Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Market Outlook

The bulls need some positive headlines to work with and to regain momentum. But bears are getting all the right doses of information to take the market down. It was a day of bad news one after another in US markets -

· Housing continues to be a problem. Case-Shiller home price index reported a fall of 3.2% in Q2. This is the largest decline in gauge's 20-year history.

·
Credit mess is getting murky with new developments unfolding everyday. Yesterday was the day when State Street reported a possible $22 bn exposure to asset backed commercial paper conduits. Apart from that Merrill Lynch downgraded Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns. There are concerns that many of the banks may be hiding losses on hope that things may turn out better in the future.

· It seems Consumer confidence has taken a beating amidst stock market sell off and
housing market carnage. The Conference Board reported a dip in consumer confidence for the month of August to 105.0 from 111.9 in July.

· Fed meeting minutes also spoiled the mood. There is growing consensus that Fed may continue to be reactive to
financial market mess than be proactive. The meeting minutes reflected that Fed continues to be concerned on inflation than growth.

Market View - Rangebound Trading / Options Expiration week / Today may be day of chicken slaughter

You've heard of bulls and bears in the stock market. But, what about chickens? Who are cautiously bullish? The last few days' market action has made large number of market participants cautiously bullish. Well… Get ready for chicken slaughter today…..I am a veggie. So, don't get me wrong.

The roller coaster ride is back again. With options expiration tomorrow, the ride may become more head spinning than you can imagine.


Negative gap-down opening expected Nifty may open at -100 & Sensex -300.

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