Motherson Sumi System
Research: Merrill Lynch
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 96
Merrill Lynch initiates coverage on Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) with a 'buy' rating due to the following reasons: (1) 23%+ compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS during FY07-FY10E and sustainability of 20%+ earnings growth over a longer period; (2) 560 bps expansion in return on equity capital (RoCE); and (3) new business ventures.
Expansion of the rubber components business following the recent acquisition of Empire Rubber in Australia and beginning of commercial production of mobile phone plastics parts business in H2 FY08 are the key growth drivers, apart from the 22% CAGR in wiring harness revenues. There is significant possibility of earnings surprise on account of: (1) management guidance of 43% CAGR in earnings being significantly higher than expectations; and (2) likely benefit of 18% fall in copper prices in the next six quarters, compared to Merrill Lynch's assumption of flat prices. The stock is trading at 11.97x FY09E EV/EBITDA — a discount of 15% and 31%, respectively, compared to Mico and Cummins India, despite better growth prospects and good track record. At management-guided EPS of Rs 9.8 in FY10E, the stock trades at 9.7x earnings.
Sesa Goa
Research: Buy
Rating: Goldman Sachs
CMP: Rs 2,111
GOLDMAN Sachs initiates coverage on Sesa Goa with a 'buy' rating. Sesa Goa is India's largest exporter of iron ore in the private sector and is a direct play on iron ore price negotiations. With sustained tightness in the iron ore market, it will be a direct beneficiary of higher iron ore prices. High margins, attractive returns, debt-free balance sheet, strong free cash flow generation and cash pile of Rs 220 per share are added positives. The non-iron ore businesses will benefit due to a robust outlook on pig iron and met coke prices. Reining in logistics costs will remain a key focus area. Additionally, after the completion of the ongoing open offer, the new promoters, Vedanta Resources, may deploy surplus cash reserves. Sesa Goa is likely to deliver 40% earnings CAGR over FY07-FY09E on the back of a bullish iron ore price outlook and modest volume growth. Potential announcements on strategic use of the cash pile or expansion plans, post completion of the open offer by Vedanta Resources, can provide upside triggers. At 2.8x one-year forward EV/EBITDA — which is at a 50% discount to global mining companies — the stock is attractively valued.
Tata Motors
Research: Citigroup
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 694
Citigroup has put a 'buy' recommended on Tata Motors. The management guidance points to a modest revival in truck sales in H2 FY08E, which implies that overall sales for FY08 will be flat or may register modest growth. Truck operators' profitability remains healthy, despite rise in interest rates. Freight rates continue to remain stable. The company will deploy Rs 8,000 crore over the next three years to launch new platforms in passenger cars and trucks.
The small car remains on schedule and will be launched in mid-CY08 (H1 FY09E). The management has said Tata Motors will start the process of demerging its subsidiaries by end FY08E, but this is still at a nascent stage. Brand, technology and markets are the key decision variables. Cost pressures (steel accounts for 45% of input costs) will continue to affect margins. Cost reduction exercise is nearly complete — the company has achieved Rs 970 crore of its stated Rs 1,000-crore cost-cutting exercise. Hikes in CV prices (~1-1.5%) undertaken in early FY08 will mitigate (but not offset) the impact of cost pressures.
Binani Cement
Research: JP Morgan
Rating: Overweight
CMP: Rs 79
JP Morgan initiates coverage on Binani Cement (BCL) with an 'overweight' rating. BCL appears to be at the cusp of aggressive volume growth. Cement production is likely to witness a CAGR of 44% over FY07-09. Increasing volumes, coupled with robust prices (in the current year) should drive 44% EBITDA growth and 40% EPS growth in FY08, as per JP Morgan's estimates. In FY09, aggressive volume growth is likely to help offset the negative impact of an estimated 6% YoY decline in cement prices. A near 10% CAGR in domestic demand and benefits of consolidation should provide a higher floor to domestic prices, relative to previous cycles. BCL's valuation looks compelling — the stock is trading at a near 40% valuation discount to mainstream cement players.
IDBI Bank
Research: ICICI Direct
Rating: Outperformer
CMP: Rs 131
ICICI Direct initiates coverage on IDBI Bank with an outperformer rating. IDBI Bank has transformed itself from a development financial institution (DFI) to an active participant in the booming banking and financial services space.
The amalgamation of United Western Bank with IDBI Bank has given the latter the much-needed branch network to enhance its retail presence. This, coupled with unlocking of value in its investments, is expected to lead to a surge in earnings. ICICI Direct expects earnings to witness a CAGR of 19% over FY07-09E to Rs 885 crore. IDBI Bank has a huge investment portfolio of quoted and unquoted equity stocks. It can unlock the value from these stocks and boost its profitability.
The value of the quoted and unquoted equity book is Rs 52 per share of IDBI Bank. The bank is expected to improve its core business gradually with net interest margins (NIMs) expanding from 0.48% in FY06 to 0.74% in FY07 and further to 1.07% by FY09E. At the current price around of Rs 130, the stock is trading at 1.3 its FY09E adjusted book value (ABV) and 10.6x its FY09E EPS of Rs 12.2. Based on a theoretical book value multiple of 0.9x its FY09E ABV, the value of its core banking business comes to Rs 87 per share. Its huge investment portfolio is valued at Rs 52 per share and subsidiaries at Rs 17 per share.
Godavari Chemicals & Fert
Research: IDBI Capital
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 129
Godavari Chemicals and Fertilizers — promoted jointly by Andhra Pradesh State Co-operatives (APSC) and the Indian Farm and Fertilizer Co-operative (IFFCO) — is one of the frontline players in the fertiliser segment in the South. It is now a part of Chennai-based Murugappa group, which acquired the stake of the Andhra Pradesh government in the process of disinvestment through Coromandel Fertilizers. Godavari is one of the leading producers of DAP and has a market share of 9% across India, while it has a 73% share in Andhra Pradesh.
During FY07, it increased the sale of traded products like water-soluble fertilisers, micronutrients and G-Sulphur. It has an approximate capacity of 1.2 million metric tones (mt), with a proximity to seaport and good infrastructure. Production during FY07 was highest at 11.35 lakh tonnes, when the average output increased to 72 mt per hour against 65 mt per hour. However, production was hit due to constraints of phosphoric acid supply. The company will expand its capacity by 4.25 lakh mt by June '09. It has also completed construction of 10,000 mt atmospheric ammonia at Kakinada. Godavari Chemicals has put up a good show for Q1 FY08 with regard to operating and net profits. Its revenue, at Rs 17.3 crore, was down by 35% YoY. PAT was Rs 1.3 crore, against a loss of Rs 40 lakh in the year-ago period. The stock is currently trading at 6x its trailing 12 months EPS of Rs 20.65.
Research: Merrill Lynch
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 96
Merrill Lynch initiates coverage on Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) with a 'buy' rating due to the following reasons: (1) 23%+ compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS during FY07-FY10E and sustainability of 20%+ earnings growth over a longer period; (2) 560 bps expansion in return on equity capital (RoCE); and (3) new business ventures.
Expansion of the rubber components business following the recent acquisition of Empire Rubber in Australia and beginning of commercial production of mobile phone plastics parts business in H2 FY08 are the key growth drivers, apart from the 22% CAGR in wiring harness revenues. There is significant possibility of earnings surprise on account of: (1) management guidance of 43% CAGR in earnings being significantly higher than expectations; and (2) likely benefit of 18% fall in copper prices in the next six quarters, compared to Merrill Lynch's assumption of flat prices. The stock is trading at 11.97x FY09E EV/EBITDA — a discount of 15% and 31%, respectively, compared to Mico and Cummins India, despite better growth prospects and good track record. At management-guided EPS of Rs 9.8 in FY10E, the stock trades at 9.7x earnings.
Sesa Goa
Research: Buy
Rating: Goldman Sachs
CMP: Rs 2,111
GOLDMAN Sachs initiates coverage on Sesa Goa with a 'buy' rating. Sesa Goa is India's largest exporter of iron ore in the private sector and is a direct play on iron ore price negotiations. With sustained tightness in the iron ore market, it will be a direct beneficiary of higher iron ore prices. High margins, attractive returns, debt-free balance sheet, strong free cash flow generation and cash pile of Rs 220 per share are added positives. The non-iron ore businesses will benefit due to a robust outlook on pig iron and met coke prices. Reining in logistics costs will remain a key focus area. Additionally, after the completion of the ongoing open offer, the new promoters, Vedanta Resources, may deploy surplus cash reserves. Sesa Goa is likely to deliver 40% earnings CAGR over FY07-FY09E on the back of a bullish iron ore price outlook and modest volume growth. Potential announcements on strategic use of the cash pile or expansion plans, post completion of the open offer by Vedanta Resources, can provide upside triggers. At 2.8x one-year forward EV/EBITDA — which is at a 50% discount to global mining companies — the stock is attractively valued.
Tata Motors
Research: Citigroup
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 694
Citigroup has put a 'buy' recommended on Tata Motors. The management guidance points to a modest revival in truck sales in H2 FY08E, which implies that overall sales for FY08 will be flat or may register modest growth. Truck operators' profitability remains healthy, despite rise in interest rates. Freight rates continue to remain stable. The company will deploy Rs 8,000 crore over the next three years to launch new platforms in passenger cars and trucks.
The small car remains on schedule and will be launched in mid-CY08 (H1 FY09E). The management has said Tata Motors will start the process of demerging its subsidiaries by end FY08E, but this is still at a nascent stage. Brand, technology and markets are the key decision variables. Cost pressures (steel accounts for 45% of input costs) will continue to affect margins. Cost reduction exercise is nearly complete — the company has achieved Rs 970 crore of its stated Rs 1,000-crore cost-cutting exercise. Hikes in CV prices (~1-1.5%) undertaken in early FY08 will mitigate (but not offset) the impact of cost pressures.
Binani Cement
Research: JP Morgan
Rating: Overweight
CMP: Rs 79
JP Morgan initiates coverage on Binani Cement (BCL) with an 'overweight' rating. BCL appears to be at the cusp of aggressive volume growth. Cement production is likely to witness a CAGR of 44% over FY07-09. Increasing volumes, coupled with robust prices (in the current year) should drive 44% EBITDA growth and 40% EPS growth in FY08, as per JP Morgan's estimates. In FY09, aggressive volume growth is likely to help offset the negative impact of an estimated 6% YoY decline in cement prices. A near 10% CAGR in domestic demand and benefits of consolidation should provide a higher floor to domestic prices, relative to previous cycles. BCL's valuation looks compelling — the stock is trading at a near 40% valuation discount to mainstream cement players.
IDBI Bank
Research: ICICI Direct
Rating: Outperformer
CMP: Rs 131
ICICI Direct initiates coverage on IDBI Bank with an outperformer rating. IDBI Bank has transformed itself from a development financial institution (DFI) to an active participant in the booming banking and financial services space.
The amalgamation of United Western Bank with IDBI Bank has given the latter the much-needed branch network to enhance its retail presence. This, coupled with unlocking of value in its investments, is expected to lead to a surge in earnings. ICICI Direct expects earnings to witness a CAGR of 19% over FY07-09E to Rs 885 crore. IDBI Bank has a huge investment portfolio of quoted and unquoted equity stocks. It can unlock the value from these stocks and boost its profitability.
The value of the quoted and unquoted equity book is Rs 52 per share of IDBI Bank. The bank is expected to improve its core business gradually with net interest margins (NIMs) expanding from 0.48% in FY06 to 0.74% in FY07 and further to 1.07% by FY09E. At the current price around of Rs 130, the stock is trading at 1.3 its FY09E adjusted book value (ABV) and 10.6x its FY09E EPS of Rs 12.2. Based on a theoretical book value multiple of 0.9x its FY09E ABV, the value of its core banking business comes to Rs 87 per share. Its huge investment portfolio is valued at Rs 52 per share and subsidiaries at Rs 17 per share.
Godavari Chemicals & Fert
Research: IDBI Capital
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 129
Godavari Chemicals and Fertilizers — promoted jointly by Andhra Pradesh State Co-operatives (APSC) and the Indian Farm and Fertilizer Co-operative (IFFCO) — is one of the frontline players in the fertiliser segment in the South. It is now a part of Chennai-based Murugappa group, which acquired the stake of the Andhra Pradesh government in the process of disinvestment through Coromandel Fertilizers. Godavari is one of the leading producers of DAP and has a market share of 9% across India, while it has a 73% share in Andhra Pradesh.
During FY07, it increased the sale of traded products like water-soluble fertilisers, micronutrients and G-Sulphur. It has an approximate capacity of 1.2 million metric tones (mt), with a proximity to seaport and good infrastructure. Production during FY07 was highest at 11.35 lakh tonnes, when the average output increased to 72 mt per hour against 65 mt per hour. However, production was hit due to constraints of phosphoric acid supply. The company will expand its capacity by 4.25 lakh mt by June '09. It has also completed construction of 10,000 mt atmospheric ammonia at Kakinada. Godavari Chemicals has put up a good show for Q1 FY08 with regard to operating and net profits. Its revenue, at Rs 17.3 crore, was down by 35% YoY. PAT was Rs 1.3 crore, against a loss of Rs 40 lakh in the year-ago period. The stock is currently trading at 6x its trailing 12 months EPS of Rs 20.65.
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