) or 120.99 points at 3,754.22 gained on hopes lower interest rates may boost lending growth. Scrips that gained are Axis Bank (8.35%), ICICI Bank (8.10%), Indian Overseas Bank (5.87%), Karnataka Bank (4.65%) and Bank of India (4.56%).

The BSE Oil & Gas index ended higher by (3.21%) or 180.76 points to close at 5,814.64. Reliance (4.17%), Reliance Petroleum (4.09%), Gail India (3.97%), ONGC Ltd (2.46%) and Reliance Natural Resources (1.58%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Metal index also gained (2.87%) or 127.40 points to close at 4,566.46. Sterlite Industries (7.26%), Sesa Goa Ltd (5.13%), Hindalco (3.96%), Sterlite Industries (3.27%) and Tata Steel (2.40%) ended in green.

The BSE Consumer Durable stocks lost (1.30%) or 19.12 points to close at 1,452.44. Main losers are Blue Star L (2.15%), Rajesh Export (1.75%), Videocon Ind (1.31%) and Titan Ind (1.10%).

The BSE Teck index lost (0.09%) or 1.43 points at 1,634.12. Losers are Sun TV (6.96%), Tel18 (3.66%), Rolta Ind (3.67%), Bharti Airtel (6.37%) and IOL Netcom (6.35%).
Sterlite Industries advanced by 7.26% as the company has signed a new agreement with Asarco, a copper mining company of the US to buy its operating assets for $1.7 billion. This deal is viewed as an opportunity for geographic diversification in the US market by Sterlite, which is a subsidiary of London-based Vedanta Resources.

Tata Motors gained 6.77% as it has entered into a tie-up with State Bank of Mysore provide an added facility of car finance to its customers. This facility will be available at all branches of State Bank of Mysore and 329 sales touch points of Tata Motors.

Satyam Computer Services Limited ended down by 3.18%. The company was honored, along with the LV Prasad Eye Institute, with a Consumer Health World Award for a tele-ophthalmology program, which provides expert and affordable eye care to Indian villages.

Aurobindo Pharma Limited remained unchanged. The company has received tentative approval for Lopinavir/Ritonavir Tablets 100/25mg and 200/50mg from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

Sensex gains 2.25% on rate cut hopes

Sell-off in Bharti Airtel capped sharp gains in the key benchmark indices triggered by rally in battered index pivotals Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank. The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 183.35 points, or 2.25%, off 95.51 points from the day's high but up 68.97 points from the day's low. Expectations of further cut in policy rates by the central bank helped the market shrugged off weak data on industrial output. Easing inflation raised hopes for further monetary-policy easing.

Despite the gains, the market breadth was negative on BSE. The breadth turned negative from a strong breadth in early trade.

As per the provisional data released by the stock exchanges, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) today, 12 March 2009, sold shares worth a net Rs 186.86 crore whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 227.10 crore.

In the last few months, DIIs have absorbed heavy sales by FIIs who are facing redemption pressures in their home countries amid the global financial sector crisis.

Indian equities opened firm today, playing a catch-up with global markets after a two-day break on 10 and 11 March 2009 on account of local holidays. The market surged in early afternoon trade after the latest data showed a sharp fall in inflation which will provide room for the central bank to reduce policy rates further. However, the market soon cut gains as the data showed industrial production declined for the second month in a row in January 2009.

The market firmed up again in afternoon trade with the Sensex surging to the day's high. It firmed up further before profit taking pulled it off the day's high. The market weakened further in late trade as index heavyweight Bharti Airtel slumped.

Industrial production declined for the third time in fours months in January 2009. The index of industrial production (IIP) declined 0.5% in January 2009 against a upwardly revised 0.6% decline in December 2008, government data released during trading hours today showed. Industrial production had risen 6.18% in January 2008.

Manufacturing and mining contracted at 0.8% and 0.4% respectively while capital goods, consumer durables and consumer goods expanded at 15.4%, 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) rose 2.43% in the year through 28 February 2009, much lower than previous week's 3.03% rise, data released by the government today, 12 March 2009, showed. It was the smallest annual rise in inflation since 8 June 2002 when inflation was at 2.18%. Its lowest ever was 1.13% on 2 February 2002. However, the inflation for the year through 3 January 2009 was revised upwards to 5.33% from 5.24%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 4 March 2009 cut the repo rate and reverse repo rate by 50 basis points each, with immediate effect. At that time, RBI said it will continue to maintain ample liquidity in the system.

According to a domestic brokerage, the latest RBI rate cut will set the ball rolling for lower interest rates in the economy and increase credit flow to individuals and the corporate sector. The latest rate cut brings the reverse repo to 3.5%, identical to the rate at which banks mobilize savings deposits. The lower repo rate in turn could dissuade banks from parking surplus funds with the RBI and increase lending, it notes in a report. Banks have been parking large sums of money with RBI through the repo window.

According to Aditya Puri, Managing Director, HDFC Bank, Indian banks are flush with funds and interest rates have dropped drastically over the past few months. According to him, the regulators should allow Indian banks to raise long term funds without cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirements for such funding. This in turn will enable banks to provide long-term lending to corporates and long-gestation infrastructure projects.

European shares lost ground on Thursday, with oil producers and mineral extractors among the weakest performers and banks also coming under a bit of selling pressure. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 1.55% and 2.49%.

Asian markets, rebounded from early lows and were trading mixed now. Key benchmark indices in Singapore and Taiwan were down 0.80% and 0.11%. South Korea's Seoul Composite index rose 0.08%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.59%, reversing early losses.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index slumped 2.41% after a revised data showed that the Japanese economy contracted at a 12.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter

China's Shanghai Composite index fell 0.24% after industrial-production growth slowed in the first two months of the year as exports slid at a record pace. Output rose 3.8% in January and February 2009 from a year earlier, slowing from a 5.7% increase in December 2008, the statistics bureau said today, 12 March 2009.

Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could fall 52 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 12 March 2009.

US markets ended slightly higher on Wednesday, 11 March 2009 amid hope for additional government financial support for the tumbling economy. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 3.91 points, or 0.06%, to 6,930.40. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index climbed 1.76 points, or 0.24%, to 721.36, while the Nasdaq Composite index increased 13.36 points, or 0.98%, to 1,371.64.

Earlier, US markets had surged on Tuesday, 10 March 2009 after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the government will use capital injections to spur lenders to sell distressed securities. Meanwhile, US Congress also gave its final approval to $410 billion stimulus package.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on Wednesday, 11 March 2009, that the bank was profitable in January and February 2009 bolstering speculation that the worst of the banking crisis may be over. On Tuesday, 10 March 2009 Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit wrote in an internal memorandum that the firm was profitable in the first 2 months of 2009 and is confident about its capital strength.

The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 183.35 points, or 2.25%, to 8,343.75. Sensex opened 114.38 points higher at 8,274.78, also its day's low. At the day's high of 8,439.26, the Sensex gained 278.86 points in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty advanced 44.30 points, or 1.72%, to 2,617.45. Nifty March 2009 futures were at 2597.70, a discount of 19.75 points over spot closing. Turnover in NSE's Futures & options segment rose to Rs 49526.24 crore from Rs 37897.25 crore on Monday, 9 March 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned negative during the course of the day. On BSE, 1274 shares declined as compared with 1151 that advanced. A total of 96 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was strong in early trade.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 2721 crore, higher than Rs 2,201.43 crore on Monday, 9 March 2009.

The barometer index BSE Sensex had settled at its lowest level in more than three years on Monday, 9 March 2009. The Sensex is down 1303.56 points or 13.51% in calendar 2009 from its close of 9,647.31 on 31 December 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty is down 341.70 points or 11.54% in calendar 2009 from its close of 2,959.15 on 31 December 2008.

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index (up 0.43%) and BSE Small-Cap index (up 0.37%), both underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Oil & Gas index (up 3.21%), the BSE IT index (up 2.38%), the BSE Metal index (up 2.87%), the BSE Bankex (up 3.33%), the BSE Auto index (up 3.70%), the BSE FMCG index (up 2.26%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Capital Goods index (up 2%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 1.30%), the BSE Power index (up 0.54%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.06%), the BSE Healthcare index (up 1.23%), the BSE TECk index (down 0.09%), the BSE Realty index (up 0.44%), underperfomed the Sensex

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 24 logged gains while only 6 of them slipped. Tata Power (down 3.10%), NTPC (down 2.75%), Ranbaxy (down 1.04%) edged lower from the Sensex pack.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) shot up 3.90% to Rs 1198.90 on bargain hunting after a recent steep slide. The stock moved in a band of Rs 1170 and Rs 1212.75. Earlier, the stock lost 16.93% to Rs 1153.85 in one month to 9 March 2009.

India's largest state-run oil exploration firm by sales ONGC gained 2.10% and India's largest private sector oil exploration firm by sales Cairn India rose 0.65% after crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on the Asian electronic trading on Thursday, 12 March 2009. Rise in crude oil prices would result in higher realizations from crude sales for the oil exploration firm.

Shares of state-run oil marketing firm slipped on concerns about the weak rupee. HPCL (down 1.47%), BPCL (down 0.42%) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) (down 0.85%) fell. The recent sharp slide in the rupee against the dollar will raise cost of crude imports of oil refiners unless they undertake effective hedging strategies. Oil firms rely substantially on import of crude oil.

Oil marketing firms suffer under-recovery on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene at a controlled price.

US light, sweet crude for April 2009 delivery rose 76 cents or 1.80% to $43.09 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on Thursday, 12 March 2009 after a 10% fall in the past two sessions.

Rate sensitive banking shares vaulted on hopes lower interest rates may boost lending growth and on rally in American depository receipt (ADRs) on Tuesday, 10 March 2009.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank jumped 8.71% to Rs 285.85 on 78.83 lakh shares after its ADR surged 16.27% on on Tuesday, 10 March 2009. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India gained 1.13% to Rs 906.90. Though the stock rebounded from the day's low of Rs 898, it is off from the day's peak of Rs 935.

Axis Bank (up 9.28%), Karnataka Bank (up 4.47%), Andhra Bank (up 3.95%), Bank of India (up 4.78%), and Punjab National Bank (up 4.72%), logged gains.

However India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank fell 0.73% to Rs 793. The rose as much as 3.51% at the day's high of Rs 826.90 mirroring a 10.97% rally in its ADR on Tuesday, 10 March 2009.

Auto shares gained after the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) data released on Monday, 9 March 2009 showed 10.61% rise in auto sales to 10.4 lakh units in February 2009 over February 2008.

Mahindra & Mahindra (up 4.06%), and Maruti Suzuki India (up 6.04%), surged.

India's largest truck maker by sales Tata Motors galloped 6.62% to Rs 142.75 after the British government announced a 27 million pounds (Rs 192 crore) grant to Jaguar Land Rover to help it build a new, greener vehicle. Its ADR surged 12.15% on Tuesday, 10 March 2009.

Ashok Leyland rose 3.12% to Rs 16.55 on reports the company has increased the number of working days at its manufacturing units due to recovery in demand.

However realty stocks fell on recent reports falling interest rates have failed to revive housing demand. DLF (down 1.44%), Ansal Infrastructure (down 0.45%), Sobha Developers (down 0.90%), and Omaxe (down 0.50%) fell. Most of the realty deals including sale of commercial property and housing sales are driven by finance.

India's largest pharma company by market capitalisation Sun Pharmaceuticals spurted 4.33% to Rs 1021. After market hours on Friday, 6 March 2009, Sun Pharma said it extended its tender offer to Taro Pharmaceuticals till 20 March 2009. The extension was to comply with an order issued by the Supreme Court of Israel prohibiting the closing of the offer until the court decides on the appeal made by Taro's non-promoter directors against the offer.

India's top copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries India vaulted 7.18% to Rs 262 after foreign brokerage Credit Suisse retained its 'outperform' rating on stock with a target price of Rs 500. On 7 March 2009, the company announced that it will pay $1.7 billion in cash and notes to buy bankrupt US copper miner Asarco LLC, lower than the $2.6 billion it offered last year.

India's largest private sector steel maker by sales Tata Steel rose 1.31% to Rs 154.30. On 10 March 2009, the company announced that the production cut at its UK-subsidiary Corus continues to be about 40%.

Other metal shares also gained. Hindalco Industries (up 3.17%), Sesa Goa (up 4.85%), JSW Steel (up 1.32%), and Sail (up 3.20%), edged higher.

Outsourcing focussed IT firms gained as higher ADRs and a weak rupee. India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 1.88% after it signed a multi-year IT solutions contract with German semiconductor maker Infineon Technologies AG, one of the leading semiconductor manufacturers. The financial details were not disclosed.

India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro rose 1.58% after its ADR jumped 11.15% on Tuesday, 10 March 2009. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies advanced 2.45% after a 7.41% surge in its ADR on Tuesday, 10 March 2009.

However India's fifth largest IT major by sales HCL Technologies fell 1.48%.

Tech Mahindra fell 1.54% to Rs 259. Reportedly the company is in discussions to acquire Bangalore-based niche telecom solutions player Sloka Telecom. The 5- year-old tech start-up Sloka Telecom has put a price tag of Rs 30-35 crore but there is no agreement on a final transaction.

The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar today, 12 March 2009 on expectations of capital outflow from the stock exchanges. The partially convertible rupee was at 51.93 per dollar, weaker than its previous close of 51.85/51.87. A weak rupee boosts revenues of IT firms in rupee terms as IT companies earn a lion's share of revenue from exports.

India's largest FMCG major by sales Hindustan Unilever (HUL) jumped 3.83% to Rs 224.80 on bargain hunting after a recent steep slide. The stock had slumped 11.48% in the previous four trading sessions to Rs 216.50 on 9 March 2009 from Rs 241.50 on 3 March 2009 triggered by foreign brokerage JPMorgan Chase & Company cutting its rating on the stock to 'underweight' from 'neutral', citing weakening growth and increasing competition.

ITC (up 0.82%), Nestle India (up 2.74%), Bata India (up 2.82%), and Britannia Industries (up 0.49%), gained.

Capital goods shares gained on steady progress to the landmark India-US civil nuclear deal. Gammon India (up 3.29%), Areva T&D (up 1.31%), Siemens (up 2.31%), and Punj Lloyd (up 1.52%), gained.

India's largest engineering and construction by sales Larsen & Toubro (L&T) advanced 2.40% to Rs 575.30 on reports Oman has shortlisted six firms including Larsen & Toubro, to build a $1.4 billion airport terminal. The lowest bidder is a consortium of the local NRI-owned Galfar Engineering & Contracting Company and L&T, the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED) reported last week.

Meanwhile, L&T has registered interest to participate in the bidding process for Satyam Computer Services, its spokesman said today. L&T is the single largest shareholder in Satyam with a 12% stake.

Satyam Computer Services slipped 3.79%. Suitors for fraud-hit Satyam have to give notice by today, 12 March 2009, that they are interested in bidding for the Indian outsourcing firm amid lingering uncertainty over the true state of its finances.

India's largest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals rose 3.96% to Rs 1352 on bagging an order worth Rs 81 crore from Powegen Infrastructure for supplying generator transformers for the 1980-megawatt (MW) Tirora thermal power project of Adani Power Maharashtra (APML) at Tirora in Gondia district of Maharashtra. The company unveiled the new order win on Monday, 9 March 2009.

India's Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, who discussed the nuclear deal with both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and his counterpart Under Secretary for Political Affairs William Burns, said the deal is on track with both sides determined to go forward with an initiative. Noting that deal had already been signed in 2008, Menon said now its a question of operationalisation and bringing it down to the commercial level. For that India had already signed an additional protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Telecom pivotals saw divergent trend after the Telecoms Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) on Monday, 9 March 2009, said it will cut the termination charge telecom firms pay each other for domestic calls while increasing the rate for incoming international calls.

Shares of India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel, having weightage of 6.12% in the BSE 30-share Sensex, fell on concerns that large operators like the company and unlisted Vodafone will likely get hurt from the cut in domestic termination charges as they are the net collectors of termination fees while the other operators are net payers. The stock was down 7.20% to Rs 545.45 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack.

Another reason why Bharti Airtel slumped was news of its chief executive, Manoj Kohli, offloading his holding in the telecom firm through open-market transactions. Kohli, who owned 1,23,000 shares, sold 53,000 shares on 6 March and 70,000 shares on 9 March 2009.

After trading hours, Kohli clarified that he sold the shares for personal reasons and that he continues to be the chief executive officer and joint managing director of the company. He further said he still held 1,80,000 options in the company.

India's second largest cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications advanced 3.89% to Rs 137.40 on bargain hunting after a recent sharp fall. The stock lost 20.52% to Rs 132.25 in a month to on 9 March 2009.

Reliance Industries topped the turnover chart on BSE with a turnover of Rs 223.53 crore followed by ICICI Bank (Rs 222.16 crore), Satyam Computer Services (Rs 184.30 crore), Bharti Airtel (Rs 137.20 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 123.11 crore).

Satyam Computer Services led the volume chart on BSE clocking volume of 3.76 crore shares followed by IDFC (1.61 crore), Rolta India (98.88 lakh), ICICI Bank (79.05 lakh) and Cals Refineries (75.23 lakh).

Aurobindo Pharma gained 0.28% to Rs 158.65 on BSE, on receiving US nod for a generic drug. The company made this announcement during trading hours today, 12 March 2009.

Fulford (India) soared 14.71% to Rs 333 on speculation of a possible open offer from Merck & Co Inc.

The National Stock Exchange had earlier said that trading would continue in the normal course from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 despite Sun Outage between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST. The exchange has advised members to use alternative mode of connectivity instead of VSAT during the above mentioned period for continuing trading without any disruptions on account of Sun outage.

Earlier on 25 February 2009, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had informed the NSE that there would be Sun Outage from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST due to which trading members may face connectivity problems at different times on different dates based on geographical location during this period.

Pre Session Commentary - March 12 2009

Today domestic markets are likely to open negative as the other Asian markets have opened with blood bath. RBI governor Dr. Subba Rao has stated to a Japanese news paper that achieving a GDP growth rate of 7% is little impossible. The IIP growth data for January would come today and the numbers would also have some impact on the market movements. There are anticipations that the January IIP numbers would show little positive growth as against a contraction of 2% in December. The sentiments across other markets are very weak and therefore domestic investors may also trade with a pessimistic and cautious note.

On Monday, the domestic markets opened with a negative gap and closed in red. The sentiments were weak since the opening as anticipated due to weak global cues. There was no sign of recovery throughout the day's trade. Further towards the end the selling pressure intensified and the frontline stocks were brutally shattered. Profit booking was witnessed across the broader level on the surge of Friday's trade. Sectors like Realty, FMCG, Bankex and Teck lost 3.21%, 2.78%, 2.78% and 2.58% respectively. Whereas Auto was the only sectors that remained safe with a marginal gain of 0.07%. During the session we expect the markets to be trading volatile.

The BSE Sensex closed low by 165.42 points at 8,160.40 and NSE Nifty fell by 47 points at 2,573.15. The BSE Small cap and Mid Cap closed with losses of 32.81 points and 45.05 points at 2,553.49 and 2,866.68 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 8,259.22 and intraday low of 8,110.10.

On Wednesday, the US stock markets closed flat. The phenomenal rally in the early trade was later discounted with huge profit booking. The session therefore witnessed a choppy trade after investors booked profits across broader stocks. However investors are also waiting for tomorrow''s congressional committee meeting, which will examine mark-to-market accounting rules. The rules have enabled massive write-downs at banks and other financial companies. The temporarily suspension of the rules could remove an overhang from many financial companies, potentially allowing their shares to rip higher. There was no specific news to drive the markets as such the markets closed nearly flat. US light crude oil for April delivery fell by a drastic $3.38 to settle at $42.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude oil fell as the US Energy Information Administration said that the domestic crude oil inventories rose more than 7,00,000 barrels to 351.3 million barrels in the week ended March 6. They have further forecasted a fall in the demand of oil during 2009.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) inclined by 3.91 points to close at 6,930.40 The NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) index grew by 13.36 points to close at 1,371.64 and the S&P 500 (SPX) grew by 1.76 points to close at 721.36.

Today major stock markets in Asia are trading negative. Shanghai composite is low by 39.64 points to 2,099.83 along with Hang Seng that is trading lower by 6.15 points at 11,924.51 and South Korea''s Seoul Composite is low by 7.53 points at 1,119.98. Japan''s Nikkei is also low by 79.02 points at 7,297.10 and Singapore''s Straits Times is low by 21.79 points at 1,483.72.

Indian ADRs ended mostly lower. In technology sector, Satyam ended down by 1.10% along with Infosys by 0.04%. Further, Patni Computers lost 1.42% and Wipro closed down by 3.18%. In banking sector ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank lost 2.68% and 1.61% respectively. In telecommunication sector, MTNL advanced by 1.24% and Tata Communication gained 1.92%. However, Sterlite Industries dropped by 0.20%.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net sellers in equity and net buyers in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1,818.70 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 294.40 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,816.20 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 250.60 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (1.50) Crore and Rs 43.80 Crore respectively.

On Monday, the Indian rupee closed at 51.85/87, 0.38% stronger than its previous close of 51.63/65. The fall of stock markets pulled the rupee low on apprehensions of dollar inflow.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 22.79 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 2,201.43 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 48.75 Crore and total turnover was Rs 6,524.68 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with22651685, ICICI Bank with 19459652 shares, Suzlon Energy with 12342100 shares, Reliance Petro with 9127309 shares followed by HUL with 8065466 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 799468 with a total turnover of Rs 9,771.16 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 341837 with a total turnover of Rs 8,180.96 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1454658 with a total turnover of Rs 19,007.44 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 34494 and notional turnover was Rs 937.69 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,523 and resistance at 2,598 and BSE Sensex has support at 8,020 and resistance at 8,255.

Market seen opening strong; IIP, inflation data eyed

Key benchmark indices are likely to open sharply higher as they catch-up with global cues after a two-day break on 10 and 11 March 2009 on account of local holidays. The SGX Nifty futures for March 2009 series surged 87 points in Singapore. The index of industrial production (IIP) figures for January 2009 and inflation data for week ended 28 February 2009 to be announced by noon today, 12 March 2009 will be closely watched.

Most Asian markets were trading lower today, 12 March 2009, led by finance companies and automakers, amid renewed concern the deepening global recession will cause company earnings to deteriorate further. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were down by between 0.07% and 1.96%. However Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted index rose 0.24%.

US markets ended slightly higher on Wednesday, 11 March 2009 amid hope for additional government financial support for the tumbling economy. The Dow Jhones industrial average rose 3.91 points, or 0.06%, to 6,930.40. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index climbed 1.76 points, or 0.24%, to 721.36, while the Nasdaq Composite index increased 13.36 points, or 0.98%, to 1,371.64.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the bank was profitable in January and February 2009 bolstering speculation that the worst of the banking crisis may be over.

Back home, key benchmark indices dropped on Monday, 9 March 2009 as subdued-to-weak trend in global markets, a dismal US jobs data, a weak rupee and concerns of sustained outflow by foreign funds weighed on the domestic bourses. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 165.42 points or down 1.99%, to settle at 8,160.40, its lowest closing in more than three years. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 47 points or 1.79% to 2573.15, its lowest closing since 20 November 2008.

According to provisional data on NSE, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 84.94 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 299.72 crore on Monday, 9 March 2009.

The National Stock Exchange had earlier said that trading would continue in the normal course from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 despite Sun Outage between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST. The exchange has advised members to use alternative mode of connectivity instead of VSAT during the above mentioned period for continuing trading without any disruptions on account of Sun outage.

Earlier on 25 February 2009, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had informed the NSE that there would be Sun Outage from 5 March 2009 to 19 March 2009 between 11:45 IST to 12:25 IST due to which trading members may face connectivity problems at different times on different dates based on geographical location during this period.

Sideways movement may continue

The market is likely to witness sideways movement on the back of a strong intra-day volatile move. Stocks across the sectors along with heavyweights may gyrate sharply. Overnight marginal gain in the US indices and weak Asian markets in morning's trades may further dampen the investors' sentiment. On the technical side, the Nifty has a stiff resistance at 2600-2650 levels and the downside strong support at 2550-2500, while the Sensex could test higher levels of 8300 and has a likely support at 8000.

US indices ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones gaining 4 points to close at 6930 and the Nasdaq ended 13 points higher at 1372.

Most of the Indian ADR's fell on the US bourses. Rediff was the biggest loser and dropped over 4% followed Wipro declined 3.18%, while Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Patni Computer and Satyam were down around 1-2% each. However, VSNL soared 1.92% while MTNL and Dr Reddy's gained around 1% each.

Crude oil prices in the US market edged lower, with the Nymex light crude oil for April delivery down by $3.38 to close at $42.33 per barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for April series gained by $14.80 to settle at $910.70 an ounce.

Indian markets to up gap up

Indian markets are likely to open with a gap up since we have some ground to cover for the past two sessions. All markets were up between 5 and 6% in the previous trading session taking a breather from the positive cues from US markets. We need to see whether we can sustain early gains. Inflation for the week ended February 28 is expected at 2.34% as against 3.03% a week earlier. The Sensex has supports at 8090 and 8000 and resistances at 8380 and 8620. The Nifty has supports at 2550 and 2520 and resistances at 2640 and 2670.

Gold - things you should know

History of gold prices (in rupees):

1930: 180 per 10 gram
1940: 360 per 10 gram
1950: 1000 per 10 gram
1960: 1110 per 10 gram
1970: 1840 per 10 gram
1975: 5,400 per 10 gram
2000: 3,000 per 10 gram
2006: 5,400 per 10 gram
2009: 15,700 per 10 gram.

Gold surprisingly gave 300% returns from 1970 to 1975 when world suffered worst ever recession after great Depression. Will the history repeat? That is the reason behind current "Mad Gold rush". But if you invested in the Gold in 1975, your investment gave negative returns for the next 25 years.

Remember 2 things:

1. Gold generally trades in the lower range around March and July. Generally, it is the best time to buy gold and marriage season is the best time to sell God.

2. Below 11,000, Gold is a safe investment but above 15,000- it is only for traders but not for investors.

Future of Gold:

When stock markets are in down turn in 2002, Gold was at Rs 5,400 per 10 gram. Don't forget that Gold traded below 9,000 per 10 gram till 2007 means you might have got routine returns from Gold investment. But investors who made investments in gold in mid-2007 are now making 70% returns in just 20 months. But I don't know what will happen to
gold investors who bought it at above 15,000 but they remain in losses even after 3 years. Why? Gold will recede to 11,000 levels once equities make comeback. What happened to crude oil will repeat in case of gold also. Don't forget that Gold is not even an essential commodity. But Gold is a less volatile investment.

Examples:

1. Crude oil prices moved to $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs people gave $200 per barrel target. It is now trading below the fundamental price at $35 per barrel.

2. Sensex moved to 21,000 and analysts and analysts gave 30,000 target. It is now trading at 9,000 levels.

3. Real Estate prices reached astronomical levels in 2007 but people bought land as if there will be no land available for purchase in future.

Via Another Forum/Email

Disclaimer: Not VERIFIED

Gold Silver Update - March 9 2009

Gold std. (Rs/10gm) 15,501

Silver (Rs/kg) 22,382

Daily News Roundup - March 12 2009

Satyam Computers has set March 20 as the deadline for prospective investors to submit Expression of Interest (EoI) to pick 51% equity in the company. (BL)

TCS signs a multi-year contract with Infineon Technologies AG. (FE)

The Petroleum Ministry has asked GAIL (India) Ltd. to keep RIL's eastern offshore fields (D6 block) gas price, as one of the benchmarks, while negotiating the revised price for the Cairn India-operated Ravva/Ravva Satellite field. (BL)

The Planning Commission criticizes GAIL India for shifting focus from its core activity of gas transmission to non-core activities. (ET)

Infosys to hire 20,000 engineering graduates this year at over 8.3% higher salary offered last year. (ET)

ITC's Lifestyle retailing business targets 20% growth for its premium Wills Lifestyle brand in 2009-10. (ET)

Reliance Industries eyes tie-up with Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL to revive its shut petrol pumps. (FE)

Reliance Industries may tweak draft sales agreements to address concerns raised by fertilizer companies. (ET)

The Rihand Project of NTPC is set to expand in the next financial year under by adding two units of 500 MW each. (BS)

RCOM placed Rs3bn order with two Chinese equipment vendors, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corporation, for around 1mn plug-n-play USB modems. (BS)

R-ADAG company to invest Rs18bn for 1,500-km power link. (ET)

The UK government approved a grant of £27mn to Tata Group-owned Jaguar Land Rover for producing a new eco-friendly car. (BS)

Wipro Technologies' subsidiary Infocrossing has entered into a five-year contract to provide IT and infrastructure services delivery for CSG Systems International. (BS)

Tata Motors plans to ramp up production at Dharwad unit to 1,250-1,300 buses per month. (BS)

Ashok Leyland has increased number of working days at its manufacturing units to five from three. (BS)

Ashok Leyland is increasing its CV manufacturing capacity to 150,000 by end of Mar '10. (BS)

Tech Mahindra is in talks to buy Bangalore-based niche telecom solutions player Sloka Telecom. (ET)

TVS Motors plans to launch a unisex scooter in FY10. (ET)

Pfizer-Aurobindo pact may expand to CIS and the Asian market. (BS)

SBI to purchase 4,000 ATMs to ramp up network. (ET)

Pfizer to set up 600 smoking cessation clinics in two years. (ET)

Allahabad Bank plans to raise Rs10bn through bonds by the end of March. (BS)

Dabur India decides to split its sales force and stockists beginning April 1, 2009 with focus on three specific categories, home and personal care, health care and foods. (ET)

Coal India is likely to award the turnkey contract for its Rs25bn project to develop seven underground coal mines with an estimated reserve of over 400MT by end of this year. (FE)

HCL Infosystems announced a tie-up with Korean major Nautilus Hyosung, to provide customized automated teller machines solutions in India. (FE)

Barun Das, CEO of Zee News, has said that the company will put expansion plans on hold due to the current economic slowdown. (BS)

BPCL has slashed prices of its branded premium petrol and diesel with immediate effect. (ET)

Godrej Industries, the holding company of Godrej Consumer Products has acquired an additional 2.5% stake from group firms like Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing and Godrej Investments. (ET)

Bajaj Electricals launched a premium range of home appliances – Bajaj Platina in the premium lifestyle category. (ET)

Hewlett-Packard and Computer Sciences Corporation are seen evaluating the possibility of acquiring a majority stake in Satyam. (ET)

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance could break even in two years. (ET)

Draximage, a subsidiary of Jubilant Organosys, has said it has entered into an agreement with France-based Guerbet for distribution of its nuclear medicine products in the European markets. (BL)

Jyothy Labs launches 'Fabric Spa', a laundry business set up with an initial cost of Rs400mn. (ET)

PVR to add 50 screens in 2009-10. (ET)

GE Security and Wipro Infotech signs an agreement for physical security solutions in India. (ET)

Government may miss RBI's growth target, says Dr. D.V. Subbarao. (ET)

The Maharashtra government has decided to levy a fee to grant its consent to companies and other bodies to raise money against leasing government owned land. (BS)

At least nine non-metro airports may get to charge Rs300-350 per passenger, as user development fee (UDF). (ET)

The Government is planning to issue tax-free bonds worth up to Rs100bn to the general public every year until 2020. (ET)

The Government may consider a further interest subsidy on loans to companies in select sectors. (ET)

ICAI has deferred a decision on relaxing AS 11, which mandates MTM provisioning in the profit and loss account for foreign exchange-related gains and losses. (BS)

The Wireless Planning and Co-ordination wing of the Department of Telecom has finalised the National Frequency Allocation Plan, which will be the guiding policy for all spectrum allocation in the country. (BL)

GSM operators added 9.1mn new subscribers in February. (BL)

TRAI endorses 3-year lock in on stake sale by new telcos. (ET)

Bulls on the front foot!

Morning means one more innings given to play and win what you missed yesterday.

Sehwag's fastest century by an Indian may inspire many a bull to launch an offensive. We missed the global rally, as the world's major stock markets rebounded from recent reversals while we celebrated Id and Holi and of course India's victory in New Zealand. Majority of the gains were driven by Citigroup's remarks that it was profitable in the first two months of 2009. As a result, we may see some bounce early on in today's session.

However, anxiety ahead of IIP and Inflation data, coupled with mixed global cues could spoil the party for bulls later. IIP is expected to be flat to marginally negative. A bigger fall in IIP may heighten worries over the health of an already sluggish economy.

Meanwhile, inflation is expected to fall sharply from 3.03% to around 2.3%. While that may be good news on one hand, it also points to a worsening macro-economic situation. Guard your wicket as coming on the front foot could often get you stumped.

A short-term spurt shouldn't lead one to believe that we are out of the woods. We remain in a bear market, and such rallies are only to be expected. A sustained recovery will not take place in the absence of stability in western financial system.

FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Monday at Rs849.4mn, while the local institutions pumped in close to Rs3bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs4.42bn. On Friday, FIIs were net sellers of just Rs16mn. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs1.29bn on the same day.

US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the blue chip indices nearly unchanged while the technology shares extended Tuesday's big rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to 6,930.40. The S&P 500 index added 2 points, or 0.2%, to 721.36. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 13 points, or 1%, to 1,371.64. It has now gained 8% in two sessions.

Stocks rallied in early trades and gyrated through the afternoon before taking another shot at a rally towards the close.

The US market had rallied on Tuesday, with all three major benchmarks posting their biggest gains of the year. Citigroup eased some concerns about its future after saying that it was profitable in the first two months of the year, spurring optimism that banks are recovering from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Financial stocks also gained after regulators said they may reinstate the "uptick rule" that stops short sellers from driving a stock lower.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended Monday's session at 12-year lows and the Nasdaq at 6-year lows, following over two months of selling on nagging worries about the financial mess and its fallout on the global economy.

As of Wednesday, the Dow is down 21% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 20% and the Nasdaq has lost 14%.

Financial stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday, but off the day's high, as investors braced for the congressional hearing on Thursday on the mark-to-market accounting.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that he sees modest signs of an economic recovery and that he supports a plan to create a US risk regulator. The bank's shares gained 4.6%. Citi, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs all advanced.

Among the technology stocks, Apple, Dell, eBay and Google led the rally. Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HP) surged 5.8% on a UBS upgrade.

The February budget deficit in the US increased by US$192.8bn in February, short of forecasts for a rise of US$205bn. The deficit for the first five months of fiscal 2009 rose to a record US$764.5bn, over US$300bn more than the entire deficit for fiscal 2008, which was a record.

Four US states' unemployment rate jumped more than 10% in January. The states are Michigan, South Carolina, Rhode Island and California. In January, 49 states and the District of Columbia saw higher month-over-month jobless rates. Only Louisiana bucked the trend.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking ahead of the G-20 financial summit next month, urged global leaders to increase their efforts to help the world economy amid a deepening recession.

Treasury prices inched lower, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.02% from 3% on Tuesday.

Lending rates were unchanged. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.33%, while the overnight Libor rate held at 0.33%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

US light crude oil for April delivery settled down US$3.38 to US$42.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped after the government's report showed crude supplies rose last week, while Chinese consumption dropped.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose US$14.80 to settle at US$910.70 an ounce.

Thursday brings reports on February retail sales, weekly jobless claims, January business inventories and the Congressional hearing on mark-to-market accounting.

After the market closed, Freddie Mac said that it will tap an additional $30.8bn in federal aid after loan holdings and other assets deteriorated.

European stocks inched higher, paced by gains in banks such as Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index added 0.2% to 166.24, off earlier highs, after posting the best one-day percentage rise in four months on Tuesday.

Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.7% to 3,914.10 and the French CAC-40 index added 04% to 2,674.20.

After staging a smart come back on Friday, it was another day of losses for the Indian equity markets. Markets came under renewed selling pressure as traders and investors preferred to stay light ahead of holidays on Tuesday and Wednesday. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 165 points to close at 8,160 and the NSE Nifty slipped 47 at 2,573.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 27 stocks ended in negative terrain and only 3 stocks ended in the green. ITC, Reliance Industries, SBI, Infosys, L&T and Bharti were among the major laggards. Bucking the negative trend were, HDFC, Maruti and M&M.

Shares of Lupin advanced by 1.1% to Rs593 after the company announced a strategic tie-up with top academic echelons - Manipal University (Karnataka), Birla Institute of Technology and Sciences (Pilani) and Pune University - in a move to allow employees of Lupin's R&D wing, Lupin Research Park, to pursue their industry specific research while concurrently working with Lupin. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs601 and a low of Rs574 and recorded volumes of over 35,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Jindal Steel & Power gained by half a percent to Rs1004 after reports stated that Bolivia plans to take 600 acres of private land that contains part of the El Mutun iron ore deposit and deliver it to the company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1029 and a low of Rs990 and recorded volumes of over 0.2mn shares on BSE.

Shares of United Spirits gained by 3% to Rs596 following reports that four global spirits makers including Diageo have shown interest in acquiring stake in the company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs607 and a low of Rs574 and recorded volumes of over 1.2mn shares on BSE.

Shares of SpiceJet surged to higher altitude after reports stated that the low-cost airliner is in talks with the GoAir for either a merger or to acquire a controlling stake in the company.

CEO Sanjay Aggarwal stated that, SpiceJet wanted to set up a regional airline to connect smaller cities in the country. Apart from Delhi and Mumbai, GoAir currently flies to smaller towns like Goa, Jammu, Srinagar, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Kochi.

The stock ended at Rs13.3 rising by over 10% hitting an intra-day high of Rs14.6 and a low of Rs12.7 and recorded volumes of over 1.7mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Satyam Computer rallied by over 15% to Rs48.7 after the company announced that it invited bidders interested in buying a majority stake. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs50 and a low of Rs34 and recorded volumes of over 3.5mn shares on BSE.

Shares of BHEL slipped by 1% to Rs1300. The company announced that it won a major contract for the manufacture and supply of generator transformers against stiff competition from European MNCs and Indian companies.

Valued at Rs810mn, the order has been placed by Powergen Infrastructure for the upcoming 1,980 MW (3x660 MW) Tirora Thermal Power Project of Adani Power Maharashtra Ltd. (APML). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1307 and a low of Rs1278 and recorded volumes of over 0.2mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Tata Motors slipped by 2% to Rs136 after the company announced that its promoters pledged total 13.42% stake. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs141 and a low of Rs135 and recorded volumes of over 0.5mn shares on BSE.

With markets to remain shut on Tuesday and Wednesday, all eyes would be on the inflation and IIP data to be released on Thursday when markets resume trading.