Thursday, August 16, 2007

Stay in cash or go shopping?

The markets had no place to hide today from the carnage that was seen across global markets. It was an extremely weak session for the markets as they ended in deep red tracking its global peers. Sensex went down plus 600 points.

The pattern of trade over the last couple of days has been playing out in phases. Markets had paused until the next wave hit the market, which has finally arrived.

The possibility of another big cut was anticipated. The cut has come in and savagely, but there is no element of surprise there. There is still talk of another 4-5% of correction in the market, which may pan out over the next few days.

C Jayaram of Kotak Mahindra Bank believes it's going to be a bad day for markets all over and India will not be any exception. As a strategy, he advises," I would wait and watch for some time, because there is this old adage in the market - don't catch a falling knife and I think that's really the position we are going through right now. So I would say clearly would wait and watch for cues from global markets. Don't start buying unless you either get positive cues or it comes off to the extent of anywhere between 5% and 10%."

The crisis is no more sub-prime; it has spread to commercial paper. As long as there are players in India, who have exposure to other markets irrespective of how strong the Indian fundamentals are, markets will take a hit in the short run.

VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking said, "My advice would be to panic in the first minute itself rather than waiting for long. When the markets tumble with such high levels in the morning itself, one would usually see some recovery happening, but I do not see the recovery happening, because the market is going to react to two days of fall on the Dow. So our advice would be to be off the markets and take whatever losses there are in the very first minute."

Like some experts have suggested - stay in a bit of cash and when there are substantial sell offs like today, buy a little bit hoping to average the next time it falls some more. That would be the best way to approach this market.

Robert Horrocks, Head of Research at Mirae Asset Global Investment Management said, "I think we are seeing the start of some redemption that might continue for a bit. Over the next few weeks that might show up some good buying opportunities in selected stocks, but we are going to see some more redemptions coming up."

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