Friday, August 3, 2007

Limited buying conviction seen

The markets rallied mildly after a slam dunk session of Wednesday as is expected in a relief rally after a crack in the sentiments. The upmove was lacking conviction owing to lower traded volumes ( down 28 % ) over the previous session. That implies a short covering rather than aggressive fresh buying that lifted the markets on Thursday. 
 
The market breadth was marginally positive as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio stood at 1944 : 1729. 
 
The capitalisation was also positive as the combined exchange figures stood at Rs 10308 crore : Rs 2896 crore. The derivatives figure indicate a 1.76 per cent decline in open interest and a mild drop in the shorts. 
 
The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as bulls preferred to unwind at higher levels as break-even levels were achieved. That constitutes overhead supply which limits the upsides in the markets after a sharp decline. 
 
The intraday range specified for the Nifty for Thursday at the 4225 / 4444 levels was not tested in either direction as the previous sessions volatility was significantly higher than the recent average, thereby, resulting in wider targets in either direction. 
 
The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4400 on advances and 4310 on declines. Japanese candle chartists will note the "long legged doji" formation on Thursday. Coming after a steep decline, it could be a sign of minor comfort as bulls are attempt to apply the brakes on the declines. 
 
Being a weekend session, expect a limited buying conviction as traders may prefer to wait for the weekend cues from the US markets before enhancing commitments. The coming session being a weekend one, avoid taking an aggressive stance especially for fresh long positions.

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