Friday, November 30, 2007
FIIs net sellers of Rs 1,113cr in cash market
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12:10 AM
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Thursday, November 29, 2007
Post Market Commentary
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7:14 PM
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Market Close: Markets settled in green post F&O expiry
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7:14 PM
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Sensex up on US interest rate-cut hope
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7:13 PM
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Sensex settles a tad above 19,000
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7:12 PM
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Another interest rate cut hope cheer investors
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9:46 AM
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Pre Market Watch
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9:37 AM
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Pyramid Saimira - acquisition
Dimples Cine controls a major chunk of ad agency market
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9:35 AM
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Winter winds.will bears go into hibernation?
The National Stock Exchange included 15 new stocks in the F&O segment from November. 30, 2007. Stocks gained momentum after the announcement. Jindal Saw surged by over 7.5% to Rs842, KPIT Cummins rose over 17% to Rs117, DCB rallied by over 15% to Rs143, Hindustan Zinc spurred by over 11% to Rs814 were among the top gainers.
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9:34 AM
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Stocks added to futures and options
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9:34 AM
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Crude at lowest level in a month
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9:33 AM
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Daily Technical Analysis
Resistance & Support The index is facing resistance around the 10 dma = 5725 and 20 dma = 5754; intra-day rise is facing stiff resistance around the 5725-5754 band. On the downside, index has support around 5515 and lower support is around 5485(50dma) [dma= daily simple moving average].
Conclusion Intra-day pullback will face resistance around 5725-5754 band.
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9:33 AM
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RPL stake sale, volume data don't match
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9:32 AM
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Bharat Forge
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9:32 AM
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FIIs in selling mode
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9:31 AM
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Nifty November futures at premium
Nifty November 2007 futures were at 5638.55, at a premium of 21 points as compared to spot closing of 5617.55.
NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 86,287.52 crore, which was higher than Rs 75,192.11 crore on Tuesday, 27 November 2007.
Reliance Natural Resources November 2007 futures were at discount, at Rs 156.15, compared to the spot closing of Rs 156.45.
GMR Infrastructure November 2007 futures were at premium, at Rs 248.40, compared to the spot closing of Rs 247.65.
State Bank of India November 2007 futures were at discount, at Rs 2248.50 compared to the spot closing of Rs 2252.40.
In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 80.6 points or 1.41% at 5617.55.
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9:31 AM
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BHEL, Banking, Real Estate
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Book Out
Current market price: Rs84
Hexaware Technologies (Hexaware) has reported that it has come to the management's notice that one of the officials from its treasury department has conducted fraudulent foreign exchange (forex) transactions over the past few months. There are a total of 11 such transactions spread across various currencies such as the US Dollar, euro, pound, yen and Swiss Franc. The board of directors has appointed an internal committee to investigate the matter and has suspended the official in question. Hexaware plans provisions of $20-25 million to cover any potential loss as a result of these transactions.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs2,000
Current market price: Rs1,795
With the company bagging the Taj Expressway project accompanied by a land parcel of 6,250 acres, the stock has received a tremendous re-rating. As we have mentioned in our earlier reports, we expect the stock price to move up as and when clarity emerges on the development of real estate sector. The ICICI deal now only reinforces our bullishness on the stock. We maintain our buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs2,000 per share.
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs3,289
Current market price: Rs2,725
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) had a spectacular order inflow in the past 18 months. In H1FY2008, the company's order inflow rose by 74% year on year (yoy). At the end of Q2FY2008, BHEL has an order backlog of Rs72,600 crore (4.2x FY2007 revenues), which represented a staggering increase of 59% yoy.
*
In a strategic move, BHEL signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) for a joint venture (JV) to set the first 2x800 mega-watt (MW) super-critical power project in Tamil Nadu. We believe this tie-up is positive for the company in two ways. First, the equity stake in the JV would ensure BHEL as a supplier for the super-critical project. Second, the deployment of surplus cash-on-book would yield better returns from the investments made in the JV.
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After National Thermal Power Corporation's (NTPC) Barh-II project, BHEL has emerged as the sole bidder for the AP Genco project at Krishnapatnam, which is a 2x800MW project based on super-critical technology. We expect the order flow in the super critical space to remain buoyant for the company going forward.
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The union cabinet has approved BHEL's proposal of taking over Bharat Heavy Plate & Vessels Ltd (BHPV), an engineering company catering to oil and gas sector. The company's current turnover stands at Rs150 crore, and the BHEL's management believes BHPV's turnover has a potential to grow to Rs1,000 crore plus.
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For Q2FY2008, the nets sales of BHEL grew by 18.7% to Rs3,965.4 crore, which was slightly below expectations. The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 380 basis points, which came in as a positive surprise. Led by better OPM and higher other income, the net profit (before extra-ordinary items) increased by 57.5% to Rs567 crore. The profit growth was above expectations.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its annual report on the trend and progress of banking in India 2006-07 has highlighted the improving resilience of Indian banks' operations to changing macro-economic conditions. It has also stated that the incremental credit-deposit ratio is on the decline and credit growth has shown some moderation in the real estate and retail sectors. Since the credit growth has been strong in the past few years, some minor deterioration could be expected in the asset quality of banks going forward. The medium-term risk for the domestic banking sector could emanate mainly from global developments (US subprime mortgage saga) and the fall-out of the same in the other asset classes (equity, real estate). However, the main challenge facing domestic banks at this juncture remains raising resources to maintain their growth momentum.
According to media reports, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Wadhwa Builders and TCG Infrastructure--Hiranandani Construction consortium emerged as the leading bidders for the three Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) plots measuring 75,350 square meter (sm). The value of the top three bids was Rs2,790 crore, which amounts to an average price of Rs34,424 per square feet (sf).
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9:30 AM
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Equities end weak after strong open
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3:29 AM
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New F&O Stocks
2 KPIT CUMMINS INFOSYSTEMS KPIT
3 DEVELOP CREDIT BANK LTD DCB
5 MOTOR INDUSTRIES CO LTD MICO
7 NIIT LIMITED NIITLTD
8 GREAT OFFSHORE LTD GTOFFSHORE
9 WIRE & WIRELESS (I) LTD. WWIL
10 REDINGTON (INDIA) LTD. REDINGTON
11 NETWORK 18 FINCAP LTD. NETWORK18
12 GLOBAL BROADCAST NEWS LTD GBN
13 ISPAT INDUSTRIES LIMITED ISPATIND
14 HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION HINDOILEXP
15 GITANJALI GEMS LIMITED GITANJALI
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3:27 AM
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Market Close: Weak close ahead FnO expiry
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3:25 AM
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Auto stocks surge in a subdued market
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3:23 AM
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Sensex falls below 19,000 in volatile trade
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3:22 AM
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TCI, Balaji Telefilms
Transport Corporation of India
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Book Profit
Current market price: Rs130
Book profit
Result highlights
* For Q2FY2008, Transport Corporation of India's (TCI) profit after tax (PAT) declined by 26% year on year (yoy) to Rs4.8 crore on account of slack performance at operating level.
* The topline grew by a modest 10% yoy to Rs300.4 crore due to a slowdown in the transportation revenues and hiving off of the fuel stations.
* Following its performance trend in the previous quarters, the Express (XPS) division and the Supply Chain Division (SCD) division recorded a robust topline growth of 20.7% yoy and 358% yoy to Rs80 crore and Rs37.1 crore respectively.
* The margin of the transport division improved marginally by 10 basis points to 2.3% in the quarter. The margins of the XPS and the SCM division witnessed a sharp fall of 110 basis points and 40 basis points to 5.8% and 3.2% respectively. The margin of shipping division reduced drastically by 1,320 basis points to 7% as the company incurred higher expenditure towards the dry-docking of four ships. But on account of higher margin in the wind power division and hiving off of the lower-margin trading division, the overall earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin was reduced by 100 basis points to 4.5%. The EBIT grew by 9.6% yoy to Rs13.64 crore.
* The interest cost increased by 88% yoy to Rs4.4 crore as the company borrowed debt to finance its capital expenditure (capex). Whereas its depreciation provision increased by 47% yoy to Rs6.9 crore as the company added assets during the year.
* The tax provision stood much higher at 39.6%, which led the PAT decline by 26% yoy to Rs4.8 crore.
* The company placed Rs53 crore to Fidelity Investments International at Rs105 per share, whereas the next tranche is expected to be placed in the next couple of months. The capex will drive the revenues of the company going ahead.
* As the first-half performance of the company was much below our expectations, we are downgrading our profit estimate for FY2008 by 18% to Rs32 crore and that for FY2009 by 3.1% to Rs47.1 crore.
* As we know, TCI is transforming itself from a pure play transportation company to an integrated company in the logistics space. The company is incurring a capex of Rs440 crore over FY2007-10 to augment its warehouse capacity, to increase its truck fleet and to buy more ships. Currently the margins of its two new focus businessesExpress and Supply Chainhave not stabilised as the company is in the expansion phase. The courier business is still not profitable and is expected to break-even only in the next fiscal year. Therefore the numbers have been much lower than expected. At the current market price of Rs128, the stock trades at 29x its FY2008 earnings per share (EPS) and 21x its FY2009 EPS. We believe even after factoring the upside from real estate, the current valuations are expensive considering the historical price-earnings ratio (P/E) of the company. Thus taking cognisance of the steep valuations and lower than expected performance of the company, we recommend investors to book profits.
Balaji Telefilms
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs427
Current market price: Rs358
Price target revised to Rs427
Key points
- Balaji Motion Pictures Ltd (BMPL) delivered two blockbusters in 2007Shootout at Lokhandwala and Bhool Bhulaiya. Buoyed by the success of this venture, the management aims to produce and/or distribute at least ten movies a year from FY2009 as against five movies in FY2008.
- While Balaji Telefilms Ltd (BTL) is adequately funded for further ramping up BMPL's movie business and though the management has not affirmed news reports of BTL divesting its stake in BMPL, there remains a strong possibility of BTL unlocking value in BMPL.
- As expected, with the launch of new channels in Hindi entertainment genre, BTL is scaling up its TV content business. Kahe naa kahe was launched on 9x in November 2007, Kuchh is tara and Kya dil mein hai are to be launched on Sony (from November 26) and 9x (in December 2007) respectively.
- We have revised our estimates for FY2008 and FY2009 to factor the new show launches and the management's aggressive plans for ramping up the movie business. Consequently, we are also revising our price target on the stock to Rs427 based on the sum-of-the-parts method and maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.
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3:14 AM
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Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Nifty futures at premium
Nifty November 2007 futures were at 5727, at a premium of 28.85 points as compared to spot closing of 5698.15.
NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 75,192.11 crore, which was lower than Rs 75,903.04 crore on Monday, 26 November 2007.
Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) November 2007 futures were at premium, at Rs 212.40, compared to the spot closing of Rs 209.30.
Steel Authority of India (Sail) November 2007 futures were at premium, at Rs 265.35 compared to the spot closing of Rs 264.
Essar Oil November 2007 futures were near spot price at Rs 221.75, compared to the spot closing of Rs 221.65.
In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 33.55 points or 0.59% at 5698.15
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9:46 AM
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Crude at lowest level in a week
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9:45 AM
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SEBI probe on RPL?
A senior official of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), who did not wish to be named, confirmed that the capital market regulator has called for trading data from stock exchanges and is "looking into the matter". "I can't share with you any information at this point as this is confidential," the official added. He said Sebi routinely looks into stocks that show unusual movements.
Between 1 November and 6 November, substantial positions were built in RPL futures on NSE, as a result of which the prescribed marketwide position limit was breached.
A futures contract is an exchange-traded one requiring the delivery of shares at a specified price on a specified future date.
This was accompanied by a drop of 25.3% in RPL's share price from its intra-day high of Rs295 on 1 November, the day open interest started building up significantly, to Rs220.35 on 6 November.
It is this phenomenon that Sebi is investigating because the large number of positions would suggest that there were too many bets being placed that the RPL stock would fall.
The sale raised Rs4,023 crore, at a price of Rs223 a share.
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9:45 AM
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