Thursday, November 29, 2007

RPL stake sale, volume data don't match

The numbers in the Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL) counter simply don't add up. Last week, an unusual event took place on the domestic stock exchanges. Between November 14 and 23, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) unloaded 18.04 crore shares worth over Rs 4,000 crore.
 
It was said to be the largest ever unloading of shares by a parent company in its subsidiary in the open market.
 
But a peek at the trading data and a little bit of number-crunching reveal a different story.
 
If the traded data of RPL shares provided by the BSE and the NSE are to be believed, the truth is something else. According to an official statement late last Friday, RIL sold 18.04 crore RPL shares for Rs 4,023 crore, at an average price of Rs 223.
 
The company revealed this much after exchange officials went home on a two-day holiday. The official RIL communiqué appeared on the stock exchange notice board on Monday, as Saturday was an official holiday.
 
As per the communication to the exchanges, the shares were sold between November 14 and November 23. A BSE notice said it was sold on the two dates.
 
Market insiders say the probability of the sale of over 18 crore shares in two days is highly doubtful, if one takes the number of trades done in the two days into account.
 
The RPL scrip is listed only on BSE and NSE. A microscopic look at the trading turnover in the two exchanges on November 14 and 23 reveals that the RPL counter did not transact trades for so many shares on those two days.
 
On November 14, the shares traded on the NSE were in the region of 6.57 crore shares. And it was lesser on the BSE — 3.07 crore shares.
 
The deliverable quantity was even less at 1.19 crore on the BSE, against 2.56 crore on the NSE. How then can RIL claim that it sold 11.42 crore shares on November 14?
 
The same is true for November 23 when RIL is said to have sold 6.64 crore shares. On that day, the NSE recorded a traded turnover in the RPL counter of 3.53 crore shares that ended in deliveries for only 1.05 crore shares.
 
On the BSE, the traded turnover was 1.75 crore shares, attracting a delivery of a piffling 51.46 lakh shares.
 
So, is there a gaping hole in RIL's information to the exchanges? Or is it the exchanges that have got their numbers wrong?
 
Even if we add the entire traded turnover from November 14 to November 23 in the two exchanges, the numbers don't add up. The total deliveries of the two exchanges together amounted to only 17.55 crore shares.
 
Remember, RIL said it sold 18.04 crore shares. Even if RIL was the only seller in the marketplace between November 14 and 23, the shares traded in the cash segment were lesser than what RIL sold as per their press statement and notice to the exchanges.
 
Since the RPL counter has reasonable depth and there are many traders, this is almost impossible.
 
Have the premier stock exchanges goofed up? Will the small investor ever know what transpired and whether the exchanges have been providing the correct information on their trading screens?
 
A clue may lie in the November 1 spike when RPL's share price touched Rs 295 on the BSE, and the two exchanges' combined traded turnover was pegged at 20.18 crore shares, well above the 18.04 crore shares that RIL sold.
 
However, shares delivered at the two exchanges amounted to 4.46 crore only. On November 6, the total traded turnover of shares was 22.66 crore and shares delivered were 8.87 crore.
 
So, this really begs a billion dollar (Rs 4,000 crore) question: When and where were the RPL shares traded? Is it possible that the shares were sold even before November 14. Not likely, if the RIL statement to the stock exchanges is to be believed.
 
via DNA News

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