Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Volatility remains the key concern

The market is likely to exhibit weak trends on the back of a strong intra-day volatile moves. The sentiment is likely to remain sluggish on weak Asian cues. Also the FIIs remaining net sellers of equities in the domestic market may see the investors remain jittery. Among the local indices, the Nifty could test higher levels at 3100 and has a support at 3000. The Sensex on the downside may slip to 10200 and may face resistance at 10450.

US indices remained flat on Monday as investors awaited the presidential election and mulled weaker oil prices, a stronger dollar and more signs that the economy is in a recession. While the Dow Jones lost 5 points at 9320, the Nasdaq moved up by 5 points to close at 1726.

The Indian ADRs had a mixed outing on the US bourses. Tata Motors tumbled over 16% and VSNL, Infosys and Satyam fell 0.25-9% each. While, MTNL, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Patni Computer, Dr Reddy and Rediff gained around 1-5% each.

Crude oil prices moved down, with the Nymex light crude oil for December delivery moved down by $3.90 at $63.91 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for December series was up by $8.60 to settle at $726.80 a troy ounce.

Daily News Roundup - Nov 4 2008

Wipro likely to buy Citigroup's subsidiary, Citi Technology Services for US$150mn. (ET)
Reliance Industries may reopen its closed petrol pumps as crude oil prices drop by over 50%. (ET)
Union Bank of India and United Bank of India, cut lending rates by 25-50bps ahead of Finance Minister's meeting with PSU bank chiefs. (BS)
Bharti Enterprises eyes US$10bn revenues by next year. (ET)
Bharti Enterprises and French insurance major AXA are planning to launch a private equity fund in India. (ET)
Nagarjuna Construction has received two orders worth Rs5.27bn. (ET)
KEC International has bagged three orders worth Rs2.2bn. (FE)
M&M has reported 17.8% yoy decline in total automotive sales in October at 20,282 units. (ET)
Tata Motors' total vehicles sales including exports declined by 20% yoy to 39,729 units. (FE)
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd has bought back 0.8mn equity shares of the company in the last four days. (BL)
Israel's Ceragon Networks has inked an agreement with Tata Tele for wireless backhaul solutions. (ET)
Wipro Infotech and Subex have jointly signed a nine-year contract with Aircel. (FE)
Reliance Retail and the UK-based supply chain powerhouse Wincanton have called off their proposed joint venture. (ET)
Religare AEGON Asset Management Company (AMC) is likely to buy out Lotus India Mutual Fund. (BS)
Wockhardt has challenged the US patent of Stalevo, a new generation combination drug for the treatment of Parkinson's disease, originated by Finland-based Orion Corporation and marketed by Novartis. (BS)
The Bombay High Court declined to stay the termination notice served by Star TV to Balaji Telefilms for one its shows. (BS)
PNB is looking at overseas acquisitions and is scouting across geographies for potential takeover targets. (BL)
Tata Steel starts work on new blast furnace for 10mn ton capacity at Jamshedpur Works. (BS)
Global spirits giant Diageo may exit its equal JV with Radico Kaitan. (ET)
SpiceJet, IndiGo and GoAir are likely to slash fares between 10% and 15% from November 15, 2008. (ET)
ACC's cement production for October 2008 declines by 1.14% yoy to 1.74mn tons. (FE)
Tata Tea plans restructure in order to operate as a single integrated beverages company in India and to enhance its global footprint through strategic acquisitions. (FE)
The Bharti Group is aiming to reduce its dependence on the telecom sector to 50% for the group's revenues by 2013. (BS)
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Private Ltd (HMSI), the wholly owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Company of Japan, plans to enhance capacity to 1.5mn units at its Manesar plant in three years.
Gujarat Pipavav Port plans to invest an additional Rs2.bn to dredge 14.5 metre draft and further improve accessibility to the port. (ET)

FM P Chidambaram assured industry that the government will ask state-owned banks to cut interest rates. (BS)
India's export growth slowed to an 18-month low of 10.4% in dollar terms at US$13.7bn in September 2008, against US$12.5bn in the same month last year. (BS)
Foreign funds sell FCCBs which are listed on some European stock exchanges and the Singapore Stock Exchange at hefty discounts issued by Indian companies. (BS)
LIC has invested ~Rs150bn in the past six months in non-convertible debentures issued by companies. (ET)
Banks shave corporates' working capital limits, which will be based on average utilization of funds in last three years. (ET)
Refiners cut jet fuel rates by 4.5% responding to the government's decision to exempt jet fuel from Customs duty. (BS)
Mutual funds see sharp shrinkage in asset base in the month of October.
Iron ore exports from the country have dropped 81% in October compared with the same period last year. (BL)
RBI said that it will repurchase dated securities — the 6.65% Government Stock (GS) 2009 and the 5.48% GS 2009 — on November,6th under the Market Stabilisation Scheme amounting to Rs100bn. (BL)
Goods and services tax (GST) to be introduced in a phased manner. (FE)
States want their share in the pool of central taxes to be increased to 50% from existing 30.5% and also Centre to bear their 50% burden while implementing the Sixth Pay Commission package. (FE)
A Parliamentary panel will meet on November 14 to discuss spectrum allocation for 2G mobile services and the launch of 3G services in the country. (ET)
The Maharashtra Government has announced that sick or closed sugar units will not be given on lease to the private sector. (FE)

Flat opening likely

It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers.

Can the bulls sustain the current tempo? That is the big question worrying most players at the moment after the recent spurt. While the main indices could advance a little more in the near term, investors are still skeptical about a sustained turnaround. That is because considerable amount of headwinds still persist, both on the local as well as global front. The US, Europe and Japan are most probably already in recession, and though the credit crunch has eased substantially, it will be a while before the global economy is back on track.

India too remains vulnerable to a sharp slowdown despite the slew of measures unleashed by the Government and the RBI to arrest the slide. Not just FY09, a few economists see continued pain for the Indian economy in the coming fiscal year as well. India Inc. is now suffering from contraction in demand and difficulties in funding capex despite the RBI's liquidity-boosting steps. Among the positive events are the correction in commodity prices and a possible reversal of the interest rate cycle. The captains of Indian Industry are hoping for some more measures from the Government and the RBI, to help revive economic growth. While that may happen, the global downturn will continue to pinch in some ways or the other.

There is also a question mark over the sustainability of the recent FII buying, notwithstanding some revival in the global risk appetite. Today, we expect the market to open on a flat to slightly higher note. There could be some softening at higher levels after the recent rally, as most Asian stock benchmarks (barring the Nikkei), are down sharply. The main US stock indices too ended almost unchanged overnight ahead of the Presidential Election on Nov. 4. European shares rose for a fifth consecutive session.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.6bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions pulled out Rs970mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs13.2bn. On Friday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs11.83bn in the cash segment.

US stocks closed nearly flat on Monday, as automakers reported dismal monthly sales and a report showed that US manufacturing activity dropped sharply in October. Investors were cautious as the race for the White House neared the finish line.

After marginal moves in either direction Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by just 5 points to end at 9,319.83, with 16 of its 30 components posting losses. The S&P 500 Index shed 2 points to 966.31, while the Nasdaq Composite index added 5 points to 1,726.33.

Market breadth was positive. But, volume was pretty thin, narrowly topping one billion on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancing stocks outpacing declining issues roughly 9 to 7.

On the eve of Election Day, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican rival John McCain are making final appearances around the country, with polls consistently showing Obama ahead in the campaign for the White House.

Pacing gains among the S&P's 10 industry groups were telecommunications shares. Retail shares were mixed ahead of sales reports due later in the week. Energy shares proved the biggest laggards.

Lending rates continued to improve amid efforts of US and world governments to get money flowing again. Treasury prices rose, lowering the corresponding yields. Oil prices slipped and the dollar gained versus other major currencies.

Meanwhile, slumping manufacturing and construction activity, and plunging auto sales, added to bets that a recession is already underway. In the afternoon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher forecast that there will be no economic growth through 2009.

Additionally, in the afternoon, the government said it will borrow a record $550bn in the fourth quarter and another $368bn in the first quarter of next year as it looks to fund the massive financial rescue plans recently put in place.

A huge drop in October auto sales left the industry on track to post the worst monthly results in 25 years. GM reported a 45% decline in October sales, versus a year ago. Ford reported October sales plunged 30% versus a year ago.

The dollar fell against the euro and gained against the yen. COMEX gold for January delivery climbed $8.60 to settle at $727.50 an ounce. Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.91% from 3.96% late on Friday.

US light crude oil for December delivery fell $3.90 to settle at $63.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline prices fell another 2.1 cents overnight, to a national average of $2.415 a gallon.

Investors were playing it cautious ahead of Election Day. Analysts say investors will be glad to have the election over and to know that a change in administration is coming, regardless of whether Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama wins.

Although Wall Street would seem to prefer business-friendly Republicans, studies have shown that stocks tend to do better under Democratic presidents than Republicans and best during times of gridlock, when one party controls the White House and another the Congress.

Across the Atlantic, European shares rose for a fifth consecutive session, as investors continued to welcome central banks' efforts to shore up sentiment.

The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% to 223.38. The French CAC-40 added 1.2% to 3,527.97, while Germany's DAX 30 advanced 0.8% to 5,026.84 and the UK's FTSE 100 closed up 1.5% at 4,443.28.

Bulls started off November with a bang led by a rally in banking, realty and capital goods stocks. Further on, firm cues from the international equity markets coupled with the PM's assurance on growth initiatives also added to market sentiment.

The upswing propelled the BSE benchmark Sensex above 10K levels to close at 10,337. While, the NSE Nifty index surged past the 3,000 mark adding 158 points to finally end at 3,043 levels.

IDFC rallied by over 12% to Rs65 after reports stated that the company was in talks with GE Commercial Finance, to acquire about 35% stake in the latter's construction equipment finance business in India. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs67 and a low of Rs60 and recorded volumes of over 61,00,000 shares on BSE.

PTC India surged by over 7% to Rs56 after reports stated that the company was looking at picking up stakes in power generation projects across the country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs57 and a low of Rs54 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on BSE.

BEL advanced by 6% to Rs641 following reports that the company plans to set up its third central research laboratory at Hyderabad, which will focus on research in emerging technologies in the fields of opto-electronics and electronic warfare. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs645 and a low of Rs622 and recorded volumes of over 7,000 shares on BSE.

Tata Chemicals gained by 5% to Rs166 after the company reported results for the second quarter ended 30 September, 2008.

The revenue stood at Rs466.1mn with an increase of 169% yoy. The profit before tax has increased by 120% at Rs58.7mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs169 and a low of Rs161 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Jyoti Ltd surged by over 3% to Rs35 after reports stated that the company has entered into technology tie-ups with German and Dutch companies for its windmill project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs38 and a low of Rs32 and recorded volumes of over 11,000 shares on BSE.

Apollo Tyres advanced by over 2% to Rs24 after reports stated that the company would begin its operations in Europe by opening its first sales, marketing and technical office in Germany in January. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs25.2 and a low of Rs23.9 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on BSE.

Zylog Systems gained by 5% to Rs115 after reports stated that it would spend US$17.5mn for acquiring three overseas companies. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs118 and a low of Rs112 and recorded volumes of over 68,000 shares on BSE.

Zee News gained by 2.5% to Rs38.7 after the company announced that it acquired 26% stake in Sky B, West Bengal, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs40 and a low of Rs37 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

Looking at Monday's rally, bulls might extend the gains atleast in the early trades. The fall in inflation and drop in crude prices may augur well for the time being but we still have to get some confidence. For the time being, avoid some fresh buying at higher levels in large quantities as we are yet to get clarity on the economy.

Precious metals bring some glaze back

Gold and silver prices rise after three sessions of drop

After three sessions of loss, gold prices ended higher on Monday, 03 November, 2008. Traders anticipated that bullion metals are done with current low levels that they have attained in recent times. Silver prices also rose today.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Losses in equity markets had also forced traders to sell gold. Since past couple of weeks, precious metals, mainly gold, had dropped as traders tried to gain back some of the money that had lost in other markets.

On Monday, Comex Gold for December delivery rose $8.6 (1.2%) to close at $726.8 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (30.5%) since then. Last week, gold prices ended lower by 1.6%. For the month of October, gold ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.

This year, gold prices have lost 12.7% till date. The dollar index has gained 13.5% this year and of that almost 8% in October, 2008 itself. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose by 2 cents (0.2%) to $9.75 an ounce. Last week, silver fell 1.9%. For the month of October, silver slipped by 20%. Till date, silver has lost 35% this year. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies. Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices and vice versa.

In the currency market on Monday, the U.S. dollar posted broad-based gains against other major currencies rising both against the British pound and the euro ahead of key interest rate decisions in Europe due later this week. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, rose 1.3% to 86.35.

On Monday, crude for December delivery closed at $63.91, lower by 5.8%. It gained 5.7% last week but ended 32.6% lower for the month of October, 2008.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 1% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in eight steps.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for December delivery closed lower by Rs 118 (1%) at Rs 11,614 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,777 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,545 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for December delivery closed Rs 180 (1.06%) lower at Rs 16,768/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,100/kg and fell to a low of Rs 16,617/Kg during the day's trading.

Crude plunges

Prices slip by almost 6% on demand concerns and firm dollar

Crude prices ended with losses on Monday, 03 November, 2008. The firm dollar and the current global crisis were the main reasons behind the subdued crude prices. Today's weak economic data also added to this.

On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for December delivery closed at $63.91/barrel (higher by $3.9 or 5.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 57% since then. Last week, prices rose by 5.7%. On a yearly basis, crude price is lower by 33%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 35.2%.

For the month of October, 2008, crude prices ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.

In the currency market on Monday, the U.S. dollar posted broad-based gains against other major currencies rising both against the British pound and the euro ahead of key interest rate decisions in Europe due later this week. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, rose 1.3% to 86.35.

Among najor economic report for the day, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index survey reported today, Monday, 03 November, 2008 that national manufacturing activity at US in October fell to the lowest level since 1982.

Specifically, the ISM Manufacturing Index declined 4.6 to 38.9 in October, which was worse than the expected reading of 41.0. The number indicates contraction in manufacturing and the overall economy. Readings below 50% in the ISM diffusion index indicate that more firms are contracting than growing. The ISM tracks the breadth of growth across firms, asking purchasing managers if business is better or worse this month than last month.

OPEC officials decided last month at its meeting at Vienna that OPEC will pare production by 1.5 million barrels a day w.e.f 1 November, 2008. The official production quota is currently 28.8 million barrels, and it cut by 1.5 million in November.

Last week, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said that global oil demand may fall for the first time in 15 years in 2008 and stagnate next year.

For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.

Against this background, December reformulated gasoline futures fell 13.3 cents to close at $1.3625 a gallon and December heating oil futures shed 10.1 cents to end at $1.9828 a gallon.

December natural gas saw a modest gain by the close. It finished at $6.838 per million British thermal units, up 5.5 cents.

At the MCX, crude oil for November delivery closed at Rs 3,167/barrel, lower by Rs 165 (4.95%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for November delivery closed at Rs 326/mmbtu, higher by Rs 5.2/mmbtu (1.6%).

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 3 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
3/11/2008 524804 AUROBINDO PH KOTAK MAHINDRA UK LTD B 280926 130.00
3/11/2008 524804 AUROBINDO PH MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITED S 354863 129.99
3/11/2008 532845 BHAGWATI BAN ANAND YOGESH SHARES AND CONSULTANCY PVT. LTD. S 149205 26.25
3/11/2008 531932 C G IMPEX DAXABEN VASANTKUMAR SHAH B 45922 4.46
3/11/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 629072 69.22
3/11/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 629072 69.38
3/11/2008 530885 JAISAL SECUR JSUBRAMANIAN B 22400 41.74
3/11/2008 532519 JK SUGAR LTD HARI SHANKAR SINGHANIA B 120000 14.30
3/11/2008 532519 JK SUGAR LTD SIDHI VINAYAK INVESTMENT LTD. S 120000 14.30
3/11/2008 532714 KEC INTERN SOPHIA GROWTH A SHARE CLASS OF SOMERSET INDIA FUND B 280000 116.00
3/11/2008 532714 KEC INTERN FIL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT HONG KONG LIMITED S 280000 116.00
3/11/2008 530273 LIBERTY PHOS ARJUN RAMESH S 51514 10.50
3/11/2008 532998 LOTUS EYE ANAND YOGESH SHARES AND CONSULTANCY PVT. LTD. B 420100 14.12
3/11/2008 532998 LOTUS EYE HARSHA R. JHAVERI S 177135 14.00
3/11/2008 532998 LOTUS EYE VICKY R. JHAVERI S 115000 13.98
3/11/2008 532469 MATHER PUMPS PELICAN PORTFOLIO B 120681 153.14
3/11/2008 532469 MATHER PUMPS QUEST PORTFOLIO S 73348 150.00
3/11/2008 512167 MATRA REALT KOTAK MAHINDRA INVESTMENTS LIMITED S 65659 3.26
3/11/2008 513446 MONNE ISPAT COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LIMITED B 1478856 157.25
3/11/2008 513446 MONNE ISPAT BSMA LIMITED S 1478856 157.25
3/11/2008 514328 NACHMO KNITE AMRAKADAMB INVESTMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED B 134514 0.90
3/11/2008 514328 NACHMO KNITE NIAGRA DISTRIBUTORS PVT LTD S 209514 0.92
3/11/2008 512047 NATRAJ FIN SHINGAR DYES AND CHEMICALS LTD B 24965 30.65
3/11/2008 512047 NATRAJ FIN BHARTI NARENDRA BAHUVA S 24767 30.65
3/11/2008 531746 PRAJAY ENG S COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LIMITED B 760000 20.85
3/11/2008 531746 PRAJAY ENG S BSMA LIMITED S 760000 20.85
3/11/2008 532675 PRITHVI INFO CREDIT SUISSE SINGAPORE LIMITED S 100000 40.90
3/11/2008 514304 S. KUMARS NAT COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LIMITED B 1724654 29.90
3/11/2008 514304 S. KUMARS NAT BSMA LIMITED S 1724654 29.90
3/11/2008 532543 SAHPETROLEUM GLOBE CAPITAL MARKET LIMITED B 338000 33.70
3/11/2008 513151 STI INDIA LI LRS PORTFOLIO AND ADVISORY SER P LTD B 217000 17.00
3/11/2008 513151 STI INDIA LI GLOBE CAPITAL MARKET LIMITED S 300000 17.00
3/11/2008 524394 VIMTA LABS L RAICHAND H.DHARAMSHI B 200000 20.30

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 3 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
03-NOV-2008,AHMEDFORGE,Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd,MSR MARKETING PRIVATE LTD,BUY,206101,36.15,-
03-NOV-2008,BAJAJFINSV,Bajaj Finserv Limited,BAJAJ HOLDINGS AND INVESTMENT LIMITED,BUY,3000000,120.00,-
03-NOV-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,FEDERATED GLOBAL INVESTMENT MGMT CORP,BUY,225450,2508.06,-
03-NOV-2008,GTOFFSHORE,Great Offshore Limited,ELEVENTH LAND DEVELOPERS PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,200000,348.01,-
03-NOV-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,ANAND YOGESH SHARES AND CONSULTANCY PVT LTD,BUY,392000,14.05,-
03-NOV-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,VICKY R JHAVERI,BUY,135,14.89,-
03-NOV-2008,PNC,Pritish Nandy Comm. Ltd.,OHM STOCK BROKER PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,94500,20.05,-
03-NOV-2008,SAHPETRO,Sah Petroleums Limited,GLOBE CAPITAL MARKET LTD,BUY,210000,33.64,-
03-NOV-2008,SAHPETRO,Sah Petroleums Limited,SETU SECURITIES LTD,BUY,198166,33.65,-
03-NOV-2008,UNIPLY,Uniply Industries Limited,HIRANAT PREMLATHA,BUY,154864,6.26,-
03-NOV-2008,BAJAJFINSV,Bajaj Finserv Limited,FID FUNDS MAURITIUS LIMITED,SELL,2856784,120.00,-
03-NOV-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,HARSHA RAJESHBHAI JHAVERI,SELL,177000,14.10,-
03-NOV-2008,LOTUSEYE,Lotus Eye Care Hospital L,VICKY R JHAVERI,SELL,115000,14.00,-
03-NOV-2008,PNC,Pritish Nandy Comm. Ltd.,TEJASVI INVESTMENTS,SELL,95000,20.05,-
03-NOV-2008,SAHPETRO,Sah Petroleums Limited,SETU SECURITIES LTD,SELL,158166,33.65,-
03-NOV-2008,UNIPLY,Uniply Industries Limited,HIRAWAT RAJENDRA KUMAR,SELL,83494,6.30,-

Post Session Commentary - Nov 3 2008

The Indian market extended its gains on heavy buying interest on the back of strong move by RBI to cut its benchmark interest rates like repo rate, CRR and SLR. Also, the firm global cues supported the move. Prime Minister''s assurance to the industry leaders that Indian banks were safe and the government will take all necessary steps to keep the economy protected from the global financial turmoil also lifted the sentiments. The NSE Nifty ended above 3,000 level and BSE Sensex above 10,300 mark. Today market started the day on pleasant note tracking firm cues from the both domestic and global arena. Stocks continued to trade higher on the back of heavy buying by fund houses as well as retailers. Post RBI''s move, the commercial banks are expected to reduce the interest rate in next few days, which in turn will boost the sentiments of the interest sensitive industries. Further, market gained more ground to end the day sharply higher. Positive European markets also contributed the positive sentiments. From the sectoral from front, all indices ended in green and most of the buying was seen in the Reality, Capital Goods, Bank, Power, Oil & Gas, Metal and FMCG stocks. Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks also ended higher with gains of more than 4% each.

Among the Sensex pack 28 stocks ended in green terrain and 2 in red. The market breadth was in favour of advances as 1970 stocks closed in green while 633 stocks closed in red and 49 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 549.62 points at 10,337.68 and NSE Nifty ended up by 158.25 points at 3,043.85. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 155.52 points 3,355.54 and by 161.99 points at 3,927.10. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,373.17 and intraday low of 10,112.66.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Reliance Infra (17.15%), DLF Ltd (14.89%), JP Associates (13.36%), Ranbaxy Lab (12.33%), SBI (11.81%), Tata Motors (11.12%), L:&T Ltd (10.78%), ICICI Bank Ltd (7.91%), NTPC Ltd (7.58%), Grasim Industries (7.30%) and HUL (7.14%).

Only two losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Satyam Computer (1.54%) and Infosys Tech (0.23%).

RBI has cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 7.5% with effective from 3rd November. It has also cut CRR, by 100 basis points in two stages to 5.5%. The first stage of CRR cut would be with effect from 25th October and the second stage would come into effect from 8th November. The central bank has also reduced the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the amount which banks are mandated to park in government securities, by 100 basis points to 24%. The SLR cut would inject about Rs 40,000 crore into the banking system.

The BSE Reality index ended up by (8.29%) or 164.04 points at 2,142.28. Gainers are Orbit Co (33.15%), Penland Ltd (14.91%), DLF Ltd (14.89%), Parsvnath (11.59%), Ansal Infra (7.12%), Indiabull Real (6.10%) and Omaxe Ltd (4.84%).

The BSE Capital Goods index gained (8.19%) or 574.61 points to close at 7,592.22 as Reliance Industrial Infra (25.37%), Lakshmi Machines (10.93%), L&T Ltd (10.78%), Crompton Greaves (10.28%), Areva (10.24%) and Elecon Eng C (9.97%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Bank index ended higher by (7.51%) or 376.15 points to close at 5,387.39 as Yes Bank (14.36%), SBI (11.81%), Kotak Bank (9.77%), Federal Bank (9.25%), Union Bank (8.87%) and Oriental Bank (7.93%) in positive territory.

The BSE Power index surged (6.48%) or 102.62 points at 1,685.99. Gainers are Lanco Infra (21.37%), Reliance Infra (17.15%), Torrent Power (12.34%), Crompton Greaves (10.28%), Neyveli LIG (9.68%) and Siemens Ltd (9.36%).

The BSE Oil & Gas index gained (5.67%) or 351.50 points to close at 6,547.12. Major gainers are Reliance Natural Resources (23.42%), Aban Offshore (10.94%), HPCL (9.20%), Essar Oil Ltd (8.55%), Cairn India (7.43%) and ONGC Ltd (6.11%).

The BSE Metal index ended higher by (4.75%) or 254.77 points at 5,622.37. Major gainers are Wespan Guajrat Sr (12.92%), Guajrat NRE C (10.00%), Jindal Saw (8.29%), Tata Steel (7.21%), SAIL (5.78%) and Hindalco (5.48%).

Sensex up 21.4% in four days

A surprise rate cut by the central bank over the weekend, the stock market regulator's decision to increase tenure for lending and borrowing of stocks, and firm Asian stocks, boosted the domestic bourses. The BSE Sensex rose 549.62 points or 5.62% led by gains in capital goods, banking, auto and realty stocks. The market also got support from the Prime Minister assurance to business leaders that government will take measures to protect growth.

Lower rates boosts stocks as they help lift corporate bottomline by way of lower borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday, 1 November 2008, unexpectedly cut its main short-term lending rate viz. the repo rate for the second time in as many weeks to ease a growing cash squeeze, spur faltering economic growth and fend off damage from the global financial crisis.

The Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi)'s decision to extend the tenure for lending and borrowing of stocks is aimed making the domestic stock lending and borrowing (SLB) mechanism more robust and increase liquidity in the secondary markets. Short selling refers to selling of shares one does not own and a SLB mechanism facilitates this activity.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told top business leaders on Monday, 3 November 2008, that the government will take all the necessary monetary and fiscal policy measures to protect growth. The Prime Minister also said the government was working closely with other countries to ensure coordinated policy action for the containment of the global financial crisis.

European shares rose on Monday, 3 November 2008, to track gains on the Wall Street and in Asia, as investors hoped recent worldwide steps to stem the financial crisis and likely rate cuts in Europe this week would calm market nerves. The key benchmark indices in France, UK and Germany were up by between 0.38% to 0.81%.

Asian stocks edged up for a fifth straight day on Monday on hopes policy efforts so far to dampen the impact of the financial crisis would ultimately take hold, though data still painted an ugly picture of the global economy. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea rose by between 1.44% to 3.93%. China's Shanghai composite fell 0.52%.

The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 549.62 points or 5.62% to 10,337.68. The market rose amid intermittent bouts of profit taking after a recent steep surge. The Sensex jumped 585.11 points at the day's high of 10,373.17 in late trade. The Sensex rose 324.60 points at day's low of 10,112.66 in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 158.25 points or 5.48% to 3,043.85.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,668 crore today as compared to a turnover of Rs 3,717.17 crore on Friday,31 October 2008.

Nifty November 2008 futures were at 3047.65, at a premium of 3.80 points as compared to spot closing of 3043.85. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 34,113.94 crore, which was lower than Rs 36,959.23 crore on Friday, 31 October 2008.

The market has staged a solid rebound after a recent steep fall. From a low of 8,509.56 on 27 October 2008, the BSE Sensex has risen 1,828.12 points or 21.48% in four trading sessions. There has been a massive erosion in investors' wealth this year. The barometer index BSE Sensex is down 10.017.99 points or 49.38% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 10,869.09 points or 51.25% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 4.86% at 3,355.44 and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 4.3% at 3,927.10. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Realty index (up 8.29% to 2,142.28), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 8.19% to 7,592.22), the BSE Bankex (up 7.51% to 5,387.39), the BSE Power index (up 6.48% to 1,685.99), the BSE PSU index (up 6.14% to 4,845.25), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 5.67% to 6,547.12) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE IT index (up 0.43% to 2,874.36), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.52% to 2,104.51), the BSE Auto index (up 2.24% to 2,745.82), the BSE Teck index (up 2.66% to 2,218.95), the BSE HealthCare index (up 2.86% to 2,858.04), the BSE FMCG index (up 4% to 1,871.90), and the BSE Metal index (up 4.75% to 5,622.37), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,970 shares advanced as compared to 633 that declined. 49 shares remained unchanged.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) jumped 4.84% to Rs 1,437.05 on 20.77 lakh shares, on reports its retail arm Reliance Retail and UK-based supply-chain firm Wincanton have called off their proposed joint venture (JV). Wincanton withdrew from the JV after it thought RIL was unlikely to meet its initial growth projections and generate expected volumes, a media report quoted sources as saying. The stock was highly volatile hitting a high of Rs 1448.80 and a low of Rs 1397.10 in the day.

Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 12.33% to Rs 190.35) and Jaiprakash Associates (up 13.36% to Rs 81.45) were the major gainers from the Sensex pack.

Reliance Infrastructure galloped 17.35% on reports the promoter may raise stake beyond 50% to ward off a hostile takeover bid and was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack.

India's second largest telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communications rose 5.41% to Rs 232.65. In a volatile trade, the stock after hitting a high of Rs 237.70 in early trade, hit a low of Rs 221.50 in mid-morning trade, only to bounce back again in late trade.

Capital goods stocks jumped. Larsen & Toubro and Suzlon Energy rose by between 3.37% to 10.78%. India's largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) jumped 4.65% to Rs 1341.15 on reports of seeking an expression of interest for turbines and generators of 700 megawatt and above for nuclear power plants. The stock after a firm start slumped to a low of Rs 1278.60 in mid-afternoon trade but surged in late trade to hit a high of Rs 1,378.

Banking stocks were boosted by the Reserve Bank of India's latest initiative to prop up liquidity in the financial system, with hopes lower rates will boost lending. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank jumped 7.91% as American depository receipt (ADR) spurted 7.18% on Friday, 31 October 2008 in US. The bank's ICICI Bank's chief executive K.V. Kamath today the bank will review interest rates in the next few days.

India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India rose 11.81%. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank gained 4.61%, as ADR jumped 1.41% on Friday.

India's largest home loan lender by operating income HDFC rose 7.2%.

Many PSU banks rose. Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDBI Bank, Canara Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Allahabad Bank, IndusInd Bank rose by between 1/36% to 8.87%.

Besides a cut in the repo rate, the central bank took other liquidity boosting measures on Saturday, including a cut banks' cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points to 5.5%. The RBI also cut banks' statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 100 bps to 24% of their deposits with effect from 8 November 2008.

The CRR is the percentage of deposits which the banks must keep with the central bank. The CRR cut is expected to release Rs 40000 crore into the system. The SLR is the ratio of government bonds and other approved securities that banks have to hold as a percentage of their total deposits.

The central bank today said it would conduct a special 14-day money market operation for mutual funds and non-banking finance companies (NBFC) on Monday, 3 November 2008, for a cumulative amount of Rs 60000 crore ($12.2 billion) to help meet their liquidity needs.

Auto stocks jumped on hopes lower interest rates may spur sales which are largely driven through finance. India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 11.12% even sales fell 20% in October 2008 over October 2007, the largest drop in at least four years, as tighter lending and a slowing economy damped demand for commercial vehicles.

India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 6.62% even as total sales fell 6.21% at 64,490 units in October 2008 over October 2007. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra rose 3.14%.

India's largest motorbike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors fell 3.06% on fall of more than 3% in sales at 3,52,449 units in October 2008 over October 2007.

Bajaj Auto slumped 8.56% after October 2008 motorcycle volumes fell 34% at 1.63 lakh units against 2.48 lakh units in the same month last year.

IT stocks were mixed amid weak ADRs and a stronger rupee. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Satyam Computer Services fell 1.54% to Rs 300.10, off the day's high of Rs 319, as ADR fell 2.24%. The company won a SAP implementation contract in Kuwait from First Holding, a leading business group that handles multiple businesses in Kuwait.

India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Wipro rose 1.51% even as ADR declined 5.26%. India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys slipped 0.23% to Rs 1378.10 off day's high of Rs 1,457, even as ADR gained 0.03%.

India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services rose 2.09% to Rs 548.70 , on reports of entering genetic diagnostics and medicine after clinching some pharma deals in the last two years.

A stronger rupee affects IT firms negatively as they earn most of their revenues in dollar terms. The rupee rose in opening deals after the rate cut by the central bank and took liquidity boosting measures over the weekend. The partially convertible rupee was at 49 per dollar, compared to Friday's close of 49.44/46.

Rate sensitive realty stocks rose on hopes lower interest rates would spur demand for residential poperties. Indiabulls Real Estate, DLF and Unitech rose by between 1.98% to 14.89%.

Housing Development & Infrastructure fell 4.06% even as net profit rose 15.8% to Rs 265.68 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

Nagarjuna Construction Company rose 4.69% on bagging two orders aggregating to Rs 527 crore from two different clients.

IVRCL Infrastructure & projects moved up 22.85% extending gains for the second day in a row, boosted by strong quarterly performance.

Steel stocks spurted after government, on Friday, 31 October 2008, withdrew export duty on items such as pig iron, iron and steel ingots, bars and rods on Friday, 31 October 2008.. Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren rose by between 1.71% to 7.21%.

As per latest reports, India's leading steel producers have slashed prices of their products by up to Rs 6,000 a tonne to ward off the threat of cheaper imports from countries like China and Ukraine amid a dip in demand. State-run Steel Authority of India, along with private producers Essar Steel and JSW Steel, announced lowering of prices while the biggest private sector producer Tata Steel is still weighing its options.

Iron ore miner Sesa Goa jumped 3.61% after government rejig the tax structure to improve the export competitiveness of the mining industry. The 15% ad valorem export duty on iron ore fines has been replaced with a specific duty of Rs 200 a tonne. However, the export duty on iron ore lumps has been kept unchanged at 15%.

Gujarat NRE Coke spurted 10%, as net profit surged 718.73% to Rs 102.75 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

PSU OMCs rose as crude oil prices fell. BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil Corporation rose by between 3.8% to 7.73%. Lower oil prices will reduce underrecoveries at the state-run oil firms on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene at a controlled price.

Crude oil fell as reduced imports by Asian refiners reinforced concerns that a demand slowdown is spreading to emerging markets. Crude oil for December 2008 delivery dropped as much as $1.27 or 1.9 %, to $66.54 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.

Jindal Drilling & Industries galloped 9.49% on BSE, on bagging a large order for rig deployment.

Airline stocks spurted after the government scrapped the basic customs duty of 5% on jet fuel and after oil firms slashed jet fuel prices. SpiceJet, Kingfisher Airlines and Jet Airways jumped by between 4.81% to 22.57%.

The sale price of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) has been reduced by 15-17% across the four metros. This will help bring down costs of domestic airlines. In the near term, it will reduce their losses. In the medium term it may lead to fare reductions. This is primarily because fuel constitutes 45-50% of the operating cost of most domestic airlines.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest volume of 2.13 crore shares on BSE. Suzlon Energy (1.54 crore shares), Cals Refineries (99.9 lakh shares), GVK Power & Infrastrucutre (90.16 lakh shares) and Unitech (88.04 lakh shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 295.41 crore on BSE. HDFC (Rs 178.20 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 148.26 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 140.81 crore) and State Bank of India (Rs 133.65 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Advanta India was locked at upper limit of 20% to Rs 535.65 on BSE, extending gains for the second successive session on strong Q3 September 2008 numbers.

Ipca Laboratories rose 2.05% as the company mulls share buyback.

Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics was locked at 5% upper limit at Rs 35.15 at 10:33 IST on BSE, as net profit surged 275.10% to Rs 60.77 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

ABG Shipyard galloped 9.02% after the company bagged its first rig order.

Winning streak continues

The market continued to add to its value for the fourth consecutive session as firm Asian indices and strong buying in frontline stocks helped the sentiment remain bullish for the whole trading session. After accumulating over 1,300 points in the last three sessions, the Sensex opened marginally above its previous close and rallied sharply to touch an intra-day high of 10,373. While, the market remained well above 10,100 mark in the first half, it came off the high, as traders booked profits at higher levels. However, resumption of buying at lower levels in realty and capital goods (CG) stocks towards the close saw the Sensex recover from its lows. The Sensex finally ended the session with a gain of 550 points at 10,338, while Nifty added 158 points to close at 3,044.

The market breadth was neutral. Of the 2,652 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,968 stocks advanced whereas 634 stocks declined. Fifty stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Realty jumped 8.29% followed by BSE CG (up 8.19%), BSE Bankex (up 7.51%) and BSE Power (up 6.14%).

Most of the heavyweights ended with solid gains though some select frontline stocks closed with marginal losses. Among the blue chips, Reliance Infrastructure shot up by 17.15% at Rs535.10, DLF soared 14.89% at Rs253.05, JP Associates surged 13.36% at Rs81.45 and Ranbaxy Laboratories advanced by 12.33% at Rs190.35. State Bank of India (SBI) added 11.81% at Rs1,240.55, Tata Motors moved up 11.12% at Rs190.90 and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) scaled up 10.78% at Rs892.25. Among the laggards Satyam Computer Services fell 1.54% at Rs300.10 and Infosys Technologies slipped 0.23% at Rs1,378.50.

Realty stocks shone in today's trades and closed with strong gains. Orbit Corporation vaulted 33.15% at Rs70.70, Peninsula Land soared 14.91% at Rs23.50, DLF surged 14.89% at Rs253.05 and Parsvnath Developers advanced by 11.59% at Rs45.25.

Over 2.13 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Suzlon Energy (1.54 crore shares), Cals Refineries (0.99 crore shares), GVK Power & Infrastructure (0.89 crore shares) and Unitech (0.87 crore shares).

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Punj Lloyd

Punj Lloyd's financial performance over the last two quarters amply demonstrates its ability to weather tough macro-economic conditions. The current trend of softening commodity prices and clear signals on interest rates softening from here on may further support the company's earnings growth.

Investors with a 2-3-year investment perspective can consider adding the stock of Punj Lloyd. At the current market price, the stock trades at a modest valuation of about 9.5 times its estimated consolidated earnings for FY09. The current valuations provide a good entry point into the stock. The company's earnings grew at 48 per cent compounded annually over the past three years.

The consolidated sales for the quarter ended September 2008 rose 53 per cent while net profit was higher by 61 per cent over a year ago. Net profit growth, excluding profit on sale of its ISP division (pending approval), was at 45 per cent. The company's strong performance comes on the back of diversified business operations across several nations, a strategy that has enabled it to beat threats of a slowdown.

For instance, while revenue contribution from pipeline and process plant segment continues to remain significant in the latest quarter, its proportion to total sales has declined. Instead, the company's infrastructure segment, further strengthened by its Singapore-based acquisition, has made a higher contribution. This segment's increased contribution is visible in the order book as well.

Punj Lloyd has also made headway in geographic diversification, having significantly ramped up presence in South-East Asian and Asia-Pacific regions.

Over the past few quarters, infrastructure stocks have been beaten down on fears of higher raw material and borrowing costs hurting earnings. A mild slowdown in order book in the June quarter also sent the earnings estimates spiralling downwards for the company. Punj Lloyd has done well to cross these hurdles.

In the latest quarter, the proportion of raw material to sales witnessed a decline, improving operating profit margins by 50 basis points to 9.3 per cent. Interest cost too was comfortably covered by higher profits. Order inflows during the quarter, at Rs 5,600 crore, were more than double September 2007 levels.

The company's current order book of Rs 21,700 crore (2.8 times FY08 sales) from cash-rich clients is likely to provide revenue visibility over the next 18 to 24 months. Beyond this period, new ventures such as defence equipment, onshore drilling and strategic stake in a shipyard are likely to expand the revenue stream. While a subsidiary has bagged its first onshore drilling contract, a further decline in crude oil prices may pose a threat to the rental income.

Titagarh Wagons

Investments with a two-three year perspective can be considered in Titagarh Wagons (TWL), a leading private sector wagon manufacturer.

Our investment argument stems from the relatively stable business opportunities available in the rail sector arising from setting up of dedicated freight corridors, sustained capex by leading container rail logistics companies and introduction of wagon leasing scheme.

All these factors hold considerable merit in today's scenario as many mid and small-sized manufacturing companies are already facing a slowdown in demand. On that note, TWL's revenues appear comparatively cushioned.

Not only is the demand for wagons stable, the fact that TWL has a long-standing relationship with both the Indian Railways (IR) and private players also lends considerable credence to its growth potential.

Valuations

From a long-term perspective, the recent meltdown in the broad markets has rendered the company's valuations quite attractive.

At the current market price of Rs 399, the stock now trades at about 10 times its likely FY09 per share earnings, down significantly from the PE multiple (of 17 times) it enjoyed at the time of its initial public offering in March this year. That there has been no significant mark down in capex, by either the IR or leading container rail logistics players such as Concor and Gateway Distriparks (GDL) in the interim period, suggests that there may be sufficient room for expansion in its price-earnings multiple from the current levels.
Wagon demand buoyant

The demand for wagons is largely driven by the capital expenditure incurred by the Indian Railways. That IR has moved to positive earnings territory over the last couple of years and given that railway spending has little linkage to the global economic slowdown (in recent times, the passenger traffic using railways has increased significantly) suggests that its budgetary spending on revamping its infrastructure and adding to its wagon fleet in the coming years may well continue.

This bodes well for TWL since IR had intended to procure an all-time high of about 20,000 wagons in the coming years. Another factor that adds up favourably for TWL is the high replacement demand from IR. To increase its share of the freight traffic, IR plans to substitute its older wagons with ones that have a higher axle load design and are made of stainless steel and aluminium.

The entry of new private players in container rail logistics is also a positive. While it may take a while for the demand from private players to ramp up, this space offers a huge business potential for wagon manufacturers (industry estimates peg it at about Rs 2000 crore).

The growing consensus that interest rates may have peaked and will begin to taper from hereon may also support demand. On that note, the wagon investment scheme, which seeks to provide 10 per cent rebate on normal freight charges to wagon owners and guaranteed supply of rakes every month, may also sustain demand.

Besides this, introduction of wagon-leasing scheme, which allows third-parties to invest in wagons and lease them, may also help.

In addition to all this, TWL has recently started the manufacture of Electric Multiple Units (EMUs), which are widely used for the passenger transport by the Railways. While only a nascent business presently, it holds the potential to become a significant revenue spinner for TWL in the coming years.
High barriers to entry

Given the high entry barrier in this business, private wagon manufacturers are likely to reap the benefits arising from near term opportunities. This is because IR's procurement policy stipulates that three-fourth of its orders should be placed with players on the basis of their past five years' track record. That straightway eliminates the threat of TWL losing any significant market share to newer players.

On the other hand, TWL may well procure incremental business from the Railways in the coming years since it is presently investing in doubling its wagon manufacturing capacity. That the capacity expansion will be funded through the IPO money raised by the company also does away with concerns regarding any high reliance on debt for expansion. The only bottleneck in this business is the limited availability of axle and wheel sets given the supply constraints of the domestic railways-approved wheel set manufacturers.

sThis, the company plans to circumvent by setting its own axle machining and wheel set assembling plant.
Financials

On a compounded annual basis, TWL has in the last four years grown its revenues and profits at 76 per cent and 97 per cent respectively.

Operating profit margins, during this period, have expanded by over 2.6 percentage points to 15.5 per cent.

Though TWL has presence in HEMM (heavy earth moving and mining equipment) and steel castings (captive consumption) businesses, we expect a bulk of its revenue growth to come from the wagon manufacturing division.

To that extent, it leaves little scope for expansion in margins and realisations as IR fixes the price of wagons on the basis of the lowest bid (L1) it receives.

Indian Bank

Investors can consider accumulating the stock of Indian Bank, as the bank is backed by good fundamentals, robust advances and operating profit growth. The stock trades at a modest valuation, of about one time its September 30 book value and 5.3 times its trailing 12-month earnings.

Indian Bank, a small-sized public sector bank with more than 40 per cent of its total branches in Tamil Nadu, trades at a premium to peers such as Corporation Bank, Vijaya Bank, Dena Bank and Andhra Bank. The valuations are justified because of the high-quality diversified loan book, 100 per cent CBS-enabled operations, superior profitability ratios, strong net interest margin (NIM) and significant headroom to raise capital in future.

Financials

Indian Bank's balance-sheet has grown at a 17 per cent compounded annual growth rate while its advances grew at 26.5 per cent over the past five years. Indian Bank, which faced a major crisis in the mid-1990s, was turned around through a re-capitalisation done by the government through the issue of bonds; consequently, the bank had more of its deposits parked in investments.

But the successive managements' attempts to improve the bank's profitability without compromising on the quality of assets, have helped it perform better than most of its peers.

Indian Bank has posted strong operating profit growth of 44 per cent in the half year ended September 30, but has reported muted net profit growth of 9 per cent. Operating profit growth did not translate into higher net profits due to higher provisions and tax outgo.

The bank is expected to maintain its momentum, given the advances growth it had managed to clock in tough economic conditions.

In the September quarter, the bank's advances growth, combined with higher NIM (net interest margins) boosted net interest income by 44 per cent year-on-year. The NIM improved from 3.23 per cent to 3.86 per cent, on the back of increased yield on advances and lower cost of funds. Increased yield on advances was on expected lines as the bank has increased its PLR during the September quarter.

The bank saw its interest income component decline from Rs 232 crore to Rs 212 crore in the September quarter, mainly due to a decline in profit on sale of investments (down from Rs 66 crore to Rs 3 crore).

Non-recurring items such as recovery of bad debts also formed a major component of 'other income'. Operating expenses were flat, with the bank already putting in place investments in technology; the cost-income ratio moderated to 40 per cent from 54 per cent last year. The net profits may grow at a higher rate from here on as there will be bond provision write-backs. Higher treasury income and growth in 'other income' will contribute to the bank's growth but the AS-15 retirement benefits for the next four years will weigh on earnings.
Loan book

Indian Bank's loan book is focussed mainly on mid/large corporate (50 per cent), retail advances (18.5 per cent), SME advances (10.7 per cent) and agriculture advances (15 per cent).

The advances growth of the bank is contributed by the corporate credit (57 per cent) and SMEs (44 per cent). Retail credit, as a proportion of advances, has come down from 20 per cent to 18 per cent, Y-o-Y. That the incremental growth in advances was contributed by as many as 32 sectors, is a good sign and indicates a diversified loan book.

Deposit growth of 20 per cent was slower Y-o-Y, as the bank deliberately reduced bulk deposits during the first half of this fiscal, improving its CASA. The credit-deposit ratio rose substantially from 60 per cent to 73 per cent during the year.
Asset Quality

The bank's net NPA/advances of 0.18 per cent places it among the best banks based on asset quality. The provision coverage, which is as high as 81 per cent, will cushion the bank from adverse impacts. The bank's capital adequacy ratio stands at 11.2 per cent with tier-1 capital 10.1 per cent (which is at comfortable levels). The government's stake of 80 per cent may help the bank raise capital, once market conditions turn more favourable.
Outlook

The bank's performance till date is ahead of its FY-09 targets and the management is planning to go slow on advances from hereon, as a matter of caution. But with the expectation of interest rates coming down and with income from other avenues hard to come by, bank credit may be the key avenue to deliver reasonable growth.

The bank's 100 per cent CBS will continue to help it contain operating costs and boost 'other income'. Indian Bank's 'other income' component at 28 per cent of the net revenue, is low and suggests scope for improvement.

The bank's mark-to-market provision on its bond portfolio, taken in a rising interest rate environment, may be written back in coming quarters if interest rates fall, helping profits. Like other banks, Indian Bank too is a beneficiary of the farm debt waiver reimbursement and the CRR cut.

The recent RBI measures such as CRR cut of 350 basis points, repo rate cut of 150 basis points and SLR cut of 1 percentage point will help ease liquidity for the whole banking system. The bank will get around Rs 2,200 crore from the CRR cut. The transitional liability for AS-15 retirement provisions of Rs 92 crore every year for the next four years may, however, pressure profits.

RBI cuts CRR and repo rates

After infusing Rs 1,85,000-crore liquidity into the banking system, the RBI on Saturday effected yet another 100 basis points cut in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and a 0.5 percent reduction in key short-term lending (repo) rate, signaling softening of interest rates to prop up growth.

The one percentage point cut in CRR, the amount which banks have to park with the apex bank, has been brought down to 5.5 percent to infuse additional liquidity of Rs 40,000 crore into the system.

The CRR cut will be in two tranches and the first one of 0.5 percent will be effective retrospectively from October 25 and the second from November 8.

The RBI also cut the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, by 0.5 percent to 7.5 percent with effect from November 3.

The central bank has also reduced the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the amount which banks are mandated to park in government securities, by 100 basis points to 24 percent.

Welcoming the decision, ICICI Bank Joint Managing Director Chanda Kochhar said, "it will release much needed liquidity into the system and signal reduction in interest rates."

The SLR cut would inject about Rs 40,000 crore into the banking system.

To provide further comfort on liquidity and to impart flexibility in liquidity management to banks, the Central Bank has introduced a special refinance facility to scheduled commercial banks.

Under this facility, the banks will be able to borrow short-term funds from Reserve Bank up to a maximum period of 90 days.

The RBI also said that it would continue to sell foreign exchange (US dollars) through agent banks to augment supply in the domestic foreign exchange market or intervene directly to meet any demand-supply gaps.

"The Reserve Bank would either sell the foreign exchange directly or advise the bank concerned to buy it in the market. All transactions by the Reserve Bank will be at prevailing market rates and as per market practice," the apex bank said.

The apex bank, has also, "as a temporary measure" decided to permit systemically important non-deposit-taking non-banking financial companies (NBFCs-ND-SI) to raise short-term foreign currency borrowings under the approval route.

This is, however, subject to their complying with the prudential norms on capital adequacy and exposure norms, it said.

It has also decided to conduct buy-back of market stabilisation scheme (MSS) dated securities so as to provide another avenue for injecting liquidity of a more durable nature into the system.

Earlier, under the MSS, government securities had been issued to sterilise the expansionary effects of forex inflows.

But now, with considerable forex outflows, it has been decided to conduct buy-back of MSS dated securities, the RBI said.

This would be calibrated with the market borrowing programme of the government and the securities proposed to be bought back and the timing and modalities of these operations would be notified separately, the RBI said.

Weekly Newsletter - Nov 1 2008

We had suggested last week that you could get greedy when others are fearful and thankfully, the festival of lights did bring in a lot of brightness to the market. Stocks have bounced back as if the world's woes are over. We all know that the worse may not be over as yet but Friday saw fireworks across the board. Falling inflation, cooling crude and a host of measures by governments and central banks augur well for the economy in general and the market sentiment in particular. However, a reversal in FII flows remains the big trigger for our markets. Till that happens, confidence levels may continue to remain lower. Our research team has prepared an India Infoline Model Portfolio (IMP). In uncertain times like this, we suggest you stick to a couple of stocks from the model portfolio and gradually build up your positions as the situation improves. At every sharp rise, keep booking some profits.

Outbound M&A deals valuation by 76% in April- Aug 08: ASSOCHAM

Global slowdown has not only cast its shadow on Its, telecom, power but also Parma as of 72 cross border outbound deals that these sectors concluded in April-August 2008, reduced their valuation by 76% as compared to 54 such outbound deals recorded in the same period in fiscal 2007, according to ASSOCHAM assessment.

The total number of outbound mergers and acquisitions during the first five months of current fiscal stood at 72 with a total value of US$ 3727.48 million against 54 deals worth US$ 15544.96 million during the same period in last year, points out the ASSOCHAM analysis adding that their was a decline in outbound M&A activities by 76.02%.

Releasing the Paper, the ASSOCHAM President, Mr. Cajon Jindal said that despite global slowdown which adversely affected IT and Its the most, a total 32 M&A activities happened between April-August 2008 of which 5 were inbound, 18 outbound and 9 domestic. This was followed by Pharmaceutical sector in which 5 inbound, 11 outbound and 5 domestic M&A took place.

In telecom, total 15 M&A activities happened of which 3 were inbound, 9 outbound and 3 domestic. In power sector, only 2 outbound and 1 domestic M&A happened. In other sectors, 21 inbound, 32 outbound and 27 domestic M&A took place. Interestingly, the pharmacy sector witnessed only 6 inbound and 5 outbound between April-August 2007 as against 4 in telecom. IT and IteS witnessed a total of 13 M&A activities between April-August 2008 of which 9 were outbound and4 domestic.

The major mergers and acquisitions occurred in pharmaceuticals, finance, telecom, IT & ITES and power sector. During the first five months of FY '09, pharmaceutical sector topped the list with 38.69 per cent of the total valuation of M&A deals that took place in India, telecom sector accounted for 17.41 per cent, while IT and power sector accounted for 15 per cent and 8.44 per cent respectively.

S&P says India outlook stable

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of India. The outlook on the long-term rating remains stable. The ratings on India reflect the country's strong economic growth prospects and its deep government debt market, which helps accommodate its weak fiscal position. "India's economic prospects remain strong with growth likely to average more than 7.0% in the medium term," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Takahira Ogawa. "Underpinning that growth is the gradual deregulation of the industrial sector, continued trade liberalization, a dynamic service sector, and modest improvements in infrastructure."

"The ratings on India remain constrained by a weak fiscal profile, especially the high government debt burden and deficit, which are still among the largest for rated sovereigns," Mr. Ogawa said. Commitment to fiscal consolidation across all levels of government has been one of the supporting factors for the sovereign credit rating in the past several years. However, higher oil prices and populist measures for the coming general election have weakened the government's efforts in fiscal consolidation.

The stable rating outlook balances India's good external liquidity and growth prospects with its weak fiscal flexibility. An improvement in the sovereign ratings will depend on resumed fiscal consolidation that leads to a materially lower debt and interest burden, and additional reforms that lift the country's growth prospects and income levels. On the other hand, further fiscal slippage, a marked decline in external liquidity indicators, or policy measures that weaken economic growth prospects, could lead to downward pressure on the ratings.

The consolidated debt of India's central and state (general) governments is projected at 82% of 2008 GDP, while interest payments are likely to consume about 30% of general government revenue. India's contingent liabilities are also high. Government-guaranteed debt alone amounts to nearly 9% of 2007 GDP.

Inflation drops..

The brakes seem to be coming on the galloping inflation which rose 10.68% in the week to Oct. 18 from a year earlier after gaining 11.07% in the previous week. Expectations were it would be around 10.8%. India's annual inflation rate eased to a 4-½ month low in mid-October and could be in single digits before the end of 2008. It was the lowest annual rate since May 31, the week before a hike in state-set retail fuel prices pushed inflation into double digits. Prices are falling in India because of waning consumer demand and a decline in commodity prices. RBI last week reduced its economic-growth forecast to as low as 7.5% from 8% in the year to March 31.

With crude prices cooling and prices of most commodities falling, expectations are inflation may fall to single digit by the end of November itself.

Fed cuts rates.can it drop below 1%

The Federal reserve dropped key interest rate from 1.5% to 1% in a bid to boost economic growth and increase the availability of credit. This cut follows a 50-basis-point reduction earlier in the month. The Fed's statement points to tight credit amid market turmoil, as well as declines in consumer spending, business equipment spending, and industrial production. The Fed also expressed a new concern about weakened economies abroad "damping the prospects for U.S. exports." The big question is whether rates can go below 1%? The last time rates were at 1% was between June 2003 and June 2004.

…So does China, South Korea

China's Central Bank cuts deposit lending rates by 27bps to 6.66% from 6.93%, the People's Bank of China stated on its web site. The deposit rate drops to 3.60% from 3.87%. This is the third time in two months China has cut rates.

Bank of Korea lowered the seven-day repurchase rate to 4.25%. This is the largest-ever rate reduction following last week`s carnage in stock and currency markets. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae lowered the seven-day repurchase rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%. This was the largest-ever rate reduction in its history, following a more than 20% decline in South Korean shares in the past week. Bank of Korea also cut rates on special loans for small and medium-sized companies to 2.5% from 3.25%, the central bank said. It will also accept bonds issued by commercial banks as collateral in its money-market operations.

…And Bank of Japan too cuts rate

The Bank of Japan cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.3%. The deciding vote was cast by Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to lower the key overnight lending rate from 0.5 % to 0.3%. Four of the eight board me

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Oct 31 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
31-OCT-2008,CCCL,Consolidated Construction,ARGONAUT VENTURES,BUY,200000,285.00,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,626663,57.46,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,ROBECO INSTITUTIONEEL EMERGING MARKETS QUANT FONDS,BUY,1643224,58.29,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,SHARAD SHAH,BUY,1010230,52.48,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,485512,57.37,-
31-OCT-2008,GUJNRECOKE,GUJARAT N R E COKE LTD,ROBECO INSTITUTIONEEL EMERGING MARKETS QUANT FONDS,BUY,2476247,30.16,-
31-OCT-2008,HINDALCO,Hindalco Ind Ltd.,RETAIL EMPLOYEES SUPERANNUATION TRUST,BUY,8865000,57.99,-
31-OCT-2008,MAHLIFE,Mahindra Lifespace DevLtd,SWISS FINANCE CORP MAURITIUS LTD UBS SECURITIES,BUY,316000,188.94,-
31-OCT-2008,MTNL,Maha Tel Nigam Ltd.,BANK OF NEW YORK MACQUARIE BANK LTD,BUY,3000000,62.17,-
31-OCT-2008,NAUKRI,Info Edge (India) Limited,EQUINOX PARTNERS LP,BUY,170000,437.24,-
31-OCT-2008,ALOKTEXT,Alok Industries Limited,ROBECO CAPITAL GROWTH FUND,SELL,1060000,17.20,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,702765,58.08,-
31-OCT-2008,COREPROTEC,Core Projects and Technol,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,529791,56.73,-
31-OCT-2008,TRIVENI,Triveni Engineering & Ind,TOFSL TRADING AND INVESTMENTS,SELL,2615139,34.25,-
31-OCT-2008,VIMTALABS,Vimta Labs Limited,TATA MUTUAL FUND,SELL,145572,18.07,-

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Oct 31 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
31/10/2008 532811 AHLUWALIA CO GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 500000 27.92
31/10/2008 590061 BRUSHMAN IND IVORY CONSULTANTS PVT LTD. B 90000 54.78
31/10/2008 590061 BRUSHMAN IND NANDESHWAR FINTRADE PVT LTD S 80000 54.88
31/10/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND ARISAIG PARTNERS ASIA PTE LTD SUB AC ARISAIG INDIA FUND LTD B 1400000 140.00
31/10/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO LTD RELIANCE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN B 98857 140.00
31/10/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND DB INTERNATIONAL ASIA LIMITED S 1021539 140.01
31/10/2008 522059 CHAMPAGN IND CROWN CAPITAL LIMITED S 518553 140.00
31/10/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 1020042 56.59
31/10/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT H.J. SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 574149 55.82
31/10/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 1020042 56.69
31/10/2008 512199 CORE PROJECT H.J. SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 574149 56.10
31/10/2008 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT KAUSHAL NIRANJAN SHAH B 25000 6.50
31/10/2008 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT RICHILINE FINVEST PRIVATE LTD S 31800 6.45
31/10/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN S K INVESTMENT B 30000 311.24
31/10/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN KARSANDAS LAXMIDAS DANANI B 19000 300.00
31/10/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN MALKA S CHAINANI S 48900 306.88
31/10/2008 532855 HARYA CAPFIN BRAHMA DEV HOLDING AND TRADINGLTD. B 250375 23.00
31/10/2008 532855 HARYA CAPFIN ODD AND EVEN TRADES AND FINANCE PVT. LTD S 250375 23.00
31/10/2008 530885 JAISAL SECUR TATIA FINAANCIAL SERVICES LTD S 33970 41.90
31/10/2008 530813 KRBL LTD SOMNATH AGARWAL S 300000 61.47
31/10/2008 512167 MATRA REALT KOTAK MAHINDRA INVESTMENT LTD S 98106 3.48
31/10/2008 526407 RIT PRO IND RAJENDRA PRASAD CHOWDHURY B 47301 48.28
31/10/2008 532404 SAVEN TECHNO LRS PORTFOLIO AND ADV SER P LTD S 74089 3.57
31/10/2008 500231 UMANG DAIR SARITADEVIDADAWALA B 100000 3.20
31/10/2008 531266 VST TILLER T PRASHANTSHRIMAL B 29311 122.40
31/10/2008 531396 WOMEN NETWKS SUNILKUMAR CHANDRAPRAKASH SHAH B 37000 3.66

Shut the ... Govt to Assocham

Taking strong exception to industry chamber Assocham's forecast that a quarter of people in certain key sectors will lose jobs in the next ten days, government on Friday said the economy is poised for the other way.

"The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and my colleague Jairam Ramesh (Minister of State for Commerce) have taken serious exceptions to an Assocham report... The pace of job creation may slow down but that doesn't mean that jobs are being destroyed," Finance Minister P Chidambaram told reporters here.

The Minister further said another industry chamber FICCI too had contradicted the Assocham study, which had said that in the next ten days or so about 25 to 30 percent employees are likely to lose jobs in seven sectors including aviation, information technology, steel, financial services, real estate, cement and construction.

Chidambaram further said that 7 percent growth rate, the lowest projection made by experts, would "create more job than was done in entire NDA regime, when the growth was only 5.8 percent. Why this question was not raised when the economy was growing at 5.3 percent?"

Replying to questions on the recent report on slowing of the US economy, the Minister said, "when the world output slows down, the growth in developed countries slows down... it will have an indirect impact on India."

However, he added, "the India economy is domestic consumption and investment driven economy. Exports will play a significant role but not as much as they do in China."

Pointing out that at the moment it was difficult to estimate the impact of global economic slowdown on exports, Chidambaram said in April-August 2008-09 it grew by 35.1 percent though September showed a slight dip.

"We will see as we go along... but we are not happy that any country's economy should contract. We want all countries' economies to grow," the Minister said adding India was not happy with slowing down in the US economy. "But it is there... that's a reality," he said.

With regard to the inflation rate, which has come down to below 11 percent after four months, the Minister said, "let us hope the measures that we have taken will have an impact."

The annual rate of inflation has come down to 10.68 percent for the week ending October 18.

Replying questions on India's stand on G-20 meeting on global economy, Chidambaram said, "it is being formulated and hopefully we will be able to give some details in the next few days."

Finance Minister earlier in the week held a meeting of experts, including RBI Governor D Subbarao, SEBI Chairman C B Bhave and former RBI Governors C Rangarajan and Bimal Jalan among others, to formulate the views on global financial crisis that India would take at the G-20 meeting called by US President George Bush in Washington on November 15.

Growth will fall, but no job cuts - PC

The Indian economy would grow at 7 percent despite the global economic meltdown but this would not mean a reduction in existing job levels, Finance P Chidambaram said Friday.

"The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) estimates that growth (in fiscal 2008-09) would be at 7 percent. I think it would be at 7.5 percent but definitely would not be lower than 7 percent," Chidambaram told reporters here.

"Growth at 9 percent (as was originally anticipated) would signal rapid creation of jobs. Growth at a lower rate does not imply a destructive employment situation," the finance minister maintained.

"It is for this reason that I disagree with a (industry lobby) Assocham (Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry) study (saying that Indian corporates would cut jobs by 25 percent due to the global financial crisis)," Chidambaram said.

"The pace of creating jobs might slow down, but even at 7 percent, jobs will be created," he added.

Responding to a question on the impact of the crisis on India's exports, Chidambaram said he couldn't "elaborate" on this.

Asked what India would bring to the table at the G-20 meeting US President George Bush has called in Washington next month to deal with the financial crisis, the finance minister replied: "We are formulating our response."

Post Session Commentary - Oct 31 2008

The Indian market ended the day on strong note on heavy buying interest over the ground. Drop in inflation number for the fifth successive week and firm global markets lifted the sentiments. Market rose more than 8% also on speculation that RBI may ease monetary policy following rate cuts across the world, including in the US, China and Japan this week. Bank of Japan cut rates for the first time in seven years, to 0.30% from 0.50% joining global efforts to ease the financial crisis. Today market started the session after a holiday with handsome gains tracking positive cues from global markets. Stocks continued to gain ground on continued buying across the board. However, market gave up some of initial gains during afternoon on profit booking, but further gathered momentum and continued its northward journey till end. The buying support was seen across all the sectoral indices mainly led by the Metal, Oil & Gas, Bank, Capital Goods, IT and Auto stocks. Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks were also on buyers'' radar.

Among the Sensex pack 28 stocks ended in green terrain and 2 in red. The market breadth was in favour of advances as 1577 stocks closed in green while 916 stocks closed in red and 82 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 743.55 points at 9,788.06 and NSE Nifty ended up by 188.55 points at 2,885.60. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 105.54 points 3,200.02 and by 90.50 points at 3,765.11. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,870.42 and intraday low of 9,361.66.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are M&M Ltd (23.09%), HDFC (17.48%), JP Associates (16.55%), ICICI Bank (15.50%), Sterlite Industries (14.48%), Reliance (13.81%), Reliance Communication Ltd (13.76%), Hindalco (13.26%), Tata Steel (12.14%) and Tata Power (11.86%).

Only two losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Ranbaxy Lab (1.97%) and TCS Ltd (0.93%).

Inflation for the week ended 18th October 2008 came in at 10.68% as against 11.07% of previous week. It stood at 3.11% in the year-ago period. Inflation declined for the fifth consecutive week along with decline in inflation rate of three commodity groups - primary articles, fuel and manufactured products.

The BSE Metal index ended higher by (10.20%) or 496.73 points at 5,367.60. Major gainers are JSW Steel (32.70%), Jindal Steel (15.33%), Sterlite Industries (14.48%), Hindalco (13.26%), Tata Steel (12.84%) and Wespan Guajrat Sr (8.92%).

The BSE Oil & Gas index gained (9.11%) or 517.29 points to close at 6,195.62. Major gainers are Reliance (13.81%), Aban Offshore (13.20%), Essar Oil Ltd (11.10%), Cairn India (10.85%), Reliance Petroleum (6.61%) and Reliance Natural Resources (5.83%).

The Bank index closed higher by (7.21%) or 336.90 points to close at 5,011.24 as ICICI Bank (15.50%), Yes Bank (8.81%), HDFC Bank (8.25%), Bank of India (8.11%), Axis Bank (6.59%) and Canara Bank (5.09%) in positive territory.

The BSE Auto index ended up by (6.39%) or 161.22 points at 2,685.62. Gainers are M&M Ltd (23.09%), Bosch Ltd (15.08%), Tata Motors (9.11%), Escorts Ltd (8.69%), Apollo Tyre (5.05%) and Cummins India (4.59%).

The BSE IT index surged (5.77%) or 156.17 points at 2,861.94. Gainers are HCL Tech (13.97%), Rolta India (12.17%), NIIT Ltd (9.69%), Moser Bayer (9.12%), Oracle Fin (8.37%) and Satyam Computer (7.61%).

The BSE Capital Goods index gained (5.00%) or 333.90 points to close at 7,017.61 as Usha Martin (17.62%), Walchand In (8.77%), BHEL (8.72%), Praj Industries (8.39%), Havells India (7.85%) and Jyoti Structures (6.53%) ended in negative territory.

Up for third day

The Sensex continued to move up for the third consecutive day with the index registering smart gains on buying in heavyweight and sectoral stocks. The 30-stock benchmark index of the BSE was above 9,300 points at the starting bell and touched the high at 9,870. However, it pared the gains on selling in heavyweights and shed sharply to touch the low of 9,362 towards the close. The Sensex came close to testing 9,400 towards the day's close, but ended the session with a gain of 744 points at 9,788. Nifty gained 189 points to close at 2,886.

The breadth of the market was marginally positive. Of the 2,574 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,574 stocks advanced, whereas 919 stocks declined. Eighty one stocks ended unchanged. Of the 13 sectoral indices, BSE Metal surged 10.20% to 5,367 followed by BSE Oil & Gas (up 9.11% to 6,195) and BSE Bankex (up 7.21% to 5,011). The remaining indices also ended higher.

Among the gainers, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) advanced 23.09% to Rs372.35, HDFC surged 17.48% to Rs1,764, JP Associates added 16.55% to Rs71.85, ICICI Bank advanced 15.50% to Rs399.35, Sterlite Industries gained 14.48% to Rs282.20, Reliance Industries jumped 13.81% to Rs1,370.75 and Reliance Communications was up 13.76% to Rs220.70. However, Ranbaxy Laboratories dropped 1.97% to Rs169.45 and Tata Consultancy Services declined 0.93% to Rs537.45.

Over 1.68 crore Suzlon Energy shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Hindalco Industries (1.34 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.00 crore shares), Unitech (84.98 lakh shares) and Core Projects & Technologies (81 lakh shares).

Nifty November 2008 futures above 2900

Turnover declines

Nifty November 2008 futures were at 2915, at a premium of 29.40 points as compared to spot closing of 2885.60. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 36,959.23 crore, which was lower than Rs 54,223.24 crore on Wednesday, 29 October 2008.

Reliance Industries November 2008 futures were at premium at 1380 compared to the spot closing of 1375.45.

Bharti Airtel November 2008 futures were at premium at 662.90 compared to the spot closing of 653.75.

Infosys Technologies November 2008 futures were at discount at 1387 compared to the spot closing of 1388.95.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 188.55 points or 6.99% at 2885.60.

Asian markets ends October with optimism

Nikkei plunge by 5% despite a rate cut from BoJ while Sensex, Sydney ends the session higher


The stock markets across the Asian region closed mixed despite a positive lead from Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up by 189 points, to 9,180. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished higher by 41 points at 1,698. S&P 500 finished higher by 24 points at 954.

Oil prices continued to fall on concern that the decline in the U.S. economy will curb fuel demand in the world's largest energy user. Oil retreated, taking this month's decline to 36%, after the U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday that gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter at the biggest annual pace since 2001.

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as $2.61, to $63.35 a barrel. By 0855 GMT, Brent crude for December delivery was down $2.88 a barrel at $60.83. Oil's monthly decline may pass February 1986 as the worst month ever, when it dropped 30 percent to $13.26 a barrel.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar was quoted in the upper 96-yen levels in late Tokyo deals, down from the lower 98-yen levels in early trade and the upper 98-yen range late Thursday.

The Australian dollar ended the local session down 2.2%, as weaker commodity prices and a decision by Japan's central bank to cut interest rates lowered demand for riskier currencies. The Aussie closed at US$0.6711-0.6716, down from Thursday's close of US$0.6859-0.6864.

The New Zealand dollar finished the domestic session lower at US$0.5880, after failing twice to push back above US$0.60 for the first time in a week, compared to Thursday's close of US$0.5925.

The South Korean won fell against the greenback for the first time in three days. The won finished the session at 1,291.0 a dollar compared to Thursday's close of 1,250.0 a dollar. Yesterday, the won posted its biggest gain against the greenback in a decade following a currency swap deal with the U.S.

The Philippines peso swinged back to the P48-to-the-dollar territory due to the US Federal Reserve's hefty rate cut in its key policy rate, which followed that of China. Currently the peso was trading at P 48.92.

Coming back in equities, Asian stocks posted their biggest monthly fall in October, with commodity-related stocks being routed on worries over global demand. The Japanese market plunged 5.0% after the Bank of Japan announced its first rate cut in seven years, while the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 2.5 per cent, but the stock markets in Australia and South Korea recovered to finish in positive terrain.

The Japanese stock market closed sharply lower, snapping a three-day winning streak. The market opened lower on profit taking following Thursday's rally and extended its losses in a late sell-off despite the Bank of Japan cutting its short-term interest rate for the first time in seven years. The financial markets in Japan will remain closed on Monday for a Culture Day national holiday.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 5.01% or 452.8 points to 8,576.98, well below the key 9,000 level. The broader Topix index of all first-section issues also fell 32.3 points or 3.59% to close 867.12. Despite Friday's drop, stocks ended in positive territory for the week following Fed rate cut and a weaker yen. For the week, the Nikkei has gained a record 12% and the Topix rose 7%.

The Bank of Japan trimmed its key interest rate to 0.3% from a decade-high 0.5%, though the cut was by a split vote and was smaller than the market had expected. The move came under government pressure to join the global response to the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

Among a series of economic released today, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said that core consumer prices in Japan rose 2.3% on year in September, moving higher for the twelfth consecutive month. Core CPI, excluding volatile fresh food prices follows a 2.4% annual expansion in August. Overall inflation was unchanged in September at 2.1%. Tokyo core CPI for October, considered a leading indicator for the nationwide trend, climbed 1.5% on year after a 1.7% annual increase in the previous month. Minus food and energy costs, Tokyo CPI was up 0.4% after a 0.5% annual gain a month earlier.

Activity in Japan's manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth straight month, according to the latest survey from Nomura Holdings and the JMMA. The group's Purchasing Managers Index dropped to a seven year low of 42.2 in October, lower than the 50.0 reading that separates contraction in the sector from expansion. The accompanying PMI industrial production index fell in October to 39.7, also the lowest since December 2001.

Meanwhile, Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.0% in September, down from 4.2 percent in August. The jobs-to-applicants ratio for September stood at 0.84; meaning 84 jobs were available per 100 applicants. The ratio, which matched a low hit in August 2004, compared with a consensus forecast of 0.85 and was down from 0.86 in August. The number of new job offers fell 13.4 percent from a year earlier after a 21.3 percent drop in August.

Soaring inflation and gaining unemployment affected the purchasing power of the people's as overall household spending fell 2.3% in September from a year earlier in price-adjusted real terms, a smaller fall than the median market forecast for a 3.9% decrease. Compared with August on a seasonally adjusted basis, spending rose 1.7%.

The average household spent 281,433 yen ($2,856) according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Spending by wage earners' households fell 3.4 percent in September from the same month a year ago.

In Mainland China, the stock market closed sharply lower, reversing most of yesterday's gains on broad based sell off across the board amid persistent worries over corporate earnings after more listed firms posted weak third-quarter profits and on deepening domestic economic worries. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 34.82 points, or 1.97%, to 1,728.78, off the day's high of 1,765.50 and low of 1,721.77. The index lost 110.84 points, or 6.03%, in the week and 565 points, or 24.63%, in October

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index extended losses by tumbling 2.52% or 361.18 points to 13,968.67, after adding more than 3,300 points in the previous three sessions, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gave up 2.26% or 152.89 points to 6,611.15. on the month the Hang Seng index lost about 22% , the biggest monthly fall since October 2007.

In Australia, the stock markets closed session slightly higher. After starting off weak on the back of lower commodity prices, stocks saw some strength in the afternoon session and finished in positive territory. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 16.9 points or 0.42% at 4,018.0, extending its gains for the third consecutive trading session. The broader All Ordinaries index rose 25.40 points or 0.64% to finish at 3,982.70.

On the economic front, sales of new homes in Australia fell for a third straight month in September, though the Housing Industry Association (HIA) saw reason for optimism on the future given sharp cuts in interest rates since then. The HIA said total sales fell a seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent in September, on top of a 1.3 percent drop in August. Private detached house sales fell by 2.3 percent, outweighing a 1.2 percent rise in the volatile multi-unit sector.

In New Zealand, the stock market closed sharply higher, extending its gains for the third consecutive trading session. The benchmark NZX 50 index closed up 58.0 points or 2.10% at 2,820.9 and the broader NZX All Capital index rose 62.4 points or 2.20% to 2,868.8.

The South Korean stock market finished sharply higher after bargain hunting gathered momentum in the afternoon session. After remaining range bound in morning trade, stock saw some strength in the afternoon session and closed firmly in positive territory, extending their gains following yesterday's 12% jump. The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index or Kospi closed up 28.34 points or 2.61% at 1,113.06. The index is down some 23 percent on the month but up 18.5% on the week, posting its biggest weekly gain ever.

On the economic front, a central bank report showed that South Korean manufacturers' confidence dropped to the lowest level in nearly five years in November, as companies expected a global economic downturn to hurt their business. The business survey index for manufacturers' expectations declined to 65 in November from 78 in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the National Statistical Office said that South Korea's industrial output grew at a faster pace in September on solid gains in exports of video-audio products and transportation equipment. According to the agency, industrial production expanded 6.1% year-over-year in September compared to a dismal 1.9% advance in August.

In Singapore, the benchmark Straits Times Index was 7.71 points, or 0.43%, lower to 1,794.20. On economic front, Singapore's jobless rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent in the third quarter after seasonal adjustments compared to the previous quarter, confounding expectations firms will cut hiring amid the financial crisis. Employment rose by 57,800 in the third quarter, lower than the 71,400 jobs created in the second quarter, the manpower ministry said in preliminary data on Friday.

In Taiwan the markets closed sharply higher as hopes for expanded transport and other links with China helped the market extend yesterday's upswing following a central bank rate cut. Negotiators from Taiwan and China will hold a fresh round of talks in Taipei next week, following which they may seal agreements for closer air and marine links.

Taiex, the weighted index closed up 187.02 points or 3.99% at 4,870.66, off a low of 4,659.67 and a high of 4,911.80. The market ended the week 6.36% higher, trimming its monthly decline to 14.84%.

In Thailand, the benchmark Set index gained by 7.23 points or 2.57% closing the day at 288.76. On economic front, Thailand's private consumption index rose 5.9% in September from a year earlier after a revised 4.2% rise in August and a 9.3% rise in July. The index rose 1.0% in September from August after a revised 0.3% fall in August and a 3.4% rise in July. In another data release, Thailand's trade account showed a $142 million surplus in September after a $675 million deficit in August and a $762 million deficit in July.

In Philippines, the benchmark index PSEi escalated 4.62% or 86.16 points to 1,951.09, while the all share index was up 3.82% or 46.91 points to 1,272.57.

In India, bulls tightened their grip as key benchmark indices spurted to hit new intraday high in late trade on rally in index heavyweights. As per the provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was up 806.46 points or 8.92% to 9.850.97. The index jumped 825.91 points at the day's high of 9.870.42 in late trade. The Sensex rose 317.15 points at day's low of 9,361.66 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 208.20 points or 7.72% to 2,905.25 as per the provisional figures.

On economic front, the wholesale price index (WPI)-based year-on-year inflation dropped to 10.68% in the week ended 18 October from 11.07% in the previous week. Following the steady decline in headline inflation, economists expect inflation to enter single digit domain by end-November 2008.

In other regional markets, European shares fell, bringing an end to three sessions of gains, with warnings from U.K. telecommunications firm BT Group and cosmetics giant L'Oreal pacing the decline. On a national level, the U.K. FTSE 100 index dropped 1% to 4,248.47, the German DAX 30 index fell 0.6% to 4,839.48 and the French CAC-40 index declined 1.5% to 3,355.43.

On the economic front, in Italy the producer prices fell 0.5% in September compared with August and rose 7.3% year-on-year.

The weekly data release calendar will end today by releasing personal consumption expenditure for the month of September, which will be followed by quarterly employment cost index. It will be followed by the data on personal income and spending in the month of September. In the evening we will have Chicago's purchasing managers index and Reuters consumer sentiment index for the month of October. Canada will release its monthly indicator showing the economic growth in the month of August.