Holcim yesterday announced that it is making an open offer for Ambuja Cements at Rs154/share. Holcim which owns 32.3% of Ambuja Cements (ACL) has decided to buy 60m shares (3.94%) at Rs154/share from the founding families at a total cost of US $ 220 million. With this purchase, Holcim exceeds the 5% creeping acquisition limit for this fiscal and thus has to make an open offer to other shareholders under the Indian takeover code. Citigroup in its latest report states that this open offer is an exit opportunity for investors.
The Holcim announcement has helped cement stock valuations during trading today. The ACL stock price should also be supported at current levels at least until the open offer is completed. However, as indicated in our recent note dated 16 August 2007, Import Threat Looms Closer, we are concerned about the impact on sentiment and prices with cement imports likely from Pakistan in the next few weeks. Additionally, we expect a supply surplus in CY08.
Investment thesis
We rate ACL Sell/Medium Risk (3M) with a target price of Rs103. Although ACL is likely to trade at a premium to domestic peers, due to higher EBITDA margins, we believe the stock is expensive given:
(1) limited visibility on cement pricing moving up as a result of uncertainties arising from unfavorable government measures in CY07
(2) a 20% yoy expected decline in CY08E earnings as large capacities are expected domestically, particularly in North India
(3) the risk to exports, as substantial new cement capacity is coming up in the Middle East, which would convert the current deficit in that region into a surplus.
ACL is one of India's largest cement exporters (10% of sales), supplying mainly to the Middle East and Sri Lanka. We have factored in a slowdown in export volumes and pricing already, however, these could be greater than we forecast. ACL should benefit from cost savings from an additional 178MW of captive power (vs. around 200MW currently) and higher production of low-cost blended cement. But these savings are unlikely to offset the EBITDA fall expected in CY08E due to the forecast 9% yoy price decline.
Valuation
We use EV/EBITDA to value ACL, a common metric used for cement companies. We have set our target price at Rs103 based on a 10% discount to the historical seven-year average of 8.4x, which gives us an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x based on CY08E. At our target price ACL would be valued at an EV/tonne of US0 for CY08E. The 10% discount to the seven-year average is due to the unfavorable government measures that attempt to take away the last leg of pricing upside. In recognition of ACL's higher margins and efficiency, we use only a 10% discount to the seven-year average, rather than the 15% applied for ACC.
Risks
We rate ACL Medium Risk, based on our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks 260-day historical share price volatility. The key upside risks to our target price include: 1) further delays in industry capacity; 2) better-than-expected domestic demand growth; 3) a depreciation of the rupee versus the US $; we assume an appreciating rupee; and 4) changes in the duty/tax regime in favor of producers.
The Holcim announcement has helped cement stock valuations during trading today. The ACL stock price should also be supported at current levels at least until the open offer is completed. However, as indicated in our recent note dated 16 August 2007, Import Threat Looms Closer, we are concerned about the impact on sentiment and prices with cement imports likely from Pakistan in the next few weeks. Additionally, we expect a supply surplus in CY08.
Investment thesis
We rate ACL Sell/Medium Risk (3M) with a target price of Rs103. Although ACL is likely to trade at a premium to domestic peers, due to higher EBITDA margins, we believe the stock is expensive given:
(1) limited visibility on cement pricing moving up as a result of uncertainties arising from unfavorable government measures in CY07
(2) a 20% yoy expected decline in CY08E earnings as large capacities are expected domestically, particularly in North India
(3) the risk to exports, as substantial new cement capacity is coming up in the Middle East, which would convert the current deficit in that region into a surplus.
ACL is one of India's largest cement exporters (10% of sales), supplying mainly to the Middle East and Sri Lanka. We have factored in a slowdown in export volumes and pricing already, however, these could be greater than we forecast. ACL should benefit from cost savings from an additional 178MW of captive power (vs. around 200MW currently) and higher production of low-cost blended cement. But these savings are unlikely to offset the EBITDA fall expected in CY08E due to the forecast 9% yoy price decline.
Valuation
We use EV/EBITDA to value ACL, a common metric used for cement companies. We have set our target price at Rs103 based on a 10% discount to the historical seven-year average of 8.4x, which gives us an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x based on CY08E. At our target price ACL would be valued at an EV/tonne of US0 for CY08E. The 10% discount to the seven-year average is due to the unfavorable government measures that attempt to take away the last leg of pricing upside. In recognition of ACL's higher margins and efficiency, we use only a 10% discount to the seven-year average, rather than the 15% applied for ACC.
Risks
We rate ACL Medium Risk, based on our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks 260-day historical share price volatility. The key upside risks to our target price include: 1) further delays in industry capacity; 2) better-than-expected domestic demand growth; 3) a depreciation of the rupee versus the US $; we assume an appreciating rupee; and 4) changes in the duty/tax regime in favor of producers.
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